Thursday, October 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are weaker U.S. stock index futures prices, solidly lower gold prices and a firmer U.S. dollar.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Gold has been hammered lower this week and hit a fresh 14-month low overnight. Prices are now poised to push below major psychological support at $700.00 an ounce. The recent plunge in gold prices is an ominous warning to other commodity market bulls. Commodity price deflation is at work in the world’s major economies.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading as the bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday’s low of 872.50.00 and then at 865.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 923.00 and then at 950.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 953.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 914.80
1st Support:——– 860.50
2nd Support:——– 818.20
1st Resistance:—– 957.10
2nd Resistance:— 1,011.40
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,209.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the contract low of 1,190.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,263.25 and then at 1,300.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,308.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,259.35
1st Support:—— 1,197.70
2nd Support:—— 1,147.35
1st Resistance:— 1,309.70
2nd Resistance:— 1,371.35
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday’s low of 8,300 and then more stops just below support at 8,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,500 and then just above resistance at 8,600. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,658
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,561
1st Support:—— 8,296
2nd Support:—— 8,036
1st Resistance:— 8,821
2nd Resistance:— 9,086
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are firmer early today. Bulls have fresh upside near-term technical momentum as near-term lows are likely in place.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115 24/32 and then at 115 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 116 17/32 and then at 117 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 8/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 115 28/32
1st Support:—– 115 8/32
2nd Support:—– 114 5/32
1st Resistance:– 116 31/32
2nd Resistance:– 117 19/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 115.18.0 and then at 115.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 115.00.0 and then at the overnight low of 114.22.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115.17.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 114 29/32
1st Support:—– 114 16/32
2nd Support:—– 113 24/32
1st Resistance:– 115 21/32
2nd Resistance:– 116 2/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Bulls are still very strong. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight and the contract high of 86.38 and then at 87.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 85.50 and then at 85.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 84.76. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading and hit another fresh contract low overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight contract low of 1.2717 and then just below support at 1.2650. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2800 and then at 1.2900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3019. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today and hit a fresh 14-month low overnight. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $720.00 and then at the overnight high of $735.20. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $704.00 and then at $700.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $745.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today on tepid short covering. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $68.50 and then just above resistance at 70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $66.20 and then more sell stops just below support at $65.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading, amid mixed “outside markets”–a firmer U.S. dollar and firmer crude oil prices. Grain market bears still have the near-term technical advantage amid worldwide economic recession fears.
