Industrial stock sector ETF (XLI) Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/4/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,927.88, up 0.19%) absolute price opened moderately lower but quickly reversed to the upside. Prices peaked during lunch and traded firm but choppy in the afternoon. SPX closed above the open and the midpoint of the day’s high-low range. The S&P 500 scored another new high, although some of the other indexes continue to lag divergently.
Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 remains elevated above 98%, which signals an extremely overbought condition.
NYSE total volume remained slow at a level 13% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose to 307 from 232 the previous trading day. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index failed to rise to higher highs in 2014 to confirm price. Both continue to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
Beyond the noisy day-to-day price action, the outlook for the stock market appears uncertain. The trends for the S&P 500 are obviously bullish in all time frames, but divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, rising trading volume on down days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 6/2/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 5/7/14, thereby suggesting a significant downtrend. The QQQ/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/19/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price of QQQ crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/16/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 6/2/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained in a weak position below the 200-day SMA since 12/17/12. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 11 months on 5/14/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has remained systematically neutral most of the time since price peaked at 120.58 on 3/4/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has remained systematically neutral most of the time since price peaked at 254.48 on 4/4/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). UUP has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price fell to its lowest level in more than 3 months on 6/3/14, thereby reconfirming a downside price pullback. DBA crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 8 months on 5/23/14, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish uptrend. USO rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell to its lowest level in nearly 4 months on 6/2/14, reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/28/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell to its lowest level in nearly 5 months on 5/28/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. GDX/GLD has been systematically bearish most of the time since GDX absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Absolute price of GDX remains systematically bearish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell to its lowest level in 11 months on 5/30/14, reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 3/20/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell to its lowest level in more than 3 years on 5/1/14, thereby confirming its preexisting major downtrend. SLV/GLD turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/8/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.19% , WAG , WALGREEN
3.62% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
5.48% , MBI , MBIA
2.41% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
4.42% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
2.11% , TER , TERADYNE
3.18% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
2.27% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
0.21% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
2.01% , LM , LEGG MASON
3.21% , X , US STEEL CORP
3.82% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
1.71% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
0.33% , SPHQ.K , S&P 500 High Quality PS, SPHQ
2.95% , MET , METLIFE
0.24% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.29% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
1.84% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
0.52% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.92% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
1.06% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
1.43% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
0.30% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.91% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
2.40% , TJX , TJX
1.15% , MAS , MASCO
0.37% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
0.93% , CHD , Church & Dwight
0.17% , IWB , LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
2.47% , AZO , AUTOZONE
1.76% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
1.77% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
0.33% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.98% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-2.08% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-1.52% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
-1.69% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-3.39% , COH , COACH
-1.55% , AES , AES
-2.10% , SEE , SEALED AIR
-0.33% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.87% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
-0.36% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-1.05% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
-1.33% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-0.14% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.27% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
-0.64% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-2.28% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-0.32% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
-0.44% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
-1.53% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-0.75% , IP , INTL PAPER
-1.35% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-0.01% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-0.90% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
-2.36% , AGN , ALLERGAN
-0.33% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-0.36% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
-0.27% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.10% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.44% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
-0.36% , NUE , NUCOR
-0.34% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-0.43% , T , AT&T Corp., T
-0.30% , EMC , EMC
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.98% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.42% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.96% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.95% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.95% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.73% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.68% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.59% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.56% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.53% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.52% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.50% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.49% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.46% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.45% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.45% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.44% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.44% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.39% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.39% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.37% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.36% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.36% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.35% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.35% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.33% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.33% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.33% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.31% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.31% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.30% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.29% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.29% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.28% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.28% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.28% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.27% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.27% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.26% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.26% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.25% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.24% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.24% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.23% , Russia MV, RSX
0.23% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.23% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.21% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.20% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.20% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.20% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.20% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.19% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.19% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.19% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.18% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.18% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.17% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.16% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.16% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.15% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.13% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.13% , Dividend International, PID
0.12% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.11% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.10% , Austria Index, EWO
0.10% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.10% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.09% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.09% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.08% , Water Resources, PHO
0.07% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.07% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.07% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.07% , Canada Index, EWC
0.06% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.06% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.05% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.03% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.00% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.00% , Germany Index, EWG
0.00% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.02% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.03% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.03% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.03% , France Index, EWQ
-0.04% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.04% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.05% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.05% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.05% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.05% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.06% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.06% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.06% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.06% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.07% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.07% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.07% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.08% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.08% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.08% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.08% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.10% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.10% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.14% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.17% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.17% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.18% , Networking, IGN
-0.18% , Global 100, IOO
-0.20% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.21% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.22% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.23% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.26% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.27% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.28% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.29% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.33% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.34% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.35% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.36% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.36% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.43% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.45% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.46% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.46% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.47% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.47% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.53% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.53% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.56% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.56% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.72% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.72% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.75% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.79% , India PS, PIN
-0.82% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.83% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.14% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.85% , Indonesia MV, IDX
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
none
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1878.18, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1799.66, 200-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
