USDA REPORTS: the reports are called neutral for Corn and Wheat, but negative for Soybeans. However, all markets are called lower to start with due to a very strong US Dollar and weakness in outside markets.
11/09 07:30 CST November 9 U.S. soy, wheat, corn highlights – USDA
November 9 (Reuters) – The U.S. Agriculture Department issued the following
key U.S. crop information in its monthly world supply-and-demand report.
The data includes last month’s forecast for comparison.
SOYBEANS
(Million bushels, except where noted)
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Projections
Actual Estimate Oct Nov
SOYBEANS
Planted (mln acre) 77.5 77.4 75.0 75.0
Harvested (mln acre) 76.4 76.6 73.7 73.7
Yield/acre (bu) 44.0 43.5 41.5 41.3
Production 3,359 3,329 3,060 3,046
Crushings 1,752 1,648 1,635 1,635
Exports 1,499 1,501 1,375 1,325
Ending stocks 151 215 160 195
SOYBEAN OIL (mln lbs)
Production 19,615 18,888 18,670 18,670
Exports 3,359 3,250 1,800 1,500
Ending stocks 3,406 2,425 2,171 2,080
SOYBEAN MEAL (thou short tons)
Production 41,707 39,251 38,835 38,835
Exports 11,160 9,100 8,550 8,800
Ending stocks 302 350 300 300
WHEAT
Planted (mln acre) 59.2 53.6 54.4 54.4
Harvested (mln acre) 49.9 47.6 45.7 45.7
Yield/acre (bu) 44.5 46.3 43.9 43.7
Production (mln bu) 2,218 2,207 2,008 1,999
Exports (mln bu) 879 1,289 975 975
Ending stocks (mln bu) 976 862 837 828
WHEAT BY CLASS
(mln bushels)
Year beginning Hard Hard Soft
June 1 Winter Spring Red White Durum Total
2010/11
Production 1,018 570 237 275 106 2,207
Exports 616 339 109 182 43 1,289
Ending stocks 386 185 171 85 35 862
2011/12 (projected)
Production 780 398 458 314 50 1,999
Exports 400 250 125 180 20 975
Ending stocks:
November 318 129 244 112 26 828
October 298 157 244 111 28 837
CORN
(Million bushels, except where noted)
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Projections
Actual Estimate Oct Nov
Planted (mln acre) 86.4 88.2 91.9 91.9
Harvested (mln acre) 79.5 81.4 83.9 83.9
Yield/acre (bu) 164.7 152.8 148.1 146.7
Production 13,092 12,447 12,433 12,310
Exports 1,980 1,835 1,600 1,600
Ending stocks 1,708 1,128 866 843
U.S. ETHANOL PRODUCTION
Ethanol and By-products 4,591 5,021 5,000 5,000
U.S. SOY OIL FOR BIODIESEL
Methyl Ester 1,680 2,550 3,600 3,600
FORECASTS: Analysts polled by Reuters expected the USDA report to show the
following U.S. crop data:
Corn 2011/12 end stocks……………..795 mln bushels
Corn 2011/12 production…………..12.381 bln bushels
Corn 2011/12 yield……………….147.7 bushels/acre
Soybeans 2011/12 end stocks………….182 mln bushels
Soybeans 2011/12 production………..3.048 bln bushels
Soybeans 2011/12 yield…………….41.4 bushels/acre
Wheat 2011/12 end stocks…………….817 mln bushels
11/09 07:30 CST November 9 World grain highlights – USDA
WASHINGTON, Nov 9 (Reuters) – World grain production will total 2,280.08
million tonnes in the 2011/12 crop year, up from a previous forecast of
2,278.86 million, the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Wednesday.
World output for 2011/12 would include 683.30 million tonnes of wheat,
1,135.82 million of coarse (feed) grains and 460.95 million of rice.
Oilseeds were pegged at 454.79 million tonnes.
