Friday, March 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
Note: I am out of the office today, and my friend and fellow Trader/analyst Ken Seehusen produced my morning report. Ken’s style is different than mine, but I think you’ll enjoy his work, too. Jim
The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS
The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off February’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February’s low, the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008-decline crossing at 1946.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1877.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday ’s high crossing at 1934.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008-decline crossing at 1946.62. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1921.12. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1877.23. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 0.75 pts. at 1942.50 as of 5:55 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning. The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February’s low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1189.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1148.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 1165.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1189.77. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1148.66. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1128.11. The June S&P 500 Index was up 0.70 pts. at 1162.00 as of 5:56 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
June T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week’s rally, the 75% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 119-04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 116-31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 118-12. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 119-04. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 117-02. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing near 116-31.
ENERGY MARKETS
May crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off February’s low, January’s high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday’s low crossing at 79.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 82.78. Second resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 83.47. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.11. Second support is Monday’s low crossing at 79.41.
CURRENCIES
The June Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.68 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If June extends this week’ s decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 79.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 80.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.20. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 79.73. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 79.17. The June Euro was lower overnight and is trading below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.276. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.276 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the decline off December’s high, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing at 132.070 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 138.340 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the late-winter trading range. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at 138.190. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 138.340. First support is the overnight low crossing at 135.590. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 135.350.
PRECIOUS METALS
April gold was lower overnight but continues to consolidate above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1118.60. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week’s rally, this month’s high crossing at 1145.80 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday’s low crossing at 1097.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday ’s high crossing at 1133.90. Second resistance is this month’s high crossing at 1145.80. First support is last Friday’s low crossing at 1097.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1088.50. GRAINS May corn was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s rally. The low-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.76 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this month’s decline, February ’s low crossing at 3.59 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.76. Second resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 3.76 1/2. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 3.61 1/2. Second support is February’s low crossing at 3.59. May wheat was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.97 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews last week’s decline, October’s low crossing at 4.72 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.97 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.17 3/4. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 4.75 1/2. Second support October’s low crossing at 4.72.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
May soybeans were higher overnight as it extends this week’s rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.52. The mid-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 9.64 1/4 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound during the last half of March. If May renews the decline off February’s high, February’s low crossing at 9.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 9.64. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.64 1/4. First support is Monday’s low crossing at 9.21 3/4. Second support is February’s low crossing at 9.11.
