By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: While the ranges are wider (and so should stops be), the lines are rather distinctive, especially towards the borders of the long term wide range. This pair makes for good trades, with the new austerity program implemented in the UK, the GBP is moving more on Fundamentals now.
- The interest rate differential between the Bank of England(BoE) and the Federal Reserve
- High yield and attractive growth in the UK drives GBP/USD higher
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The GBP/USD ended the week at 1.5688 exactly 1 cent higher than it started, which is hard to explain. In the US this week there was little in the way of eco data and what there was fairly positive. The overall riding factor is the dreams of monetary easing from the Feds, which is a way off yet, but the USD seems to be falling on the hopes. Whereas the same can be said in the UK, even after the Bank of England downgraded growth and inflation, and Governor King all but said there would be no interest rate reduction this year, the UK markets are still hoping for monetary easing and lower interest rates.
Economic data in the UK was negative all week, ranging from retail sales to industrial production.
It is amazing that the GBP is still standing.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Aug 10, 2012 |
1.5688 |
1.5630 |
1.5701 |
1.5578 |
0.37% |
|
Aug 09, 2012 |
1.5630 |
1.5667 |
1.5686 |
1.5606 |
-0.24% |
|
Aug 08, 2012 |
1.5668 |
1.5612 |
1.5676 |
1.5574 |
0.36% |
|
Aug 07, 2012 |
1.5612 |
1.5587 |
1.5684 |
1.5565 |
0.15% |
|
Aug 06, 2012 |
1.5588 |
1.5653 |
1.5653 |
1.5547 |
-0.42% |
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weeklyreports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of Aug 6-10 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Aug 6 |
GBP |
Halifax HPI m/m |
-0.6% |
-0.5% |
0.8% |
|
EUR |
Sentix Investor Confidence |
-30.3 |
-30.8 |
-29.6 |
|
|
GBP |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y |
0.1% |
1.4% |
||
|
Aug 7 |
CHF |
Foreign Currency Reserves |
406.5B |
365.1B |
|
|
CHF |
CPI m/m |
-0.5% |
-0.5% |
-0.3% |
|
|
EUR |
Italian Industrial Production m/m |
-1.4% |
-1.0% |
1.0% |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production m/m |
-2.9% |
-4.0% |
1.2% |
|
|
EUR |
Italian Prelim GDP q/q |
-0.7% |
-0.7% |
-0.8% |
|
|
EUR |
German Factory Orders m/m |
-1.7% |
-0.9% |
0.7% |
|
|
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
-0.2% |
-0.7% |
||
|
Aug 8 |
CHF |
SECO Consumer Climate |
-17 |
-4 |
-8 |
|
EUR |
German 10-y Bond Auction |
1.42|1.8 |
1.31|1.5 |
||
|
EUR |
German Industrial Production m/m |
-0.9% |
-0.8% |
1.7% |
|
|
USD |
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q |
1.6% |
1.5% |
-0.9% |
|
|
USD |
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q |
1.7% |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-3.7M |
-0.6M |
-6.5M |
|
|
USD |
10-y Bond Auction |
1.68|2.5 |
1.46|3.6 |
||
|
Aug 9 |
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-10.1B |
-8.5B |
-8.4B |
|
USD |
Trade Balance |
-42.9B |
-47.4B |
-48.0B |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
361K |
371K |
367K |
|
|
USD |
Mortgage Delinquencies |
7.58% |
7.40% |
||
|
Aug 10 |
EUR |
French Industrial Production m/m |
0.0% |
0.4% |
-2.1% |
|
GBP |
PPI Input m/m |
1.3% |
1.4% |
-2.9% |
|
|
USD |
Import Prices m/m |
-0.6% |
0.1% |
-2.4% |
|
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-69.6B |
-103.0B |
-59.7B |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 1.6747 USD on April 28, 2011.
Average: 1.5751 USD over this period
Lowest: 1.4229 USD on May 20, 2010.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Aug 14 |
5:30 |
EUR |
French Prelim GDP q/q |
0.0% |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Prelim GDP q/q |
0.5% |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-22.3 |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales m/m |
-0.4% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
PPI m/m |
0.1% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
-0.5% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Business Inventories m/m |
0.3% |
|
|
Aug 15 |
12:30 |
USD |
Core CPI m/m |
0.2% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
7.4 |
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
Industrial Production m/m |
0.4% |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-3.7M |
|
|
Aug6 |
9:00 |
CHF |
ZEW Economic Expectations |
-42.5 |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
CPI y/y |
2.4% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Building Permits |
0.76M |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
361K |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.76M |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-12.9 |
|
|
Aug 17 |
6:00 |
EUR |
German PPI m/m |
-0.4% |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Current Account |
10.9B |
|
|
13:55 |
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.3 |
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