Dear rss free blog,
clever I was to study Portuguese now that Rio de Janeiro was
designated for the Olympics in 2016! All those years wrestling with
the complex grammar at the Fundação Gulbenkian can pay off with
lots of trips. First I am going to sail to Manaus, on the River
Amazon, over Christmas this year.
in 2012 I can go back to Rio for the 20th anniversary of
the 1982 Earth Summit (which I went to). And In 2014 I get to go to
the World Cup.
investment message for a Lusitanophone is probably mixed. We are
already heavily overweight in Brazil as paid subscribers know. I am
not sure that the increased exposure in the teens decade will really
bring in more investor money. Yes, a US visa costs $130; yes, there
are great opportunities for purse and camera snatchers and jewel
thieves descending from the favelas to pickpocket sports and
eco fans. And for lots of cops to protect the visitors.
the tourism sector will have to invest heavily in new facilities like
a safer airport, public transport, and mid-range hotels before the
markets overall continue to lure investors and make money for them.
EPFR, a service which
tracks fund flows reports that in Q3, after US bond funds, the
biggest inflows went to emerging market funds, to the of $40.04 bn.
This more than offset the decline in such placements in the first
three quarters of 2008, of $32.8 bn. And it more or less matches the
drop in money market funds which saw exits of $43.1 bn in Q3. US bond
funds won the inflow Olympics however, drawing in $97.5 bn in Q3.
adds that in Sept. liquid depositary receipts collectively produced
gains of 6.22% while the S&P 500 went up only 3.57%. But again
the emerging markets did much better than average. Latin American
ADRs for example rose 13.3% in sept. and 74.62% in the year to date.
The S&P is up only 17.03% to the end of Sept. and the non-US ADR
group overall only 17.03%.
the real question is whether the Brazil boom will continue. Rio is
gorgeous but caught between the mountains and the sea. My attention
today is turning to another emerging market altogether.
did not do well from the Olympics. The beautiful Beijing bird’s nest
stadium has been used only once (for a concert) since the world’s
athletes left last year. That is symbolic of the way prestige
projects can fade to oblivion.
China followed its Olympic building boom with new economic stimulus
and cheap money. The advantage of stadiums and infrastructure is that
they do not create pollution or industrial overcapacity, the way more
rational investment programs may do.