COTTON
General Comments: Futures closed lower after a quiet session. Traders were disappointed in the price action and are now talking about further moves lower in liquidation trading. Weather overall remains a supportive factor, and not just because of crop losses in Texas. Chinese and Pakistani growing areas have hurt by rains, and it was hot this year in Uzbekistan. Chart trends still show a neutral bias. Demand remains soft. Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months. Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major Texas growing areas for the next week. It is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas. No relief from the drought appears likely and crop losses in the state should be significant this year. Hurricane Irene could impact the Atlantic Coast and perhaps bring some bring rains inland to growing areas in the Southeast later in the week.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but a few showers are possible. Southeast coastal areas could get big rains and winds later in the week or this weekend from Hurricane Irene. Temperatures will average above to much above normal. Texas will be mostly dry, but some showers are possible in the Panhandle this weekend. Temperatures will average above to much above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 102.81 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.015 million bales, from 0.014 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 104.00, 101.00, and 100.00 October, with resistance of 110.00, 112.00, and 116.00 October.

DJ ICE Cotton Speculation And Hedging Report – Aug 22
For Aug 19 long and short positions in contracts.
SPECULATION LONG ACCTS PCT SHORT ACCTS PCT
Total 63,018 1,226 43.7 43,028 1,068 29.8
HEDGING
Total 81,333 276 56.3 101,323 257 70.2
GRAND TOTAL: 144,351 1,502 100.0 144,351 1,325 100.0

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower as traders were concerned with Hurricane Irene. It could bring some significant rains and winds to the state, but our best forecast call for the state to get just a glancing blow as the main system will stay to the east and in the ocean. Charts show that trends are turning down as the storm moves past the state. Florida for now remains mostly warm and is getting scattered showers. Brazil is seeing moderate temperatures and mostly dry conditions for now.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms. A tropical hurricane could hit the state later this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 168.00 and 162.00 September. Support is at 170.00, 164.00, and 159.00 September, with resistance at 174.00, 177.00, and 179.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher all day as Coffee futures appeared to mirror activity in the stock and other commodities markets. Speculators were the best players on both sides of the market, and there was little in the way of news to support the move. Industry and origin appeared to be quiet. Brazil is not selling much, and Central America and Colombia can only sell new crop as the old crop appears sold out. However, industry is said to be covered for now. Weather in Brazil is good, but other parts of Latin America could use improved weather. It was too dry in Central America at flowering time and reports of too much rain in Colombia. Warm temperatures are expected for much of the week in Brazil. A tropical system brought some big rains to southern Mexico and northern Central America over the weekend. Chart trends remain up in London and turned up last week in New York and Sao Paulo.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.474 million bags. ICE said that deliveries were 4 contracts today and now total 4 contracts for the month. The ICO composite price is now 223.05 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry weather in the north and showers in the south. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week, but cooler this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 278.00 December. Support is at 263.00, 257.00, and 252.00 December, and resistance is at 273.00, 277.00, and 281.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2560 November. Support is at 2350, 2280, and 2230 November, and resistance is at 2420, 2440, and 2460 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 362.00, 372.00, and 408.00 December. Support is at 347.00, 338.00, and 335.00 December, and resistance is at 356.00, 360.00, and 367.00 December.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in New York and in London yesterday, with buyers still more interested in Brazil crop losses than anything else. More ideas that the crop there might get smaller provided support. Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong. China sold all the Sugar at offer at its auction this week, and there is talk that the country will need to import more to keep prices under some form of control. Prices there are very high and supplies are thin in the domestic market. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Chart trends turned up with the price action last week.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 3310 October. Support is at 3060, 2950, and 2930 October, and resistance is at 3140, 3170, and 3200 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 822.00 and 883.00 October. Support is at 797.00, 775.00, and 758.00 October, and resistance is at 811.00, 816.00, and 821.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures were sharply higher in New York and in London on what appeared to be fund buying related to an apparent breakout to the upside on the charts. Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less. Trends are trying to turn up on the charts. For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally. Next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year..
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.979 million bags. ICE said that Cocoa deliveries are 0 contracts today and now total 2 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3370 and 3600 December. Support is at 3090, 3050, and 2950 December, with resistance at 3145, 3180, and 3240 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2020 and 2120 December. Support is at 1920, 1890, and 1855 December, with resistance at 1975, 1990, and 2005 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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