WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed higher again yesterday on ideas that less and less high quality Wheat is available here in the US. Rains have hurt yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas on top of the poor Hard Red Winter harvest. It remains very dry in the southern Great Plains and planting could soon be impacted. Demand is not bad for Wheat. Wheat finding its way into feed rations in an increasing way. The current Corn weather and the prices imply that these trends will continue. Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue for the week, and more rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops. Crops in the Northern Plains and into Canada should be in better condition, and showers remain in the forecasts in both areas. However, yield reports do not appear strong for Spring Wheat so far. Russian grains and Wheat prices are turning stronger amid a very active export pace and this will take some of the price pressure off the US futures and cash markets. Reports from Europe indicate that Germany has lost some production this year due to excessive rains in the last several weeks. The rains have hurt yields and quality. Charts show that the trends are turning up after the price action last week.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but central areas could see some showers and northern areas could see mostly dry conditions or light showers. Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the south, but near normal in the north. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 805 and 840 September. Support is at 748, 739, and 733 September, with resistance at 767, 772, and 781 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 852 September. Support is at 834, 819, and 791 September, with resistance at 851, 868, and 879 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1036 September. Support is at 938, 932, and 923 September, and resistance is at 958, 970, and 976 September.

RICE
General Comments: Prices were little changed yesterday. Futures failed to hold gains seen in the overnight trading, but did not reverse lower. The market appears caught between some improvement in crop ratings and on harvest progress on one side and stronger world prices on the other. Yield reports have been strong considering the weather, but cash prices have held even with the harvest in the domestic markets. Asian prices have been strong as Thailand implements a new support program for farmers that will pay them much higher prices and as Rice offers inside Vietnam become increasingly hard to find. Texas and Louisiana are in harvest, with good yields being reported in both states. Cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas. New crop bids have also been steady. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady to firm. Futures remain well above cash prices. Trends are generally up on the charts, but turned mixed for the short term with the price action last week.
Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas off and on this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1680, 1675, and 1669 September, and resistance is at 1720, 1729, and 1736 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Aug 24
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates.
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 21.48 14.06 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 21.19 14.38 0.00
Brokens 15.20 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher on crop production concerns. The Pro Farmer crop tour continued yesterday and concentrated on Nebraska and Indiana and eastern Illinois. Nebraska crops were said to be very average. Crop in Indiana and Illinois showed much more variable conditions and overall production potentials appeared below average. More damage and bigger crop losses are expected as the tours move to Illinois and Iowa today. There is still talk of yield loss due to the rapid progress of the crop. Corn losses are certain this year from the hot and dry weather seen in July and the poor Spring weather that hurt planting. Forecasts call for near normal temperatures and some beneficial precipitation for most areas over the next week. Many analysts continue to drop Corn yield potential in response to the lower USDA ratings released Monday night. Oats are being harvested, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress. However, condition ratings are still down.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 771 September. Support is at 722, 715, and 708 September, and resistance is at 732, 744, and 746 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 365 and 418 September. Support is at 355, 347, and 343 September, and resistance is at 365, 368, and 369 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on production concerns. Overall Midwest weather is mixed for Soybeans development and production potential. Some big rains were reported in northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana yesterday. However, most of the region missed out on any meaningful precipitation at all, so there are still problems out there. Weather forecasts still offer hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest with temperatures closer to normal and some showers later this week, but there is still no soaking rain for the entire region. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour moved through Nebraska and Indiana and eastern Illinois yesterday. Pod counts were highly variable, but mostly appeared to be a little below average and below year ago levels, especially in eastern areas. USDA lowered its crop ratings in its weekly updates, and some analysts are now lowering yield and production estimates in response to the USDA reports and the tour results. Soybeans have had better weather in August than Corn got in July, but tour participants on both sections noted the need for more rain. Charts show that trends are up after the price action yesterday.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1367, 1359, and 1351 September, and resistance is at 1392, 1405, and 1406 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 365.00, 358.00, and 356.00 September, and resistance is at 370.00, 374.00, and 377.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5540, 5490, and 5460 September, with resistance at 5610, 5640, and 5740 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on Chicago and on reports of good processor buying. Processors were buying on much improved crush margins. Speculators were the best traders on both sides of the market. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Some selling was seen as traders anticipate a big harvest soon and as export demand seems slow. Cash movement by farmers is reported slow this week as the farmers are with the new crop harvest and not interested in selling. Most crops appear to be in good condition. Palm Oil was lower today macroeconomic moves. Strong demand should provide overall support. Markets will not trade much next week as Malaysia will be in holidays.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 590.00 November. Support is at 557.00, 553.00, and 551.00 November, with resistance at 565.00, 570.00, and 574.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2990, 2960, and 2895 November, with resistance at 3085, 3090, and 3140 November.

StatsCan Production Estimates in Thousand Tons:
Table: July 31 estimates of production of principal field crops
________________________________________________________________________
Crop 2009 2010 July 2009 to 2010 to
(final) (final) 2011(p) 2010 July 2011
________________________________________________________________________
thousands thousands thousands
of tonnes of tonnes of tonnes % change % change

———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total wheat 26 848 23 167 24 076 -13.7 3.9
Spring
wheat 18 452 17 485 17 365 -5.2 -0.7
Durum
wheat 5 400 3 025 3 749 -44.0 23.9
Winter
wheat 2 996 2 657 2 962 -11.3 11.5
Canola 12 417 11 866 13 193 -4.4 11.2
Grain corn 9 561 11 715 9 983 22.5 -14.8
Barley 9 517 7 605 8 274 -20.1 8.8
Soybeans 3 507 4 345 3 862 23.9 -11.1
Oats 2 906 2 298 2 886 -20.9 25.6
Flaxseed 930 423 365 -54.5 -13.7
________________________________________________________________________
preliminary

Midwest Weather: Showers today, then mostly dry. Temperatures will average near normal.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

Subscribe to receive Weekly Newsletters via Email