The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 10/3/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 15 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 9 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,967.90, up 1.12%) absolute price opened higher and worked upward to a peak at 3:05 pm ET. SPX closed above the (true) open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and slightly above the closing price of the previous 2 days.

NYSE total volume fell 12% to a level 10% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.

The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at -58, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.

Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. Historically, September and October have been the seasonally weakest months of the year for more than a century.

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. Both Averages entered Minor Ripple downside corrections since that new high.

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 9/30/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose above its highs of the previous 13 years 9/18/14 and remains systematically bullish.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/1/14. BKF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 9/10/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/1/14. EEM/SPY has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 10/3/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 12 months on 9/23/14 and remains systematically bullish. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 22 months on 9/30/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been in a corrective mode since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose back above its 50-day SMA on 9/25/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 112.73, 110.34, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 119.43, 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price rose back above its 50-day SMA on 10/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 102.45, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 105.23, 107.62, 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 17 months on 10/1/14 and remains systematically bearish. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/1/14. Absolute price of JNK has turned unusually volatile since 6/24/14.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 15 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 9/18/14.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 2 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 9 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, USO has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 22.74 on 2/19/09. Support 33.64, 32.68, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. GDX/GLD has been systematically neutral most of the time since it bottomed on 12/6/13.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.

Rank

Stock Sectors Ranked by Relative Strength

CLOSE

C/50 SMA

C/200 SMA

50/200

1

Health Care SPDR, XLV

64.41

2.18%

8.14%

5.83%

2

Financial SPDR, XLF

23.28

1.01%

4.37%

3.32%

3

Technology SPDR, XLK

39.58

-0.41%

5.81%

6.24%

4

Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP

45.44

1.44%

3.99%

2.52%

5

Utilities SPDR, XLU

42.54

0.74%

2.95%

2.20%

6

Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY

66.95

-0.92%

1.55%

2.50%

7

Materials SPDR, XLB

48.44

-2.86%

0.97%

3.94%

8

Industrial SPDR, XLI

52.80

-1.11%

0.03%

1.15%

9

Energy SPDR, XLE

88.17

-7.60%

-4.56%

3.29%

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.54% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
2.30% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
2.27% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
1.64% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
1.63% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
2.68% , KR , KROGER
3.00% , CTAS , CINTAS
1.98% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
3.93% , BIG , BIG LOTS
1.30% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.71% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
0.49% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
2.11% , CI , CIGNA
2.01% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
1.49% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
3.66% , AGN , ALLERGAN
2.06% , XLV , Health Care SPDR, XLV
3.03% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
1.69% , WAG , WALGREEN
1.14% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
2.18% , HSP , HOSPIRA
1.30% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
1.61% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
2.33% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
1.13% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
2.92% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
1.16% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
1.95% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
2.44% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
1.73% , ACE , ACE
1.90% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
2.75% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
1.40% , SYY , SYSCO
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-16.80% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-1.87% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-1.82% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.22% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-2.08% , TER , TERADYNE
-0.29% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-1.77% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.49% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-4.48% , NE , NOBLE
-0.66% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-0.42% , MHFI.K , McGraw Hill Financial, Inc., MHFI.K
-1.59% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.33% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
-1.00% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.35% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.70% , XLNX , XILINX
-1.68% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
-0.02% , SHV , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-2.18% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.23% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-0.11% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-0.05% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-0.88% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.00% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-0.13% , MAS , MASCO
-0.09% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.10% , ASH , ASHLAND
-0.23% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-0.04% , TXN.O , TEXAS INSTRUMENT
-0.02% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.60% , Brazil Index, EWZ
2.12% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.06% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.96% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.80% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.63% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.60% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.54% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.44% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.43% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.39% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.36% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.30% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.29% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.26% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.23% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.23% , Japan Index, EWJ
1.23% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.22% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.19% , Value VIPERs, VTV
1.18% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
1.18% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.16% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.15% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
1.14% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.13% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.12% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.10% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.09% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
1.09% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.09% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.08% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.06% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.05% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
1.03% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.03% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.01% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
1.00% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.99% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.99% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.93% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.93% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.93% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.91% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.89% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.88% , India PS, PIN
0.87% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.86% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.85% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.84% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.83% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.83% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.82% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.80% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.80% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.78% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.76% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.76% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.76% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.75% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.74% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.73% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.68% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.68% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.68% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.67% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.66% , Water Resources, PHO
0.64% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.64% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.64% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.63% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.63% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.63% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.58% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.57% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.57% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.53% , Networking, IGN
0.53% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.50% , Global 100, IOO
0.49% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.43% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.40% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.34% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.32% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.30% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.29% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.29% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.29% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.26% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.23% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.23% , Russia MV, RSX
0.22% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.13% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.13% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.11% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.09% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.07% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.05% , Dividend International, PID
0.00% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.00% , Italy Index, EWI
0.00% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.00% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.02% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.02% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.04% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.05% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.09% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.11% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.11% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.13% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.14% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.15% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.16% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.16% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.16% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.19% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.25% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.25% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.29% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.32% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.33% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.35% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.36% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.37% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.37% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.40% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.41% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.43% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.60% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.69% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.70% , France Index, EWQ
-0.88% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.95% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.00% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.02% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.11% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.59% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.64% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.75% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.77% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.82% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.18% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2019.26, high of 9/19/2014
1974.76, 50-day SMA

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1902.21, 200-day SMA
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013