S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,356.62) fell 4.60 points or 0.34% on Tuesday. SPX broke below a steep 8-day uptrend line. Momentum indicators based on SPX have turned down.

The major stock price indexes show signs of exhaustion of the short-term uptrend. Sentiment indicators have been suggesting that the stock market may be over loved and overbought. And in view of the sharp reversals in the metal commodities, the so-called “inflation trade”, when speculators buy stocks and sell fixed-income instruments based on expectations of rising price levels for goods and services, may be on thin ice.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) and the S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) both fell below 50-day SMAs on 5/3/11 and are now neutral.

Crude Oil fell below the lows of the previous 7 trading days, suggesting a short-term price pullback.

Gold price fell below the lows of the previous 3 trading days, suggesting a short-term price pullback. Previously, I wrote, ” Gold rose above all-time highs on 5/2/11, again reconfirming its major uptrend. Gold looks overextended, however, and could be due for a downside correction.” That correction may have started.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell further below 15-month lows, again reconfirming its bearish trend. The Ratio crossed below the 50-day SMA on 4/15/11, remains below the 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA.

Silver fell further below the lows of the previous 2 weeks, confirming a short-term price downtrend, which could cool rising inflation expectations.

Silver/Gold Ratio broke sharply below the lows of the previous 3 weeks. The short-term price trend has turned down.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.28% , PMR , Retail, PMR
4.53% , AVP , AVON
6.06% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
8.32% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
2.61% , AA , ALCOA
3.13% , FHN , First Horizon National
2.68% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
1.91% , WPO , Washington Post
0.78% , DYN , DYNEGY
1.34% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
2.09% , LLY , ELI LILLY
0.96% , NUE , NUCOR
1.21% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
2.08% , T , AT&T Corp., T
2.11% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
0.63% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.26% , KEY , KEYCORP
0.61% , SO , SOUTHERN
1.20% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
0.64% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
0.86% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.80% , AZO , AUTOZONE
0.96% , ED , CON ED
1.40% , INTC , INTEL
2.33% , DELL , DELL
0.48% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
1.91% , WAG , WALGREEN
1.18% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
0.59% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
1.40% , AN , AUTONATION
0.72% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
1.25% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
0.27% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.80% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
-12.90% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
-9.86% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-5.70% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
-5.31% , LM , LEGG MASON
-5.95% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
-6.45% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
-1.24% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-3.60% , CLX , CLOROX
-1.87% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-6.73% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
-4.49% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-2.76% , PFE , PFIZER
-2.37% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-2.53% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
-3.80% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
-2.67% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.14% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
-0.52% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-3.31% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-4.16% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.44% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.38% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-1.97% , TXT , TEXTRON
-1.03% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-5.16% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
-1.05% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.21% , PWP , Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
-3.13% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-1.22% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-3.42% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-3.02% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-0.76% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been correcting since 4/5/11 and remains neutral. Absolute price has been consolidating gains since 4/6/11. Support 75.18, 72.85, 68.73, 67.49, 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 80.97, 83.27, and 91.42.

Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) has been consolidating gains since 4/4/11 and remains neutral. Absolute price rose above previous 2-year highs on 4/29/11. Support 37.39, 36.24, 35.08, 35.03, 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 39.0 and 39.97.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) has been moving sideways for 2 months. Longer term, the Ratio has been consolidating gains since 11/26/10. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 4/28/11, which is bullish. Support 38.90, 38.46, 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 40.72.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) remains neutral based on moving average relationships, with the 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price remains bullish. Support 32.57, 31.43, 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 36.67 and 37.89.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) ) has been correcting since 4/5/11 and remains neutral. Absolute price has been consolidating gains since 4/6/11. Support 39.88, 38.44, 38.06, 36.44, 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 41.28, 43.04, 45.21, 45.21, and 46.54.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) remains neutral, based on moving average relationships, with the 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price remains bullish. Support 29.64, 28.71, 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance: none.

Technology (XLK) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 13-month lows on 4/5/11. The Ratio gave a clear bearish signal on 3/22/11 when the 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio crossed below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLK peaked on 2/18/11 and remains neutral. Support 25.20, 24.87, 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 27.09, 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) remains neutral, based on moving average relationships, with the 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose further above 2-year highs on 5/3/11 and remains bullish. Support 31.35, 31.20, 30.74, 30.53, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 34.89 and 36.24.

Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 5/2/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price fell below 3-week lows on 4/18/11 and remains neutral. Support 15.79, 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.75, 16.85, 17.20, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell steeply since 4/21/11 and remains in a short-term downtrend. Longer term, the trend of the Ratio remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio has been consolidating gains since 1/18/11 and remains neutral. Absolute price rose above 10-year highs on 4/28/11, reconfirming a bullish major trend.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell further below 28-year lows on 4/21/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/3/11 and is now neutral. The Ratio lost upside momentum since 4/5/11, when it rose above all-time highs.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/3/11 and is now neutral. The Ratio lost upside momentum since 4/5/11, when it rose above all-time highs.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 7 trading days on 5/3/11, suggesting a short-term price pullback. Oil rose above 2-year highs on 5/2/11, confirming uptrends in longer-term timeframes. Support 105.98, 105.31, 102.70, 97.02, 96.22, 95.14, 87.09, 83.85, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 73.52, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 114.83, 120.42, 130.0, and 147.27.

