WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower, except for Minneapolis which closed higher. It looked like speculative selling hit the pit. Minneapolis December was very strong and it seems that the market is getting squeezed on tight available supplies of Hard Red Spring Wheat. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained all that much in areas of the central and southern Great Plains. Most areas could see some showers this weekend. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas were hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains in the north, but harvest conditions now are good. Yield reports have been disappointing and have been supporting futures. Wheat is still finding its way into feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. The spread is correcting, but Wheat is still cheap to Corn. Wheat lost to Corn yesterday. Charts show that Wheat trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains after weekend rains. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions after some rains today. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions after some showers today. Temperatures will average near normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and higher for Hard Red Winter Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 602, 597, and 591 December, with resistance at 623, 632, and 640 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 640 December. Support is at 678, 675, and 665 December, with resistance at 711, 715, and 720 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 1020 December. Support is at 896, 890, and 880 December, and resistance is at 937, 942, and 950 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 4, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
WHEAT– CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 526,548
: Positions
: 69,647 164,138 175,491 16,368 36,496 53,741 85,698 53,756 16,556 27,012 82,990
: Changes from: September 27, 2011
: 4,359 6,407 -4,420 33 2,609 -599 -4,857 315 996 -2,390 9,350
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 13.2 31.2 33.3 3.1 6.9 10.2 16.3 10.2 3.1 5.1 15.8
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 426
: 80 94 19 8 25 50 87 66 67 80 109
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 4, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
WHEAT — KANSAS CITY BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 170,193
: Positions
: 32,693 82,011 22,839 0 2,614 41,228 14,910 21,790 9,945 3,745 14,755
: Changes from: September 27, 2011
: 3,169 -6,286 589 -59 157 -10,045 1,865 3,634 13 -595 3,805
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 19.2 48.2 13.4 0.0 1.5 24.2 8.8 12.8 5.8 2.2 8.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 178
: 44 57 15 0 8 32 21 25 26 10 26
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 4, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
WHEAT — MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 42,806
: Positions
: 14,305 26,031 504 0 203 7,753 1,018 1,034 2,674 284 3,657
: Changes from: September 27, 2011
: -57 116 -2 0 37 -527 178 -304 161 -289 -961
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 33.4 60.8 1.2 0.0 0.5 18.1 2.4 2.4 6.2 0.7 8.5
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 49
: 20 17 . 0 . 5 . . 8 . 12
RICE
General Comments Prices were lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative and harvest selling. Charts trends turned down with the price action. Rice can trade higher on the fundamentals, but right now is absorbing the harvest in Arkansas. Philippines will reevaluate its import program for next year in light of recent and coming storms. Vietnam prices are near three year highs. Chinese prices are high. US weather will feature dry conditions in the Delta that should promote good harvest progress. Yield reports are mixed in Arkansas, but overall the reports are not showing any big disasters or any huge yields, either. Milling yields have not been good as harvest progresses. US cash markets are reported to be steady to weak in Arkansas.
Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear weak.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions, but some showers are possible midweek in the Delta. Temperatures will average above normal early this week and below normal late this week. Philippines will make changes to its 2012 Rice import policy next month after the stroms there pass. Two typhoons have hit the country already this year and another could hit the country this week. Vietnamese prices are higher today after Thailand increased domestic and export prices under its new Rice support program.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1855 and 1805 November. Support is at 1540, 1530, and 1476 November, and resistance is at 1580, 1590, and 1604 November.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 4, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
ROUGH RICE –CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 19,102
: Positions
: 7,131 11,909 2,562 0 94 2,791 1,350 17 1,003 2,387 2,099
: Changes from: September 27, 2011
: 1,291 -261 -441 0 -47 -489 29 14 126 48 606
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 37.3 62.3 13.4 0.0 0.5 14.6 7.1 0.1 5.3 12.5 11.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 86
: 19 18 9 0 . 15 8 . 12 17 17
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower on what appeared to be speculative and harvest related selling. Yield reports continue to be higher than expected from the early harvest, although some yield reports are moving lower as the harvest progresses. Much improved harvest weather in all parts of the Corn Belt for this week has helped speed the work. Some harvest has been reported in parts of Iowa and Illinois, and harvest is now moving north. Yields to the east of Illinois do not seem as strong, and western yields are starting to fade a little bit as the harvest there progresses. The cash market is firm, and cash market buyers have been easier to find with current prices, but sellers are not interested in selling very much. Ethanol producers were said to be the strongest bidders. Basis levels are steady in the country.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 618 and 643 December. Support is at 594, 576, and 572 December, and resistance is at 604, 617, and 623 December. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 316, 311, and 306 September, and resistance is at 324, 330, and 334 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 4, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
CORN — CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,912,911
: Positions
: 405,201 697,697 261,466 67,910 128,196 217,948 46,614 185,996 77,145 49,651 453,614
: Changes from: September 27, 2011
: 42,744 -7,876 -11,664 -2,086 6,520 -29,384 3,151 10,933 -5,533 6,019 52,291
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 21.2 36.5 13.7 3.6 6.7 11.4 2.4 9.7 4.0 2.6 23.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 834
: 263 346 17 11 25 104 42 85 136 125 214
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 4, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
OATS — CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 17,637
: Positions
: 8,884 11,424 1,940 0 0 1,824 2,020 0 383 264 1,784
: Changes from: September 27, 2011
: 1,029 248 -55 0 0 -294 201 0 -3 4 159
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 50.4 64.8 11.0 0.0 0.0 10.3 11.5 0.0 2.2 1.5 10.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 44
: 11 9 4 0 0 7 9 0 7 4 7
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 4, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
CBT ETHANOL — CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 29,000 U.S. GALLONS)
CFTC Code #025601 Open Interest is 8,872
: Positions
: 6,601 6,599 18 868 71 593 62 163 521 213 423
: Changes from: September 27, 2011
: -283 187 17 53 -26 86 -9 9 222 -127 -343
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 74.4 74.4 0.2 9.8 0.8 6.7 0.7 1.8 5.9 2.4 4.8
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 31
: 16 20 . . . . . . . . .
