Dear rss free blog,
The
latest IMF data should not lead people to throw shoes at its head, M.
Strauss-Kahn, as a Turk did yesterday. The Fund says the developing
world is powering the recovery and boosting its share of world
output.
Logically,
that means the IMF board should have more representation from the
sources of world expansion. Emerging and developing countries are now
expected to increase their output by 1.7% collectively this year, and
by 5.1% next year. The biggest emerging Asia countries, India and
China, are the leaders here. The latest figures are that China will
grow 8.5% this year and 9% next. India will grow 5.4% this year and
6.4% next year.
Meanwhile
the advanced world will eke out a mere 1.3% growth rate in 2010 after
shrinking 3.4% this year.
Notable
is that the IMF boosted its estimates for all parts of the globe in
its Sept. projections, compared to what was produced in July 2009.
World output this year will be 0.3% higher in 2009 and 0.6% higher in
2010. These are tiny numbers but on a global scale they matter. The
developed economies are even further ahead in the forecasts since
July, up 0.4% this year and 0.7% next year.
Holding
things back is the USA. Forecasts for us have been cut since July, by
0.1% to a shrinkage of 2.7% this year, but nearly doubled for 2010,
up 0.7% from the July forecast to 1.3% positive growth. The fund also
projects greater declines in GNP this year than it estimated earlier
for Britain, Canada, and Russia.
That
brings me to another issue: whether there is such a thing as BRIC
countries. Russia won the booby prize for 2009 with the IMF
forecasting that its economy would shrink 7.5%. And in 2010 it will
grow at developed country rates rather than developing country ones,
a mere 1.5%. Russia of course is not a developing country. It is a
developed country with a huge dependence on oil and gas exports.
Developing
countries meanwhile are less dependent on demand from the
industrialized world because they are exporting to other emerging
markets. That is why the IMF expects that after shrinkage this year,
both Mexico and Brazil will grow by well over 3% next year.
The
Wall St. funk is partly technical, caused by an unwinding of some of
the window dressing I wrote about yesterday. Does this mean October
will be a bummer? I am not sure. But the rumors here is that there is
a lot of money on the sidelines waiting for an equity entry point.
Another reason was the spate of deals and rumors of deals. The likely
buyer will see its stock price fall.
This is discussed for specific companies we recommend for paid subscribers today. Two are sellers which should go up, and one is down because it is a buyer. We also report on changes in how analysts view the companies we tip.
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There
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employer.
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