U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below its lows of the previous 10 months and closed below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months and closed below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) rose above its highs of the previous 10 months.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) rose above its highs of the previous 5 months.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 5 months.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its highs of the previous 4 months.
CRB Commodity Price Index rose above its highs of the previous 6 months and turned systematically bullish when its 50-day SMA crossed above its 200-day SMA.
The Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose above its closing price highs of the previous 4-years on 9/14/12, but the Dow-Jones Transportation Average languished below previous highs for the year, 2012, thereby demonstrating non confirmation and bearish divergence.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,465.77) rose 5.78 points or 0.40% on Friday. SPX rose 1.94% for the week.
RSI(14) for the SPX is in the extreme overbought zone that has marked previous stock market highs. Now at 74.74, RSI(14) is nearly 2 standard deviations above its 20-year average.
NYSE volume rose 10% to a level 34% above its 200-day SMA on Friday. Still, average volume has been trending down for more than 6 years, since 6/30/2006, and fell further in September, 2012, reflecting diminishing enthusiasm for stocks. NYSE Volume 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA both fell to their lowest levels in 13 years last week, on Tuesday 9/11/12, and both are still trending downward.
On-Balance Volume for the SPX remains below its highs for the year, 2012, thereby demonstrating relative weakness and bearish divergence.
NYSE Cumulative Volume of Advancing Stocks minus Volume of Declining Stocks remains below its March high, thereby demonstrating relative weakness and bearish divergence. Clearly, volume has not been confirming the price up move.
It takes volume to push prices up. After the shorts have been forced to cover and the longs have had their fill of buying, in the absence of a fresh source of demand, stocks fall of their own weight.
While the S&P 500 Composite Price Index rose to a new 4-year high, both the percentage of these same 500 stocks that are above their 200-day SMAs (now at 81.80, down from a peak above 85 in March) and the percentage in bullish Point-and-Figure Chart uptrends (now at 79.00, down from a peak above 85 in February) failed to confirm that higher high. Both market breadth indicators still are diverging bearishly compared to the S&P 500 Composite Stock Price Index.
Investor sentiment data indicates alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency as the stock price indexes rise above their 2012 market highs. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean, as it did during the -10% April-June 2012 downside price correction for the stock market.
The technical condition of the stock market does not support the optimism of the bullish majority of stock investors and traders. Over the past 3 months, those who gambled on Fed and ECB threats to print money have won. But that does not mean that stock prices will continue to rise now that the news is out. Typically, action is followed by reaction. A downside correction seems due. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.
Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1428.98, low of 9/10/2012
1426.68, high of 8/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1392.62 50-day SMA
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1348.75, 200-day SMA
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below its lows of the previous 10 months on 9/14/12. UUP closed below its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, turning systematically neutral. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. UUP ‘s 50-day SMA has remained above its 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11, but that 50-200 spread is narrowing. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.36, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index turned systematically bullish on 9/13/12 when its 50-day SMA crossed above its 200-day SMA. CRB remains above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) rose above its highs of the previous 10 months on 9/14/12, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish trend. DBA turned systematically bullish on 8/13/12 when its 50-day SMA crossed above its 200-day SMA. DBA remains above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. High and rising food prices could bring trouble for the global economy because more consumer spending for food means less consumer spending available for other goods and services.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 9/14/12. USO turned systematically neutral on 7/16/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. USO rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/14/12. USO’s 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA, although that 50-200 spread is narrowing. Support 34.97, 34.34, 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 9/14/12. GLD turned systematically neutral on 8/3/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 4/17/12. The 50-200 SMA spread is narrowing, however, and a bullish crossover appears probable in weeks ahead. Support: 166.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/13/12 . The GDX/GLD 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11, although that 50-200 spread is beginning to narrow.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 6 months on 9/13/12. SLV price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. The price 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11, but the 50-200 SMA spread is narrowing and a crossover seems possible in weeks ahead. Support 31.46, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 33.75, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV/GLD rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12. SLV/GLD remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing over the past 3 weeks, however, and a bullish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead if the SLV/GLD remains strong.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 9/14/12. JJC rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/21/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. Price rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/7/12. JJC remains systematically neutral because its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. The 50-200 SMA spread has begun to narrow over the past few weeks, however. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this strengthening from bearish to neutral may be suggesting less pessimism about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.21% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
2.18% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
1.67% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
7.26% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
1.82% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
0.55% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
14.63% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
5.68% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
0.95% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.82% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
6.48% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
2.95% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
3.56% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
3.35% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
0.79% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
0.83% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
0.55% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
3.18% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
5.73% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
1.79% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.09% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
0.89% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
1.38% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.76% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
5.27% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
1.31% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
2.73% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
3.03% , FLR , FLUOR
2.61% , CR , CRANE
2.57% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
1.15% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
3.60% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
3.66% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.86% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-1.19% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-2.13% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
-3.00% , KMX , CarMax
-2.36% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
-2.44% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
-2.57% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
-0.54% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
-2.91% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-0.46% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-2.69% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-1.93% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
-1.89% , SO , SOUTHERN
-1.86% , PFE , PFIZER
-0.04% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-2.36% , AMGN , AMGEN
-1.93% , ED , CON ED
-0.40% , SUN , SUNOCO
-1.84% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
-1.07% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
-2.33% , T , AT&T Corp., T
-2.20% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.71% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.50% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
-1.17% , DHR , DANAHER
-2.66% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.97% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
-2.33% , MRK , MERCK & CO
-1.18% , CTAS , CINTAS
-1.24% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-1.32% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-2.58% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-0.77% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.24% India Earnings WTree, EPI
2.80% India PS, PIN
2.50% Austria Index, EWO
2.46% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.43% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.27% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.01% Networking, IGN
1.87% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.82% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.82% Russia MV, RSX
1.80% France Index, EWQ
1.79% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.76% China 25 iS, FXI
1.76% Sweden Index, EWD
1.71% South Korea Index, EWY
1.69% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.52% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.52% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.50% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.50% Energy DJ, IYE
1.48% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.44% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.42% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.38% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.35% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.33% Energy Global, IXC
1.32% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.32% Spain Index, EWP
1.32% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.27% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.24% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.23% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.22% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.20% Germany Index, EWG
1.18% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.18% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.16% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.14% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.12% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.12% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.11% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.10% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.10% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.08% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.07% Japan Index, EWJ
1.05% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.05% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.04% European VIPERs, VGK
1.04% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.03% Canada Index, EWC
1.02% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.02% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.01% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.00% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.98% Mexico Index, EWW
0.98% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.97% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.97% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.96% Singapore Index, EWS
0.95% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.95% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.94% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.93% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.91% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.90% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.90% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.89% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.88% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.87% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.87% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.87% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.82% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.81% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.81% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.80% Global 100, IOO
0.80% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.79% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.77% Dividend International, PID
0.77% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.76% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.75% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.73% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.71% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.69% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.66% Australia Index, EWA
0.65% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.63% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.61% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.60% Italy Index, EWI
0.56% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.53% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.52% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.52% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.51% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.50% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.49% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.48% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.46% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.46% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.44% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.44% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.42% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.41% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.40% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.39% Belgium Index, EWK
0.37% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.36% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.35% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.34% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.32% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.31% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.29% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.27% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.24% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.20% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.20% Water Resources, PHO
0.20% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.11% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.10% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.09% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.05% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.04% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.09% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.10% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.15% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.16% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.38% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.40% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.41% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.43% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.48% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.57% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.60% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.68% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.71% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.74% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.75% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.94% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.32% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.66% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