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products found a combination of speculator and hedge related selling to close mixed. Reports of good yields in the country hurt futures, and harvest progress is rapid this week due to dry and warm weather. Traders are looking for demand news. The export side of the market seems quiet, but reports indicated that processors were stepping up buying interest. Western areas will continue to move ahead with harvest, and eastern areas can try to catch up this week. Basis levels are weak in the country, but farmers are not selling much. Brazil farmers are starting to plant Soybeans in the Center West area this week. It has been too dry in center west areas, but rains were seen this week, so planting is started. However, there might be some losses in some areas from the delayed planting.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1152, 1149, and 1144 November, and resistance is at 1183, 1206, and 1210 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 301.00, 299.00, and 297.00 December, and resistance is at 306.00, 312.00, and 315.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4890, 4850, and 4760 December, with resistance at 4960, 5000, and 5100 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 4, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
SOYBEANS — CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 889,103
: Positions
: 224,325 333,889 111,676 19,569 59,931 79,937 29,815 89,349 30,170 22,003 239,007
: Changes from: September 27, 2011
: 21,151 -14,676 -12,739 -362 12,827 -16,112 2,976 10,270 3,383 1,098 49,006
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 25.2 37.6 12.6 2.2 6.7 9.0 3.4 10.0 3.4 2.5 26.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 568
: 107 162 17 10 24 59 61 79 97 113 180
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 4, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
SOYBEAN OIL — CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 60,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 374,395
: Positions
: 126,777 173,972 62,584 1,513 17,202 43,111 42,882 25,122 14,215 21,846 56,811
: Changes from: September 27, 2011
: 10,221 -1,058 -1,828 127 4,354 -3,116 9,048 5,446 316 -2,913 15,241
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 33.9 46.5 16.7 0.4 4.6 11.5 11.5 6.7 3.8 5.8 15.2
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 253
: 54 60 16 . 13 35 44 23 31 38 56
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 4, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
SOYBEAN MEAL — CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 100 TONS)
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 215,479
: Positions
: 85,882 96,877 17,124 1,555 1,615 28,929 29,527 19,576 6,112 12,300 22,394
: Changes from: September 27, 2011
: 4,649 -3,400 -70 -3,698 106 -4,285 6,660 4,754 999 592 3,878
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 39.9 45.0 7.9 0.7 0.7 13.4 13.7 9.1 2.8 5.7 10.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 200
: 65 57 13 . 8 26 31 20 20 21 34
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on what appeared to be speculative and commercial buying. Light selling from producers and elevators was noted. Processors and exporters were the best buyers. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Most crops appear to be in good condition as harvest progresses, and yields are reported to be very good. Harvest is ahead of normal. Palm Oil was higher today on outside markets. MPOB data was a little negative, but in line with expectations. Private export data for the first third of the month was bullish. SGS said exports so far this month are 486,882 tons, from 389,069 tons last month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 518.00, 511.00, and 505.00 November, with resistance at 530.00, 532.00, and 542.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2600 December. Support is at 2770, 2755, and 2740 December, with resistance at 2830, 2850, and 2865 December. ITK estimated exports at 496,918 tons, from 377,038 tons last month.
Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Weekly Crush Winnipeg (Dow Jones) – The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association reported the Canadian oilseed crush for the week ended October 5, 2011, as follows:
Figures are in metric tons. R-denotes revision.
Cumulative Cumulative
Week 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11
Ended Canola (Aug/Jul) Sybns (Aug/Jul)
Oct 05 121,185 1,035,894 1,012,48 17,685 211,328 237,560
Sep 28 120,713 914,709 898,528 17,849 193,643 213,387
Sep 21 131,994 793,996 801,729 25,205 175,794 184,452
Sep 14 115,184 662,002 696,141 22,390 150,589 161,238
Sep 07 111,669 546,818 587,415 22,472 128,199 132,011
Crush Capacity Utilization
This Week Year-to-Date Year Ago
Canola 82.6% 75.6% 74.6%
Soybeans 39.5% 50.5% 56.8%
10/09 23:43 CDT Malaysia’s Sept palm oil stocks up 12.4 pct-MPOB
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 10 (Reuters) –Malaysia’s September palm oil stocks rose 12.4 percent to 2,119,985 tonnes from a revised 1,886,352 tonnes in August, industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board said on Monday. September’s exceeded market expectations that the world’s No.2 palm oil producer likely rose 3.5 percent to 1.95 million tonnes.
[PALM/POLL]
The following is a breakdown of Malaysian Palm Oil Board figures and Reuters estimates for September:
(volumes in tonnes)
Sept 2011 Sept poll Sept 2010 Aug 2011
Output 1,869,369 1,800,000 1,562,912 1,667,230
Stocks 2,119,985 1,950,000 1,713,926 1,886,352
Exports 1,543,425 1,500,000 1,468,840 1,693,073
Imports* 69,857 50,000 85,526 63,860
* Refers to Malaysian imports of mostly Indonesian crude palm oil
Midwest Weather: Showers and storms from west to east about midweek. Temperatures will average above normal early this week and below normal late this week.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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