The following are highlights from USDA’s latest monthly World Agricultural
Supply an Demand report, with the previous month’s estimate for comparison:
WORLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES
2011/12 2010/11
Nov Oct Nov
WHEAT (mln tonnes)
Australia Crop 26.00 26.00 26.00
Australia Exports 19.00 19.00 18.30
Argentina Crop 13.00 13.50 15.50
Argentina Exports 7.50 7.50 9.30
EU Crop 137.49 136.33 135.67
EU Exports 17.00 16.00 22.85
Canada Crop 24.20 24.20 23.17
Canada Exports 18.00 18.00 16.50
China Crop 117.00 117.00 115.18
China Imports 1.50 1.00 0.93
FSU Crop 112.45 110.45 80.97
FSU Exports 35.71 34.71 14.13
SOYBEANS (mln tonnes)
Brazil Crop 75.00 73.50 75.50
Brazil Exports 38.00 36.50 29.95
Brazil Imports 0.05 0.05 0.03
Argentina Crop 52.00 53.00 49.00
Argentina Exports 10.80 11.80 9.21
China Imports 56.50 56.50 52.34
SOYOIL (mln tonnes)
China Imports 1.40 1.60 1.32
SOYMEAL (mln tonnes)
China Imports 0.30 0.30 0.29
Nov Oct Nov
CORN (mln tonnes)
Argentina Crop 29.00 27.50 22.50
Argentina Exports 20.00 19.50 15.00
S.Africa Crop 12.50 12.50 11.80
S.Africa Exports 2.00 2.00 3.00
China Crop 184.50 182.00 177.25
China Exports 0.20 0.20 0.11
China Imports 3.00 2.00 0.98
COTTON (mln bales)
China Crop 33.50 33.50 30.50
China End Stocks 13.55 13.55 11.60
China Exports 0.05 0.05 0.12
China Imports 14.00 14.00 11.98
India Crop 27.50 27.50 25.40
FORECASTS: Analysts polled by Reuters expected the USDA report to show the
following world crop data:
Corn 2011/12 end stocks……………..122.378 mln tonnes
Soybean 2011/12 end stocks……………63.634 mln tonnes
Wheat 2011/12 end stocks…………….201.562 mln tones
WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed higher on what appeared to be speculative buying. Traders were also getting ready for the USDA crop reports today. Most farmers are planting in the Great Plains, but crops will struggle due to less than optimal rains. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas were hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains, and prices in Minneapolis have been strong. Wheat is still going to feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. Wheat will see a lot of selling on any rally attempts as USDA world data shows that there is plenty around except for here in the US. However, there are increasing reports of weather problems for new crop Wheat in Ukraine and Russia. Demand problems for the US imply that supplies will be ample despite the short production. Wheat prices will need very strong domestic demand to hold rallies together. Charts show that Wheat trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, although showers are possible today. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal much of the week and enar to above normal by this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and firm for Hard Red Winter Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 630, 620, and 618 December, with resistance at 644, 647, and 651 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 725, 712, and 702 December, with resistance at 740, 747, and 757 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 1020 December. Support is at 936, 916, and 903 December, and resistance is at 950, 957, and 968 December.
RICE
General Comments: Prices were near lower yesterday in liquidation trading. There just does not seem to be enough demand to support prices real well. Talk that Vietnam is temporarily sold out of Rice and the Thai problems with weather and prices helped bullish hopes that China could start to import from here. Vietnamese exports were down sharply last month to reflect supply tightness there. Philippines will reevaluate its import program for next year in light of recent and storms. Thailand floods have hurt Rice there and other crops as well, with the Rice Association there still estimating losses at 3.5 million tons of Paddy, and losses are expected in Cambodia as well. Philippines along with Indonesia might need to buy from India if Vietnam is out and if Thai crops are lost or partially lost. US cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1582, 1550, and 1530 January, with resistance at 1631, 1638, and 1644 January.
11/09 06:51a CST DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Nov 9
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates.
—World Price— MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 23.00 15.05 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 22.69 15.40 0.00
Brokens 16.27 — —
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher in positioning before the USDA reports today. Farmers are almost done with the Soybeans harvest and will return to finish the Corn after the Soybeans are done. Harvest should be very active in all areas early this week, but will slow down again later this week as rains return. Yields to the east of Illinois do not seem as strong, and western yields are starting to fade a little bit as the harvest there progresses. The cash market is steady to firm, and cash market buyers have been easier to find with current prices, but sellers are not interested in selling very much. Farmers are not selling much anyway and basis levels have been firming in the country. Export demand is not strong and there is talk of demand being lost to Ukraine now. The lack of farmer selling has supported bull spreads.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 652, 647, and 643 December, and resistance is at 666, 669, and 677 December. Trends in Oats are down. Support is at 322, 321, and 320 September, and resistance is at 328, 331, and 338 December.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher as traders were getting ready for the USDA reports. Farmers are wrapping up the Soybeans harvest and will return to finish the Corn after he Soybeans are done. Soybeans are getting harvested and yield reports have been good to very good, but farmers do not feel like selling. The lack of selling has supported bull spreads. Rains over the last couple of days have slowed progress, and more rain is possible tomorrow. Traders are looking for demand news, and there has not been much. Basis levels are firm in the country, and farmers are not selling much. Brazil farmers are planting Soybeans in all areas this week. Planting is active in Argentina on what is called mostly good conditions.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. USDA said that Soybeans are now 92% harvested.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1195, 1182, and 1165 January, and resistance is at 1218, 1224, and 1242 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 306.00, 301.00, and 292.00 December, and resistance is at 313.00, 317.00, and 325.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5100, 5080, and 5060 December, with resistance at 5240, 5250, and 5300 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on price action in Chicago. It was a low volume trade. Basis levels are reported strong, and end users are looking to futures to get priced. Palm Oil was higher today. Ideas of lower production in Malaysia due to poor weather supported the market. Traders were waiting for the USDA reports due today.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 523.00, 519.00, and 515.00 November, with resistance at 533.00, 539.00, and 544.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3030 January. Support is at 2990, 2960, and 2900 January, with resistance at 3045, 3070, and 3090 January.
Midwest Weather: Showers and rains today and tomorrow, then dry again late in the week. Temperatures will average above normal today and near to below normal later in the week.
Questions Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
