WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in consolidation trading on Friday. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained all that much in areas of the central and southern Great Plains. Most farmers are planting in the Great Plains, but crops will struggle. USDA showed poor conditions in the reports Monday, implying poor production potential again this year. Some rains were seen in the central and southern Great Plains last week to benefit crops and planting. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas were hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains, and prices in Minneapolis have been strong. Wheat is still going to feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. Wheat will see a lot of selling on any rally attempts as USDA world data shows that there is plenty around except for here in the US. However, there are increasing reports of weather problems for new crop Wheat in Ukraine and Russia. Demand problems for the US imply that supplies will be ample despite the short production. Wheat prices will need very strong domestic demand to hold rallies together. Charts show that Wheat trends are mixed, but trends are trying to turn up.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, although showers are possible about Wednesday. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the north and near to below normal in the south. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat. Egypt bought 120,000 tons of Wheat from Ukraine over the weekend.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 638, 630, and 620 December, with resistance at 655, 662, and 667 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 722, 718, and 715 December, with resistance at 747, 757, and 760 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 903, 896, and 880 December, and resistance is at 932, 934, and 937 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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WHEAT – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 537,170
: Positions
: 69,883 166,270 175,254 14,493 37,127 59,045 87,720 53,522 14,729 29,231 86,395
: Changes from: October 18, 2011
: -2,640 2,177 -2,212 -1,129 980 4,286 -4,890 -5,301 -1,079 817 -445
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 13.0 31.0 32.6 2.7 6.9 11.0 16.3 10.0 2.7 5.4 16.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 428
: 86 100 19 9 24 47 89 70 66 79 113
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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WHEAT – KANSAS CITY BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 164,177
: Positions
: 34,520 77,749 22,909 258 4,072 34,026 16,654 21,488 12,551 3,885 11,508
: Changes from: October 18, 2011
: 438 -431 -584 7 746 -3,272 -1,339 -1,021 1,961 330 -1,112
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 21.0 47.4 14.0 0.2 2.5 20.7 10.1 13.1 7.6 2.4 7.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 174
: 46 55 16 . 13 30 22 28 19 14 26
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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WHEAT – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 44,059
: Positions
: 14,156 28,231 575 44 625 9,031 970 777 2,872 321 2,916
: Changes from: October 18, 2011
: -428 744 124 0 355 434 80 32 315 -1 -109
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 32.1 64.1 1.3 0.1 1.4 20.5 2.2 1.8 6.5 0.7 6.6
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 54
: 21 18 . . . 7 . 4 8 . 12
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RICE
General Comments Prices were lower Friday on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation before the November deliveries get underway today. News that EU ministers had at least partially resolved the economic problems and crisis helped support values, but doubts about how the program would perform created the selling. Talk that Vietnam is temporarily sold out of Rice and the Thai problems with weather and prices helped bullish hopes that China could start to import from here. Philippines will reevaluate its import program for next year in light of recent and storms. Thailand floods have hurt Rice there and other crops as well, with the Rice Association there still estimating losses at 3.5 million tons of Paddy, and losses are expected in Cambodia as well. US weather will feature dry conditions in the Delta that should promote good harvest progress, although harvest is now about over. US cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1758 and 1832 January. Support is at 1684, 1650, and 1638 January, with resistance at 1715, 1756, and 1785 January.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 19,082
: Positions
: 6,212 11,606 2,429 0 57 2,432 1,228 436 1,261 2,289 2,353
: Changes from: October 18, 2011
: -671 162 83 0 49 154 -91 70 17 -65 -610
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 32.6 60.8 12.7 0.0 0.3 12.7 6.4 2.3 6.6 12.0 12.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 81
: 18 18 9 0 . 11 6 . 14 12 19
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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher on follow through buying as a resolution to the European crisis was examined for details. A lot of traders wonder if the bailout will work in the end. Farmers are almost done with the Soybeans harvest and will return to finish the Corn after he Soybeans are done. Harvest should be very active in all areas early this week, but will slow down again later this week as rains return. Yields to the east of Illinois do not seem as strong, and western yields are starting to fade a little bit as the harvest there progresses. The cash market is steady to firm, and cash market buyers have been easier to find with current prices, but sellers are not interested in selling very much. Farmers are not selling much anyway and basis levels have been firming in the country. Export demand is not strong and there is talk of demand being lost to Ukraine now. The lack of farmer selling has supported bull spreads.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 647, 643, and 632 December, and resistance is at 657, 666, and 669 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 324 and 311 December. Support is at 329, 326, and 324 September, and resistance is at 338, 340, and 345 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,843,331
: Positions
: 383,234 701,270 254,034 61,407 132,335 236,128 49,006 190,589 67,289 40,915 396,401
: Changes from: October 18, 2011
