Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned systematically bullish on 9/20/12, when its 50-day SMA rose above its 200-day SMA.
Industrial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2-years, thereby confirming its preexisting major downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 6-weeks and remains systematically bullish.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA, thereby turning systematically bearish again
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,460.26) fell 0.79 points or 0.05% on Thursday.
RSI(14) for the SPX fell slightly. RSI remains in the overbought zone that has marked previous stock market highs. Now at 70.00, RSI(14) is nearly 2 standard deviations above its 20-year average.
NYSE volume eased slightly lower, down less than 1%, to a level 10% below its 200-day SMA. Average volume has been trending down for more than 6 years, since 6/30/2006, and fell further in September, 2012, reflecting diminishing enthusiasm for stocks. NYSE Volume 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA both fell to their lowest levels in 13 years last week, on Tuesday 9/11/12, and both are still trending downward.
The technical condition of the stock market does not support the excessive optimism of the bullish majority of stock investors and traders. Although, over the past 3 months, those who gambled on Fed and ECB threats to print money out of thin air have won, that does not mean that stock prices will continue to rise now that the news is out. Typically, action is followed by reaction, and so a downside correction seems overdue. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.
Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 5/17/12 when both Industrials and Transports closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months, including the critical lows of March and April, 2012. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose above its closing price highs of the previous 4-years on 9/20/12, but the Dow-Jones Transportation Average fell to a low level, closer to its lows than to its highs for the year, 2012, thereby demonstrating non confirmation and bearish divergence.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 9/14/12, thereby turning systematically bullish again. QQQ/SPY remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been above its 200-day SMA since 8/5/11.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 9/13/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. BKF/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 9/13/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. EEM/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 9/7/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. EFA/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 1/14/11.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 6-weeks on 9/20/12. OEF/SPY turned systematically bullish again on 9/17/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. OEF/SPY remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/24/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. IWM/SPY fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/18/12, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 4/20/12.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. MDY/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been below its 200-day SMA since 6/6/12.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1428.98, low of 9/10/2012
1426.68, high of 8/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1401.65, 50-day SMA
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1352.99, 200-day SMA
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below its lows of the previous 10 months on 9/14/12. UUP closed below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, turning systematically neutral. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. UUP ‘s 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11, but that 50-200 spread is narrowing. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.36, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index turned systematically bullish on 9/13/12 when its 50-day SMA crossed above its 200-day SMA. CRB remains above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) turned systematically neutral suddenly on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. DBA remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains above its 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12. USO’s 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA, although that 50-200 spread has been narrowing since 8/3/12. Support 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned systematically bullish on 9/20/12, when its 50-day SMA rose above its 200-day SMA. GLD rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 9/14/12. GLD turned systematically neutral on 8/3/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 4/17/12. The 50-200 SMA spread is narrowing, however, and a bullish crossover appears probable in days ahead. Support: 166.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 170.06, 172.23, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/13/12 . The GDX/GLD 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11, although that 50-200 spread is beginning to narrow.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 6 months on 9/18/12. SLV price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. The price 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. The 50-200 SMA spread is narrowing, and a crossover appears probable in days ahead. Support 32.77, 31.46, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. SLV/GLD remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing since 8/22/12, however, and a bullish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead if the SLV/GLD ratio remains strong.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 9/14/12. JJC rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/21/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. Price rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/7/12. JJC remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. The 50-200 SMA spread has begun to narrow over the past few weeks, however. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this strengthening from bearish to neutral may be suggesting less pessimism about prospects going forward.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.20% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
17.46% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
6.01% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
4.99% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
3.50% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
0.45% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
4.26% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
3.21% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
2.86% , SEE , SEALED AIR
1.41% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
0.84% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
1.32% , AGN , ALLERGAN
1.84% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
1.08% , BMS , BEMIS
1.83% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
1.03% , FISV , FISERV
0.71% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
2.15% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
1.49% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
0.83% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
0.75% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
0.91% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
2.46% , GCI , GANNETT
0.72% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
0.27% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.26% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
1.18% , WMB , WILLIAMS
0.69% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
1.56% , SPLS , STAPLES
0.96% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
0.46% , TE , TECO ENERGY
0.74% , AEE , AMEREN
0.78% , RAI , Reynolds American
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.05% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
-1.80% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-2.16% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-9.75% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-5.70% , CSX , CSX
-2.98% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
-6.29% , KMX , CarMax
-1.09% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-2.82% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.86% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-3.50% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-3.28% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
-0.34% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
-3.40% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-2.46% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-0.87% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-3.60% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-6.72% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-2.97% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
-3.50% , X , US STEEL CORP
-0.67% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
-2.38% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
-2.24% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
-2.64% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
-1.48% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.32% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-3.01% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-2.14% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
-1.17% , IYR , Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.76% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-3.28% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-1.91% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
-0.66% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.39% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.14% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.57% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.55% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.47% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.42% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.41% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.40% Energy DJ, IYE
0.36% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.33% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.28% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.27% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.25% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.25% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.24% Russia MV, RSX
0.20% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.19% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.17% Belgium Index, EWK
0.17% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.16% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.14% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.12% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.10% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.10% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.06% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.06% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.05% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.04% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.03% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.01% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.01% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.00% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.00% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.02% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.02% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.04% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.06% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.07% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.08% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.09% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.09% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.10% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.13% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.13% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.13% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.13% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.15% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.16% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.16% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.19% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.23% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.25% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.26% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.26% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.27% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.27% Energy Global, IXC
-0.30% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.33% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.34% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.34% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.35% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.37% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.39% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.40% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.40% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.42% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.43% Germany Index, EWG
-0.44% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.44% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.44% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.45% Canada Index, EWC
-0.45% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.46% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.46% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.46% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.46% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.46% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.46% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.47% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.48% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.49% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.49% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.49% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.50% Global 100, IOO
-0.51% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.52% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.52% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.56% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.56% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.57% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.57% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.58% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.60% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.60% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.61% India PS, PIN
-0.61% Water Resources, PHO
-0.62% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.64% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.66% Australia Index, EWA
-0.66% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.67% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.68% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.68% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.68% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.69% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.70% Dividend International, PID
-0.73% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.75% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.76% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.77% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.79% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.83% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.84% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.85% France Index, EWQ
-0.87% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.91% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.93% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.95% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.96% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.98% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.05% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.06% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.12% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.15% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.17% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-1.19% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.27% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.31% Austria Index, EWO
-1.31% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.48% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.49% Networking, IGN
-1.49% Spain Index, EWP
-1.51% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.60% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.61% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-2.16% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.46% Italy Index, EWI
-2.82% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