Gold nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 3 trading days on 5/3/11, suggesting a short-term price pullback. Previously, I wrote, ” Gold rose above all-time highs on 5/2/11, again reconfirming its major uptrend. Gold looks overextended, however, and could be due for a downside correction.” That correction may have started. Support: 1492.0, 1445.0, 1411.5, 1380.7, 1419.5, 1351.4, 1309.1, 1307.7, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1577.4.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell further below 15-month lows on 5/3/11, again reconfirming its bearish trend. The Ratio crossed below the 50-day SMA on 4/15/11, remains below the 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA.

Silver nearest futures contract price fell further below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 5/3/11, confirming a short-term price downtrend, which could cool rising inflation expectations. Support 39.70, 39.12, 37.08, 36.43, 33.565, 31.695, 31.61, 30.265, 29.635, 26.30, 24.98, and 22.84. Resistance: 49.82 and 50.35.

Silver/Gold Ratio broke sharply below the lows of the previous 3 weeks. The short-term price trend has turned down.

Copper nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks on 5/2/11. The short-term price trend still appears to be down. Copper appears to be in an intermediate-term consolidation since peaking at 4.6575 on 2/15/11. Strength in Copper suggests confidence in the economic outlook, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 4.1075, 4.076, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: 4.533, 4.554, 4.6495, and 4.6575.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose above the highs of the previous 6-week on 5/3/11, again confirming that the short-term trend is still up. In addition, the Bond may have been building an intermediate-term bullish base since the low of 12/15/10. In its favor, nearly everyone has been talking bearish on Bonds this year, so the Bond could be oversold. Support 120.20, 119.15, 117.28, 117.04, 116.26, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 123.22, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been stuck in a neutral trading range most of the time since JNK peaked at 41.32 on 11/4/10.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) entered a downside correction phase after rising above 2-year highs on 4/8/11. The Ratio had been in a rising trend from 8/24/10 to 4/8/11, reflecting fixed-income investors’ preference for inflation-protected TIPs over the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF).

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price rose above the highs of the previous 2 days on 5/3/11, possibly suggesting an oversold condition. But USD fell below the lows of the previous 16 months on 5/2/11, again reconfirming a long-term, major downtrend. Support 70.80. Resistance 76.055, 76.87, 77.675, 78.98, 79.34, 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 57.3% Bulls versus 15.7% Bears as of 4/6/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio soared to 3.65, up from 2.23 the previous week. The Ratio rose its highest level in the 8 years since the 20-year high of 3.74 set on 6/18/03. Following that 2003 peak, the stock market turned sideways/choppy for 2 months and sentiment reverted toward the mean. The Ratio’s 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.56, and the mean is 1.63. According to Humphrey B. Neill, The Art of Contrary Thinking, when everybody thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong.

VIX Fear Index fell below its 3-year range on 4/20/11, hitting 14.30 intraday, and again confirming a preexisting trend toward bullish complacency. This follows a brief spike up to an intraday peak of 31.28 on 3/16/11. Fear was short-lived. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 4/28/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,356.62) fell 4.60 points or 0.34% on Tuesday. SPX broke below a steep 8-day uptrend line. Momentum indicators based on SPX have turned down.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.50, high of 5/2/11

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1294.70, low of 4/18/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

0.86% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.63% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.57% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.57% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.50% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.43% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.29% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.27% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.25% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.24% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.21% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.20% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.18% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.16% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.15% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.13% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.10% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.08% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.05% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.05% Japan Index, EWJ
0.04% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.03% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.02% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.02% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.04% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.04% Austria Index, EWO
-0.05% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.13% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.15% Italy Index, EWI
-0.20% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.25% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.27% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.31% Spain Index, EWP
-0.31% France Index, EWQ
-0.33% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.34% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.36% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.36% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.36% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.39% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.40% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.40% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.41% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.41% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.43% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.43% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.43% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.45% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.45% Germany Index, EWG
-0.47% Global 100, IOO
-0.47% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.52% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.52% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.53% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.53% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.54% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.55% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.55% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.56% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.57% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.61% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.62% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.67% Dividend International, PID
-0.68% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.71% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.75% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.76% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.81% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.81% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.82% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.82% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.85% Water Resources, PHO
-0.86% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.86% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.86% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.87% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.87% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.88% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.88% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.89% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.89% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.90% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.91% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.91% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.94% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.01% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.03% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.05% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.05% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.12% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.15% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.22% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.22% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.23% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.24% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.24% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.24% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.26% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.31% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.31% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.43% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.44% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.44% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.45% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.46% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.47% Networking, IGN
-1.53% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.54% Australia Index, EWA
-1.58% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.66% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.66% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.82% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.83% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.89% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.94% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.95% Canada Index, EWC
-1.95% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.96% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.96% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.02% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.04% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.08% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.08% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-2.23% Emerging Markets, EEM
-2.38% India PS, PIN
-2.40% Energy DJ, IYE
-2.44% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.45% Energy Global, IXC
-2.51% Energy SPDR, XLE
-2.54% Mexico Index, EWW
-2.56% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-2.60% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-2.67% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.80% South Africa Index, EZA
-3.31% Russia MV, RSX
-4.16% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-5.25% Silver Trust iS, SLV