: -21,715 3,304 -6,753 -3,130 1,097 12,160 -17,058 -9,205 -4,454 -4,200 -41,975
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 20.8 38.0 13.8 3.3 7.2 12.8 2.7 10.3 3.7 2.2 21.5
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 807
: 262 332 17 11 25 95 49 89 121 128 221
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 18,239
: Positions
: 9,219 12,612 1,759 0 0 2,500 1,859 0 207 225 1,583
: Changes from: October 18, 2011
: 337 276 -113 0 0 239 22 0 -180 12 42
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 50.5 69.1 9.6 0.0 0.0 13.7 10.2 0.0 1.1 1.2 8.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 41
: 12 9 4 0 0 9 7 0 . 5 6
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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CBT ETHANOL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 29,000 U.S. GALLONS)
CFTC Code #025601 Open Interest is 10,833
: Positions
: 7,653 7,033 117 669 231 603 52 163 310 948 754
: Changes from: October 18, 2011
: -118 -303 10 30 24 9 0 0 11 211 73
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 70.6 64.9 1.1 6.2 2.1 5.6 0.5 1.5 2.9 8.8 7.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 34
: 17 20 . . . . . . . 5 5
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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CHICAGO ETHANOL SWAP – NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 42,000 U.S. GALLONS)
CFTC Code #025651 Open Interest is 19,830
: Positions
: 18,434 16,463 0 881 472 125 0 0 296 1,599 134
: Changes from: October 18, 2011
: -1,762 -1,920 0 -113 48 0 0 0 124 390 -5
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 93.0 83.0 0.0 4.4 2.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.5 8.1 0.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 62
: 37 40 0 . . . 0 0 4 5 4
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SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on European economic crisis progress. Banks accepted a loss on the bonds they own, and the EU issued some new support for the country. This helped support commodities across the Board as the US Dollar moved sharply lower. Farmers are starting to wrap up the Soybeans harvest and will return to finish the Corn after he Soybeans are done. Soybeans are getting harvested and yield reports have been good to very good, but farmers do not feel like selling. The lack of selling has supported bull spreads. Rains over the last couple of days have slowed progress, and more rain is possible tomorrow. Traders are looking for demand news, and there has not been much. Basis levels are firm in the country, and farmers are not selling much. Brazil farmers are planting Soybeans in all areas this week. Planting is underway in Argentina on what is called mostly good conditions.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1218, 1207, and 1195 January, and resistance is at 1252, 1264, and 1284 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 315.00, 314.00, and 312.00 December, and resistance is at 325.00, 327.00, and 330.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5100, 5060, and 4960 December, with resistance at 5240, 5250, and 5300 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 696,883
: Positions
: 168,408 318,957 128,013 8,027 41,931 85,813 38,807 72,198 31,485 14,914 113,883
: Changes from: October 18, 2011
: -44,596 -31,255 6,451 -8,308 -28,015 -5,747 1,635 -10,628 -580 -6,466 -96,723
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 24.2 45.8 18.4 1.2 6.0 12.3 5.6 10.4 4.5 2.1 16.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 466
: 125 158 19 6 21 66 46 67 73 64 119
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 60,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 380,477
: Positions
: 128,669 177,194 71,115 72 20,687 40,046 51,455 26,350 14,216 17,160 53,133
: Changes from: October 18, 2011
: 9,306 890 -216 0 1,577 -4,438 5,902 -524 1,411 -924 2,362
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 33.8 46.6 18.7 0.0 5.4 10.5 13.5 6.9 3.7 4.5 14.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 263
: 53 58 18 . 14 35 47 27 34 39 59
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 25, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 100 TONS)
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 216,888
: Positions
: 93,323 95,794 16,710 1,777 2,564 25,389 33,283 18,278 4,410 11,272 20,758
: Changes from: October 18, 2011
: -1,474 3,310 1,577 -275 39 2,123 -2,349 -863 -1,184 -247 1,315
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 43.0 44.2 7.7 0.8 1.2 11.7 15.3 8.4 2.0 5.2 9.6
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 193
: 61 57 13 . 8 25 35 19 18 19 34
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CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on price action in Chicago. It was a low volume trade. Basis levels are reported strong, and end users are looking to futures to get priced. There was a lot of spreading out of November positions as well. Processors and exporters were the best buyers, but showed less interest as Chicago prices moved lower. StatsCanreported that 2010-11 Canola Oil and CanolaMeal exports were at record highs. It said the country shipped about 2.4 milion tons of oil and about 3.0 million tons of Meal for the year. Palm Oil was higher today. Ideas of lower production in Malaysia supported the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 528.00, 522.00, and 518.00 November, with resistance at 534.00, 537.00, and 539.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3030 January. Support is at 2950, 2930, and 2900 January, with resistance at 3025, 3045, and 3070 January.
DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Weekly Crush – Oct 28
Winnipeg (Dow Jones) – The Canadian Oilseed Processors
Association reported the Canadian oilseed crush for the week ended
October 26, 2011, as follows:
Figures are in metric tons. R-denotes revision.
Cumulative Cumulative
Week 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11
Ended Canola (Aug/Jul) Sybns (Aug/Jul)
Oct 26 126,681 1,402,250 1,398,876 29,933 297,726 323,246
Oct 19 115,338 1,275,569 1,267,745 28,717 267,793 294,735
Oct 12 124,337 1,160,231 1,136,371 27,748 239,076 267,093
Oct 05 121,185 1,035,894 1,012,418 17,685 211,328 237,560
Sep 28 120,713 914,709 898,528 17,849 193,643 213,387
Crush Capacity Utilization
This Week Year-to-Date Year Ago
Canola 86.4% 78.7% 79.3%
Soybeans 66.8% 54.7% 59.4%
Midwest Weather: Mostly dry. Temperatures will average below normal.
Questions Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
