Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 2-year lows and further below its falling 50- and 200-day SMAs and remains clearly bearish. Absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks.
The Dow Theory confirmed a short-term downtrend again when Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages both closed below previous 4-week closing price lows after making lower highs since peaking on 10/27/11.
Most other stock price indexes and indicators confirmed this bearish trend.
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) rose further above rising 50-day and 200-day SMAs, again confirming a significant uptrend.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell further below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs, again confirming its major downtrend.
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Stock Market Indicators
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,188.04) absolute price fell further below the lows of the previous 6 weeks on 11/22/11, again confirming a significant downtrend. SPX remains bearishly below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.
Price momentum oscillators, such as RSI and MACD, have been weaker than price in recent weeks, thereby giving bearish divergence early warning.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1269.27, 200-day SMA
1263.21, high of 11/3/2011
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1256.55, high of 10/24/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1221.06, low of 10/26/2011
1215.42, low of 11/1/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Averages, Industrial and Transportation, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. A short-term downtrend was confirmed on 11/21/11 when both Averages closed below previous 4-week lows after making lower highs since peaking on 10/27/11.
A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.
Given the deep-rooted global fundamental economic problems and the lack of workable solutions, plus the constant attempts of government officials to deny reality and talk the markets up, markets are likely to remain volatile, with a continuing heightened sensitivity to news, and with continuing large daily moves in both directions. Note that very high price volatility is typical of bear markets, while bull markets are much less volatile. Risk appears skewed to the downside.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) rose further above rising 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 11/22/11, again confirming a significant uptrend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 118.32, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 125.03.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) rose further above 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 11/22/11, again confirming a significant uptrend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 104.25, 103.57, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 106.66.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell further below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 11/22/11, again confirming its major downtrend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11. JNK/LQD broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11. Absolute price of JNK has been weak since 10/27/11 remains bearish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its 50-day SMA and fell further below its falling 200-day SMA on 11/21/11, confirming its major downtrend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.12% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
5.20% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
2.18% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
1.91% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
1.35% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
1.26% , SEE , SEALED AIR
0.30% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
1.12% , BMS , BEMIS
3.48% , AN , AUTONATION
0.66% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
4.45% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
1.00% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
1.25% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
0.26% , CBE , COOPER INDS STK A
1.85% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
0.39% , SUN , SUNOCO
1.35% , MAR , MARRIOTT INTL STK A
0.82% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
1.23% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
0.45% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
0.76% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
0.77% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
0.87% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
2.61% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
0.67% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.26% , AMGN , AMGEN
2.05% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
3.67% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.00% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.26% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
1.86% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
0.87% , CL , COLGATE
0.71% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.31% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-1.45% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
-5.40% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-1.85% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-5.27% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
-1.29% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-2.71% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-3.08% , APA , APACHE
-3.10% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-0.63% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.33% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-4.70% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-4.43% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-4.59% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-0.77% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-4.97% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
-0.60% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.77% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-1.81% , AGN , ALLERGAN
-1.23% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-5.94% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-1.92% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
-3.24% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
-1.27% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.43% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
-1.96% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-0.58% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
-0.68% , IVE , Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-2.41% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-0.57% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-1.98% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
-3.24% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-4.43% , TER , TERADYNE
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.67% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.86% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
1.49% South Korea Index, EWY
1.38% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.29% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.12% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.11% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.11% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.97% Russia MV, RSX
0.91% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.86% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.78% Japan Index, EWJ
0.71% India PS, PIN
0.67% Mexico Index, EWW
0.67% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.66% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.63% Singapore Index, EWS
0.61% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.60% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.57% Belgium Index, EWK
0.40% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.35% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.34% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.33% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.31% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.31% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.30% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.25% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.23% China 25 iS, FXI
0.23% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.18% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.11% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.10% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.08% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.08% Canada Index, EWC
0.07% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.05% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.05% Australia Index, EWA
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.05% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.05% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.09% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.09% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.12% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.13% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.16% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.17% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.18% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.19% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.19% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.23% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.26% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.28% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.29% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.31% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.32% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.33% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.34% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.35% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.35% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.35% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.36% Dividend International, PID
-0.36% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.36% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.37% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.38% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.38% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.39% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.40% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.40% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.42% Global 100, IOO
-0.43% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.45% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.46% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.46% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.47% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.47% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.47% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.48% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.49% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.50% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.53% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.55% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.56% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.57% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.57% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.58% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.59% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.59% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.60% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.63% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.63% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.64% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.65% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.65% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.66% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.66% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.68% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.68% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.70% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.70% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.70% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.77% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.77% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.77% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.78% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.82% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.84% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.85% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.85% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.86% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.87% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.87% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.88% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.90% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.94% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.94% Networking, IGN
-0.98% Water Resources, PHO
-0.98% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.02% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.04% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.09% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.11% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.11% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.12% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.13% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.14% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.20% Germany Index, EWG
-1.21% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.23% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.23% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.24% Italy Index, EWI
-1.26% France Index, EWQ
-1.27% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.39% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.45% Energy Global, IXC
-1.66% Spain Index, EWP
-1.74% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.71% Austria Index, EWO
