Sorry for not posting since Monday but sometimes real life gets in the way.
Anyway, today’s post title is probably the most annoying catch phrase since yada yada yada – not that there’s anything wrong with that. But indeed the S&P 500 did accomplish its first mission of reaching 805 (actually 803, but that is close enough). Now we have to see what happens here.
Will it back down as everyone realizes that this was just a dead elephant bounce (cats are too small to matter in this market)?
Or will it rest for a bit, defying the nattering nabobs, before marching on its next mission higher?
Here’s my take on the relatives and this can be extrapolated to the public in general:
My father-in-law called me to sell all his mutual fund holdings on October 10, November 21 and March 6. (I already sold half his stuff many, many months earlier). Notice anything about those dates? Yep – exactly the major lows in the market.
I finally acquiesced to his panic on March 6 because he was really serious – and really scared – that day. After all, it is his money. But the technician in me was screaming and I only sold a few percent. Of course, that was the low and the Dow rallied almost 400 the next day.
Nothing we have not heard before. But the very next day he calls with a “you just can’t win” tone of defeat thinking that he made a major mistake and sold out at the absolute bottom. You could feel his elation when I told him that I only sold a little.
So what was his next question? You guessed it! “Should I buy something?”
I reached through the phone and smacked him in the back of his head.
Anyway, multiply that several thousand fold and conclude that there is another round of scaring the pants off everyone coming before this bear market is over. But as I wrote in Barron’s Online, I don’t think it will set a new low.