Industrial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) fell further below 2-year lows and remains systematically bearish. Absolute price turned systematically bearish when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its highs of the previous 2 years, reconfirming its preexisting major bullish trend. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,353.64) fell 3.14 points or 0.23% on Monday.
NYSE volume fell 9% to one of the lowest levels of the year, suggesting low demand for stocks.
Last week, the S&P 500 bounced off its 50-day SMA, where it often tries to make a stand, if only temporarily. Nevertheless, downside risk still may exceed upside potential for the stock market looking out weeks ahead.
For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.
Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 5/17/12 when both Industrials and Transports closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months, including the critical lows of March and April, 2012. The Averages gave an early warning by diverging after 2/3/12, as the Transports turned corrective and failed to confirm higher highs by the Industrials. Again on 5/1/12, the Industrials rose to a higher closing price high while the Transports failed to rise to a higher closing price high, thereby indicating a non-confirmation and bearish divergence.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio whipsawed back down below its 200-day SMA again on 7/12/12 and remains systematically neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been above its 200-day SMA since 2/3/12.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 6/25/12, reconfirming its bearish trend. Systematically, BKF/SPY remains bearish below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 5/25/12, reconfirming its bearish trend. EEM/SPY remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) reconfirmed a bearish major trend when it fell below its lows of the previous 9 years on 6/25/12. Systematically, EFA/SPY remains bearish below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/14/11.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its highs of the previous 2 years on 7/16/12, reconfirming its preexisting major bullish trend. OEX/SPX remains systematically bullish above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/24/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 200-day SMA on 7/16/12. IWM/SPY remains systematically neutral with its 50-day SMA below its 200-day SMA since 4/20/12. Longer term, IWM/SPY has been relatively weak for more than a year, since 4/5/11.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 200-day SMA on 7/6/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. MDY/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been below its 200-day SMA since 6/6/12.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1332.88, 50-day SMA
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1308.52, 200-day SMA
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 128.60, 124.09, 122.06, 120.60, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: none.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 108.91, 107.51, 107.43, 105.85, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: none.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA again on 7/6/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JNK/LQD remains below its 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 6/1/12.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 7/2/12, reconfirming its major downtrend and suggesting disinflation or deflation. TIP/IEF is systematically bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 6/27/12.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.49% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
0.56% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
4.42% , NCR , NCR
2.66% , GCI , GANNETT
3.90% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
1.03% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.07% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
2.72% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
1.06% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.85% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
1.96% , MON , MONSANTO
1.65% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
1.23% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
1.22% , OMC , OMNICOM
0.67% , MBI , MBIA
0.95% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.67% , CBS , CBS CORP.
1.76% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
0.34% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.71% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
1.35% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.09% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
1.06% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
1.33% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
1.23% , AXP , AMERICAN EXPRESS
0.29% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
1.36% , LLY , ELI LILLY
0.32% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.29% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
1.50% , CVG , CONVERGYS
0.71% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
1.06% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
0.31% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.22% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
-2.08% , TE , TECO ENERGY
-3.44% , LOW , LOWES
-3.45% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-2.32% , K , KELLOGG
-0.80% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-3.38% , EBAY , EBAY
-1.56% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-0.58% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-0.59% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-1.01% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.36% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-1.85% , ALTR , ALTERA
-2.14% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
-3.97% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-1.46% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-1.32% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-3.25% , IR , INGER RAND
-0.68% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-0.26% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-2.61% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-1.87% , LM , LEGG MASON
-1.67% , PLL , PALL
-0.56% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-0.88% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-1.35% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
-2.24% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
-0.51% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-1.70% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
-1.26% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
-1.24% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
-1.75% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
-0.75% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.60% Mexico Index, EWW
1.43% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.35% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.24% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.06% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.95% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.86% South Africa Index, EZA
0.58% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.53% Russia MV, RSX
0.48% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.46% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.45% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.42% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.40% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.38% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.34% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.34% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.33% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.32% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.31% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.29% Energy DJ, IYE
0.28% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.28% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.27% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.22% Energy Global, IXC
0.22% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.19% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.19% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.19% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.18% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.18% Australia Index, EWA
0.18% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.18% Belgium Index, EWK
0.17% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.16% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.16% Sweden Index, EWD
0.14% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.13% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.12% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.10% Germany Index, EWG
0.08% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.06% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.06% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.05% France Index, EWQ
0.05% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.04% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.04% Canada Index, EWC
0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.02% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.00% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.00% Dividend International, PID
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.03% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.03% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.05% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.05% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.06% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.07% Global 100, IOO
-0.08% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.08% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.08% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.10% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.10% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.11% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.11% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.16% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.17% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.18% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.18% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.19% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.19% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.20% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.22% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.22% Austria Index, EWO
-0.23% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.23% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.23% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.23% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.24% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.24% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.24% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.24% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.25% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.25% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.25% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.26% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.26% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.27% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.28% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.29% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.30% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.30% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.32% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.32% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.33% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.33% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.33% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.36% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.37% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.37% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.38% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.38% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.39% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.39% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.39% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.39% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.40% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.41% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.43% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.44% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.45% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.46% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.47% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.47% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.49% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.49% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.51% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.53% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.56% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.57% Italy Index, EWI
-0.57% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.60% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.60% Water Resources, PHO
-0.61% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.63% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.64% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.68% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.69% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.71% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.73% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.75% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.93% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.01% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.04% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.06% India PS, PIN
-1.32% Networking, IGN
-1.36% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.48% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.63% Spain Index, EWP
