By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD started the Queens Jubilee weekend breaking below the 1.54 level to close at 1.5372
European manufacturing PMI was released today, with most countries hitting or exceeded forecast, except for Switzerland and the UK which reported below forecast, with the largest dip coming in the UK.
The economy of the UK has been suspect for several weeks and has kept the pound depressed.
News flows from Spain, Italy and Greece were to the minimum and attention for most of the later part of the day was turned to the US where investors were expecting some big numbers, only to get major disappointments.
The rapid deterioration in risk appetite is concerning and suggest there is more turmoil ahead; however periods of risk aversion tend to be short and violent, accordingly we are more likely to see a resolution before the end of June. Yesterday, there was some relief for euro when rumors of the IMF providing Spain with funds circled; however since then news has been concerning particularly as it highlights that the current crisis is not just about Europe but instead is a global growth problem. In this environment the USD is strong. Today, the USD remained strong but there was a shift to gold predicting a move by the Feds.
To sum up the US for the past two days, there is just one thing to say, “Spring stall” most of the indicators from the US have been negative or lackluster.
Employment data is terrible, Unemployment data is just as bad, Housing data is negative overall. Durable goods and retail sales, consumer confidence and manufacturing have all turned negative.
If it wasn’t for the mess in Europe, investors would be fleeing the US. Today, the Nonfarm data showed that the US only added 69,000 jobs, when it needs to average 200,000 additions per month. Unemployment has climbed back to 8.2%. GBP was revised downward this week and ISM manufacturing reported below forecast.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data for June 1, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun. 01 |
KRW |
South Korean CPI (YoY) |
2.5% |
2.5% |
2.5% |
|
JPY |
Capital Spending |
3.30% |
1.30% |
7.60% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese Manufacturing PMI |
50.40 |
52.20 |
53.30 |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Man PMI |
48.40 |
48.70 |
||
|
CHF |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
0.1% |
2.0% |
4.7% |
|
|
CHF |
SVME PMI |
45.4 |
46.4 |
46.9 |
|
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
44.7 |
44.4 |
44.4 |
|
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
45.2 |
45.0 |
45.0 |
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
45.1 |
45.0 |
45.0 |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
45.9 |
49.7 |
50.2 |
|
|
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
11.0% |
11.0% |
11.0% |
|
|
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
GDP (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.3% |
-0.2% |
||
|
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
69K |
150K |
77K |
|
|
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
8.1% |
8.1% |
|
|
USD |
Average Weekly Hours |
34.4 |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
|
USD |
Private Nonfarm Payrolls |
82K |
160K |
87K |
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
53.5 |
53.9 |
54.8 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 5 |
9:00 |
EUR |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.3% |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
German Factory Orders m/m |
2.2% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
53.5 |
|
|
Jun 6 |
6th-8th |
GBP |
Halifax HPI m/m |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Construction PMI |
55.8 |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
German Industrial Production m/m |
2.8% |
|
|
12:30 |
EUR |
ECB Press Conference |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q |
-0.5% |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
|
18:00 |
USD |
Beige Book |
||
|
23:01 |
GBP |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y |
-3.3% |
|
|
Jun 7 |
7:00 |
CHF |
Foreign Currency Reserves |
235.6B |
|
7:15 |
CHF |
CPI m/m |
0.1% |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Services PMI |
53.3 |
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
Asset Purchase Facility |
325B |
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
Official Bank Rate |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
TBD |
GBP |
MPC Rate Statement |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
383K |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies |
||
|
Jun 8 |
8:30 |
GBP |
PPI Input m/m |
-1.5% |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Consumer Inflation Expectations |
3.5% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-51.8B |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 31 14:30 Sweden
Jun 04 10:00 Norway
Jun 05 00:30 Japan
Jun 05 09:30 Belgium
Jun 05 14:30 Sweden
Jun 06 09:30 Germany
Jun 06 09:30 Portugal
Jun 06 14:30 UK
Jun 07 00:30 Japan
Jun 07 08:30 Spain
Jun 07 08:50 France
Jun 07 09:10 Sweden
Jun 07 15:00 US
Jun 08 10:00 Belgium
Jun 08 15:30 Italy
Click here for updated GBP/USD News.
Originally posted here
