The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its highs of the previous 2 years, reconfirming its preexisting major bullish trend. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA, thereby turning systematically bearish again.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,319.99) rose 6.27 points or 0.48% on Tuesday, thereby retracing a modest 29% fraction of Monday’s loss of 21.30 points . NYSE volume fell slightly.
With upside bounces smaller and briefer than declines, price and time confirm the dominance of selling pressure over buying pressure. The path of least resistance appears to be down.
The following ETFs, ranked by Relative Strength, with the weakest at the bottom of the list, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months:
Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
Austria Index, EWO
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 5/17/12 when both Industrials and Transports closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months, including the critical lows of March and April, 2012. The Averages gave an early warning by diverging after 2/3/12, as the Transports turned corrective and failed to confirm higher highs by the Industrials. Again on 5/1/12, the Industrials rose to a higher closing price high while the Transports failed to rise to a higher closing price high, thereby indicating a non-confirmation and bearish divergence.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/25/12. The Ratio’s trend is now systematically neutral: below its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been above its 200-day SMA since 2/3/12.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 6/25/12, reconfirming its bearish trend. Systematically, BKF/SPY remains bearish below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 5/25/12, reconfirming its bearish trend. EEM/SPY remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) reconfirmed a bearish major trend when it fell below its lows of the previous 9 years on 6/25/12. Systematically, EFA/SPY remains bearish below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/14/11.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its highs of the previous 2 years on 6/26/12, reconfirming its preexisting major bullish trend. OEX/SPX remains systematically bullish above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/24/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/26/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. IWM/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA since 4/20/12. Longer term, IWM/SPY has been relatively weak for more than a year, since 4/5/11.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 months on 6/14/12, reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. MDY/SPY turned systematically bearish on 6/6/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. MDY/SPY remains below its 50-day SMA and below its 200-day SMA.
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1342.81, 50-day SMA
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1297.08, 200-day SMA
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
8.34% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
3.79% , FHN , First Horizon National
10.29% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
1.24% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
0.79% , PMR , Retail, PMR
6.96% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
6.36% , GCI , GANNETT
4.65% , BBY , BEST BUY
1.02% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
2.98% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
3.56% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
2.67% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
5.31% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
0.69% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
3.00% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
1.44% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
5.62% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
2.70% , KBH , KB HOME
0.81% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
0.30% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
2.32% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
0.57% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
1.12% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
3.05% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
1.65% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
0.50% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.59% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
2.52% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
3.34% , BIG , BIG LOTS
0.99% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
3.16% , MBI , MBIA
1.70% , EIX , EDISON INTL
0.46% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.63% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-2.28% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-0.24% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.50% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
-1.02% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
-0.83% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
-1.77% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
-3.00% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-1.28% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
-1.88% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-2.42% , PWER , POWER ONE
-0.98% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-1.20% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-0.63% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-1.66% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
-0.22% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-3.02% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-2.85% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
-0.93% , TXT , TEXTRON
-0.63% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-0.94% , BLL , BALL
-0.79% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-3.09% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-0.94% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
-1.63% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-0.93% , DD , DU PONT
-0.46% , SNA , SNAP ON
-0.63% , DLX , DELUXE
-0.54% , BBT , BB&T
-1.60% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-0.89% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
-1.15% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-0.46% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.21% Russia MV, RSX
2.15% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.14% Mexico Index, EWW
2.06% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.44% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.40% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.35% Australia Index, EWA
1.24% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.24% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.19% India PS, PIN
1.13% China 25 iS, FXI
1.12% Japan Index, EWJ
1.12% Energy DJ, IYE
1.08% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.08% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.02% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.97% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.94% Energy Global, IXC
0.94% Belgium Index, EWK
0.93% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.90% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.88% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.88% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.79% Dividend International, PID
0.77% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.70% South Africa Index, EZA
0.69% European VIPERs, VGK
0.69% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.69% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.69% Singapore Index, EWS
0.68% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.68% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.67% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.67% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.67% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.66% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.66% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.64% EAFE Index, EFA
0.63% South Korea Index, EWY
0.63% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.63% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.62% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.61% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.60% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.60% Canada Index, EWC
0.60% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.59% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.57% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.55% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.55% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.53% Global 100, IOO
0.53% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.52% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.52% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.52% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.52% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.52% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.51% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.51% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.51% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.51% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.50% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.50% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.50% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.50% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.49% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.49% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.48% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.46% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.44% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.43% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.40% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.39% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.39% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.39% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.39% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.38% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.37% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.37% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.35% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.35% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.35% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.34% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.34% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.34% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.33% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.33% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.32% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.31% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.30% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.30% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.30% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.26% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.26% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.25% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.24% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.22% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.22% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.21% Germany Index, EWG
0.21% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.19% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.18% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.17% Water Resources, PHO
0.14% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.14% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.12% Networking, IGN
0.11% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.10% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.08% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.05% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.04% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.03% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.01% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.00% Sweden Index, EWD
0.00% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.00% Italy Index, EWI
0.00% France Index, EWQ
0.00% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.04% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.07% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.10% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.10% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.10% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.11% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.11% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.13% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.14% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.22% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.23% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.24% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.37% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.39% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.40% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.58% Austria Index, EWO
-0.66% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.74% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.14% Spain Index, EWP
-1.54% Silver Trust iS, SLV
