We had a crop report this morning, so I am in the office early. The US dollar is up 50 cents today,, hmmm. right now the high tick is 77.28.
Adjust your sell stops to insure profits. Make sure your winner does not turn into a loser.
That is all.
One interesting note, overnight news, China said they see signs that their economy is slowing down. Fill in the blanks as to what you think this will mean for US markets, and US grain markets in particular. I can give you the bullish story or the bearish story, but what really matters is what the markets actually so.
With Corn doubling in the last 6 months and beans gaining 5 bucks the trend is still higher.
Bean exports were huge. There seems to be no end in demand for that protein.
Wheat looked a little bearish, but nothing shocking.
In general, this supply/demand report seems neutral to slightly bearish. However, I would not want to be long rice. Looks like there is more than enough rice in the world currently. We’ll probably be limit down.
Finally, the crude oil looks interesting at these levels. Three days ago, I told you about the copier salesman/repairman in our office, touting his long position in oil. That to me was a warning.
I am by no means calling the top in crude, but, the chart action suggests that the last 3 or 4 dollar pop was fueled by “weak longs”. This term refers to speculators who are bullish, but do not have the staying power to take much heat or lose money with out feeling undo pain. They are the last to buy an up move, typically. Their blood also leads the market correction lower.
Now will, this be a break down to 92?? I hope so. 103.60 is a fulcrum point. Currently we are below it. How we settle today, and more importantly, Friday, will be huge.
If guys are long over the weekend, looking at a losing position, they will be stewing about it all weekend. Friday/Monday could be interesting for the crude.
Good Trading
Manage the Trade
Manage your opinion
CER
