COTTON
General Comments: Futures were a little higher yesterday as traders got ready for the USDA reports released this morning. Speculators were seen as the best buyers and appeared to be covering short positions after the market made targets. The situation in Europe still has traders nervous, and any loss of demand will hurt. Traders are also getting ready for the USDA production reports on Wednesday. Many thought that USDA could cut production as there are ideas that the Texas estimate was too high given the weather. The harvest is still moving forward in Texas and weather there remains dry, although showers were reported over the weekend. Chart trends are mixed.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get showers and rain should develop today and then move east through Thursday, then dry weather. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average mostly near to below normal. The USDA average spot price is now 94.80 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.036 million bales, from 0.035 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 95.00, 94.00, and 90.00 December, with resistance of 98.00, 99.00, and 100.00 December.

11/09 07:30 CST November 9 U.S. cotton highlights – USDA
November 9 (Reuters) – The U.S. Agriculture Department issued the following
key U.S. crop information on cotton in its monthly world supply-and-demand
report.
The data includes last month’s forecast for comparison.
COTTON
(mln 480 pounds/bales)
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Projections
Actual Estimate Oct Nov
Planted (mln acre) 9.15 10.97 14.72 14.72
Harvested (mln acre) 7.53 10.70 9.85 9.85
Yield/acre 777 812 809 794
Production 12.19 18.10 16.61 16.30
Exports 12.04 14.38 11.50 11.30
Ending stocks 2.95 2.60 3.90 3.80

11/09 07:34a CST DJ USDA Cotton Ginnings For Period Ending Nov 1-Nov 9
Figures are for cotton ginned prior to November 1, for 2008-11
crops. State breakdown is for upland cotton, unless denoted pima. In
running bales. (d) denotes withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
gins.
Cotton Ginnings: Running Bales Ginned (Excluding Linters),
by Crop, State, and United States, November 1, 2008-2011
===========================================================================
Crop Running Bales Ginned
and ==============================================================-
State 2008 2009 2010 2011
===========================================================================
All Cotton
Alabama 203,150 28,100 284,500 221,200
Arizona 69,750 97,500 94,850 109,100
Arkansas 852,800 140,750 987,050 719,750
California 141,900 143,550 88,050 161,950
Florida 39,250 6,400 55,250 39,200
Georgia 428,800 209,450 806,650 684,750
Kansas 2/ (NA) (NA) (NA)
Louisiana 265,450 122,300 406,100 485,150
Mississippi 393,050 76,600 754,400 678,500
Missouri 407,700 62,750 560,000 361,600
New Mexico 3,000 8,200 5,200 8,200
North Carolina 231,850 220,350 499,650 445,000
Oklahoma 44,050 23,950 90,900 5,550
South Carolina 72,200 58,750 128,900 112,250
Tennessee 359,600 64,250 592,750 471,100
Texas 807,050 897,300 2,532,150 1,931,050
Virginia 38,850 29,250 60,100 57,850
United States 4,358,450 2,189,450 7,946,500 6,492,200
American Pima
Arizona 1/ 950 – 1/
California 74,300 74,500 33,050 68,900
New Mexico 1/ 650 1,000 1/
Texas 1/ 5,650 1,350 1/
United States 74,700 81,750 35,400 71,350
===========================================================================
– Represents zero.
(NA) Not available.
1/ Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual gins.
2/ First running bales ginned estimate will be published in the
“Cotton Ginnings” publication released December 2011.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower yesterday in light volume trading. Traders were waiting for the USDA production reports, and many expected USDA to keep production estimates about unchanged. The tropics are mostly quiet now, and the threat to Florida is passing. But, there is still potential for a storm to develop based on climatology. Florida weather remains a negative for prices for now. Florida has had good weather so far this year with showers most days and warm temperatures. This week and this weekend should see mostly dry weather. Early harvest is continuing. Trends are mixed on the charts. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures. Dry weather is seen through this weekend for Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry weather, but showers are possible about Thursday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today and that total deliveries for the month are 2 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 171.00, 167.00, and 166.00 January, with resistance at 176.00, 179.00, and 184.00 January.

11/08 03:52p CST DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – Nov 8
In gallons. Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC).
2010-2011
Oct 29 Oct 22 Year Ago
MOVEMENT
Retail 182,523 167,332 205,588
Institutional 314,787 354,752 323,022
Bulk 1,432,842 1,749,618 2,172,491
Total 1,930,152 2,271,702 2,701,101
Cumulative 8,416,524 6,486,372 11,297,872
IMPORTS
Foreign 415,527 2,042,512 0
Cumulative 2,474,109 2,058,582 396,309
RECEIPTS
Domestic 116,074 0 0
PACK
Retail 148,081 179,263 255,654
Institutional 276,275 283,608 401,360
Bulk 508,457 727,487 570,300
Less Reprocessed 873,391 1,126,597 1,187,939
Net 59,420 63,761 39,375
Cumulative 190,421 131,001 108,034
Inventory 46,003,541 47,351,910 84,730,254

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday, with speculators seen on both sides of the market. There was no real news for Coffee or about MF Global, but traders continued to worry about the European situation, and now about Italy more than anywhere else. Loss reports from Central America are coming in from the rains in recent weeks, but it is mostly dry there now. The potential for big crops in Vietnam and Brazil later on keep many traders bearish about prices next year. Drier weather is forecast for Brazil this week, and dryness now would hurt flowering and cherry formation. Drier weather is also reported in Vietnam, which is good for harvest. Futures still have to deal with a tight supply situation for the short term, and the possibility of less than expected Arabica Coffee produced over the next year. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong. Central America and Colombia are offering to sell new crop with high differentials.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.300 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 192.87 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil coffee exports were 3.09 million bags in October, down 11.5% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 228.00, 225.00, and 220.00 December, and resistance is at 237.00, 241.00, and 243.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1800, 1790, and 1760 January, and resistance is at 1900, 1915, and 1930 January. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 318.00, 316.00, and 313.00 December, and resistance is at 333.00, 335.00, and 340.00 December.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher yesterday on doubts about the European crisis resolution and the MF Global situation. It was another light volume session. Speculators appeared to be the best sellers, but massive liquidation trading did not appear as the various parties involved worked to find a resolution to the MF Global problems. Supply side fundamentals for Sugar remain weak. India is still offering and expects to sell more as the country tries to work off surplus production and stocks. There were some flooding rains in Thailand last week that could have damaged Sugarcane and other crops. Reports are that losses are minor and most of the problems will be due to delayed crushing and deliveries rather than to crop losses. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world as reasons to keep the selling pressure on. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon, and Europe is said to have very good crops this year.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions or light showers are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal. China Sugar production was 214,000 tons, up 30% from last year. Calendar year to date is now 8.39 million tons, up 4.3% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2540, 2520, and 2480 March, and resistance is at 2610, 2630, and 2690 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 649.00, 646.00, and 643.00 March, and resistance is at 662.00, 667.00, and 686.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London yesterday on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation. Talk of oversupply in the market for Cocoa still are keeping prices down overall, but seems to have run out as a market force as arrivals from farmers have been slow. There is still no real reason to buy for now, but next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.
Overnight News: Widely scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.645 million bags. Ivory Coast arrivals are now estimated at 150,609 tons, from 192,856 tons last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2620, 2610, and 2580 December, with resistance at 2740, 2770, and 2790 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1650, 1630, and 1600 December, with resistance at 1690, 1720, and 1750 December.

Questions Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322