Health Care stock sector ETF (XLV) Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 8/29/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose to a new high on 8/29/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2 years on 8/29/14.
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 15 months on 8/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish trend.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 2003.37, up 0.33%) absolute price opened higher on an upside gap then turned choppy and remained choppy most of the day until an upswing in the final hour lifted the SPX to its high of the day. SPX closed above both the (true) open and the midpoint of the day’s high-low range and closed above all previous closing prices, for another bullish performance.
NYSE total volume fell 1% to a level 30% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
Although price momentum turned upward on Friday 8/8/14, it is not even close to reversing months-long bearish divergences. On 8/25/14, short-term momentum oscillators RSI and MACD failed to rise above their 2014 highs to confirm the new high for the S&P 500 Index on which these oscillators are based. On 8/7/14, RSI and MACD broke down to their lowest levels in more than 6 months, thereby confirming their preexisting downtrends. RSI and MACD turned down on 7/7/14, after failing to rise to their highs of 6/10/14–despite higher highs for the S&P 500. Furthermore, these same momentum oscillators consistently have remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite much higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, for many months both oscillators have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at +217, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
The S&P 500 rose 3.77% in August. It has closed higher 6 of the past 7 months. Over the past 26 months, it has closed lower on the month only 5 times, or 19% of the time, and it did not close lower 2 or more consecutive months. Clearly, the bullish majority has been eager to buy on price dips. Looking ahead, September and October have been the seasonally weakest months of the year for more than a century–but of course past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the stock market has been ignoring for months.
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Stock Market Indicators
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 8/25/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose above its highs of the previous 13 years 8/29/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) rose to its highest level in 9 months on 8/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. This RS ratio’s rising 50-day SMA crossed above the falling 200-day SMA on 8/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2 years on 8/29/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) has remained systematically neutral most of the time since bottoming on 2/25/14. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 7/28/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 7/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been in a corrective mode since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price broke out above a 4-year downtrend line and rose to its highest level in 11 months on 8/25/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 8/20/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. DBA crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 6 months on 8/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. Price remains systematically neutral. Long term, USO has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 22.74 on 2/19/09. Support 34.00, 32.68, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 8/21/14, thereby signaling a medium-term downtrend. Longer term, GLD appears to be base building in neutral trading range since hitting a bottom at 114.46 on 12/31/13. GLD price has been crisscrossing its 50-day and 200-day SMAs this year, resulting in misleading signals, typical of a range-bound market. Support: 119.42, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has turned choppy in recent weeks and remains systematically neutral. Absolute price has been systematically neutral most of this year, 2014.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 10 weeks on 8/22/14, reconfirming a medium-term downtrend that started on 7/10/14. Longer term, SLV could be attempting to form a base, or bottom, since bottoming at 17.75 on 4/27/13. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 12 weeks on 8/19/14, reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price has been in a medium-term downtrend since it peaked at 41.18 on 7/3/14. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.04% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
1.69% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
3.62% , NBR , NABORS
2.67% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
0.36% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
0.85% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.79% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
1.91% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
1.41% , GLW , CORNING
1.34% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
0.56% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.99% , BMS , BEMIS
0.82% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.77% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.98% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
0.62% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
0.92% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
1.64% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
0.36% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
1.26% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.78% , INTC , INTEL
0.45% , XLK , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.93% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
0.42% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
1.24% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
0.74% , AN , AUTONATION
1.17% , UIS , UNISYS
0.22% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
0.42% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
0.71% , LLY , ELI LILLY
0.76% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
0.53% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
0.82% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.80% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-1.04% , UTX , UNITED TECH
-0.98% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-0.69% , TMK , TORCHMARK
-0.82% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.35% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.99% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-0.50% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.27% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
-0.17% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.05% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.61% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-0.31% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
-0.17% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
-0.26% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-0.08% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.29% , CINF , CINCINNATI FIN
-0.12% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.55% , IR , INGER RAND
-0.22% , SNA , SNAP ON
-0.34% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-0.29% , OMC , OMNICOM
-0.06% , DD , DU PONT
-0.04% , EFA , EAFE Index, EFA
-0.02% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-0.07% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-0.04% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.04% , KR , KROGER
-0.06% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
-0.09% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.78% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.77% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.65% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.34% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.32% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.26% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.25% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.02% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.88% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.85% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.82% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.76% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.75% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.72% , Networking, IGN
0.68% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.68% , Energy Global, IXC
0.67% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.66% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.65% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.65% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.64% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.60% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.60% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.57% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.56% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.56% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.56% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.56% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.55% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.54% , India PS, PIN
0.54% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.53% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.53% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.53% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.52% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.51% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.50% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.50% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.50% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.48% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.47% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.47% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.47% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.46% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.46% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.46% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.45% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.45% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.44% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.43% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.43% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.40% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.39% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.37% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.36% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.36% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.35% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.35% , Water Resources, PHO
0.34% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.32% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.31% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.30% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.29% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.29% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.28% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.27% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.27% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.27% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.25% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.24% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.24% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.23% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.23% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.22% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.21% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.21% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.20% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.20% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.19% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.18% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.16% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.16% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.14% , Global 100, IOO
0.12% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.10% , Dividend International, PID
0.10% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.09% , Canada Index, EWC
0.07% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.07% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.07% , Australia Index, EWA
0.07% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.07% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.06% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.06% , Italy Index, EWI
0.05% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.05% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.04% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.04% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.01% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.01% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.00% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.00% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.00% , France Index, EWQ
0.00% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.00% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.01% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.01% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.02% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.03% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.04% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.04% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.07% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.07% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.09% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.10% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.10% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.10% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.11% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.12% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.12% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.12% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.15% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.15% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.16% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.16% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.17% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.27% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.30% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.31% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.32% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.35% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.35% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.39% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.50% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.77% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.82% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.05% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.18% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.19% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.89% , Russia MV, RSX
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2005.04, high of 8/26/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1966.28, 50-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1878.82, 200-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
