WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed higher Friday as traders reacted to lower than expected Informa production estimates and continued poor weather in the US Great Plains. Fears that Russia was taking all the export business helped the bears. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained all that much in areas of the central and southern Great Plains. Warm and dry weather is featured there again this week. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas was hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains in the north, but harvest conditions now are good. Yield reports have been disappointing. Wheat is still finding its way into feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. The current Corn prices imply that these trends will continue. Charts show that the trends are down.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. It should be very warm this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions, and turn very warm this weekend. Temperatures will average near normal to above normal this week and much above normal this weekend. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat. Informa estimated US Hard Red Spring production at 444 million búshels.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 632, 615, and 608 December, with resistance at 651, 662, and 667 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 720, 715, and 698 December, with resistance at 737, 755, and 760 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 820, 815, and 802 December, and resistance is at 853, 856, and 860 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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WHEAT – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 508,587
: Positions
: 55,966 158,172 179,533 16,486 34,857 56,423 81,331 54,105 15,286 28,765 73,555
: Changes from: September 13, 2011
: 9,026 -7,903 -3,591 507 2,351 -251 13,508 2,489 -405 -1,226 5,754
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 11.0 31.1 35.3 3.2 6.9 11.1 16.0 10.6 3.0 5.7 14.5
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 411
: 76 91 20 8 24 49 76 59 65 80 114
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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WHEAT – KANSAS CITY BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 163,796
: Positions
: 27,746 93,523 24,372 0 2,114 52,588 9,121 16,717 9,635 5,624 10,436
: Changes from: September 13, 2011
: -378 -6,037 -113 0 167 2,930 4,773 1,280 -1,569 253 2,209
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 16.9 57.1 14.9 0.0 1.3 32.1 5.6 10.2 5.9 3.4 6.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 182
: 43 64 15 0 8 34 15 24 23 15 25
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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WHEAT – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 43,140
: Positions
: 12,866 24,754 529 0 167 8,872 755 1,415 2,461 520 4,553
: Changes from: September 13, 2011
: 1,099 -1,066 -149 0 -104 -626 373 157 -208 -200 296
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 29.8 57.4 1.2 0.0 0.4 20.6 1.8 3.3 5.7 1.2 10.6
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 58
: 23 17 . 0 . 8 . 4 8 5 14
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RICE
General Comments: Prices were lower again Friday on speculative selling tied to weakness in outside markets and fears about the European situation. Cold weather remains and issue for farmers here and is expected to return this weekend. The weather was cool last week enough to hurt Rice progress and yield potential, at least in Arkansas and Missouri, and might get cool enough again. The harvest continues to move north, although slowly. Initial yield reports are mixed in Arkansas, but overall the reports are not showing any big disasters. Milling yields have not been good as harvest progresses. US cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear weak. Futures remain above cash prices, but cash prices are starting to move a little higher as the harvest progresses and futures have fallen sharply. Japan has now found Rice exceeding acceptable radiation levels and will now require increased testing on crops before it can be sold to the public.
Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas late this weekend, but mostly dry. Temperatures will average below normal. Syria has tendered to buy 44,000 tons of White Rice. Iraq has bought 30,000 tons of Indian Rice. Philippines said it could buy 500,000 tons of Rice in 2012. It said that the third quarter Rice harvest could be 22% higher than last year and that total production could exceed the forecast 17.3 million tons for 2011.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1640, 1630, and 1620 November, and resistance is at 1676, 1680, and 1685 November.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 18,711
: Positions
: 4,309 13,061 3,330 0 35 4,254 1,187 0 1,045 2,231 1,069
: Changes from: September 13, 2011
: 395 -514 -74 0 35 -144 -59 0 -467 71 -109
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 23.0 69.8 17.8 0.0 0.2 22.7 6.3 0.0 5.6 11.9 5.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 90
: 20 19 9 0 . 21 5 0 14 16 12
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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed sharply lower again Friday on big speculative liquidation trading tied to fears of a world economic collapse. Expectations of harvest progress helped keep prices down. Some showers and cool temperatures were seen over the weekend in areas east of the Mississippi and the precipitation could slow harvest progress. Drier conditions were seen in western areas, and harvest should have been more active. Some harvest has been reported in parts of Iowa and Illinois, and yield reports have been very good. These crops appear to have been planted and more fully developed by the time the bad weather hit. Ideas are that yields can decline as harvest progresses. The cash market is steady, and cash market buyers have been easier to find with current prices, but demand overall does not appear that strong. Basis levels are steady in the country.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico. Informa estimated US Corn production at 12.620 billion bushels.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 618 December. Support is at 612, 606, and 593 December, and resistance is at 663, 666, and 669 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 325 and 322 December. Support is at 329, 327, and 326 September, and resistance is at 333, 334, and 338 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,892,130
: Positions
: 330,832 738,923 287,508 70,054 120,136 281,166 31,189 183,139 85,074 48,426 419,652
: Changes from: September 13, 2011
: 28,069 -18,839 -537 8,456 5,384 -50,777 -2,421 -872 599 -8,780 8,449
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 17.5 39.1 15.2 3.7 6.3 14.9 1.6 9.7 4.5 2.6 22.2
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 882
: 238 368 17 11 26 119 34 78 154 132 214
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 15,668
: Positions
: 6,502 11,132 2,009 0 0 2,142 1,220 0 379 144 1,695
: Changes from: September 13, 2011
: 149 -395 -100 0 0 -18 270 0 -169 -97 109
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 41.5 71.1 12.8 0.0 0.0 13.7 7.8 0.0 2.4 0.9 10.8
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 42
: 11 12 4 0 0 9 6 0 6 . 6
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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CBT ETHANOL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 29,000 U.S. GALLONS)
CFTC Code #025601 Open Interest is 9,868
: Positions
: 7,517 6,841 0 732 90 507 71 129 303 864 736
: Changes from: September 13, 2011
: -491 -424 -1 -333 -15 -236 55 -30 -21 -28 100
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 76.2 69.3 0.0 7.4 0.9 5.1 0.7 1.3 3.1 8.8 7.5
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 34
: 19 21 0 . . . . . . . .
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SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower Friday on ideas of higher than expected yields and fears of a world economic collapse. Ideas of weak demand and on the European and Greek economic issues continued to hurt price action. It was a wet and cool weekend in ears east of the Mississippi River and little harvest progress was made. Ares to the west ere warmer and dry, and some good progress was possible. Initial yield reports have been highly mixed, but in general are said to be better than expected. Harvest should begin to expand this week. US processor demand is not good for now, and export demand appears soft. Basis levels are steady. Charts show that trends are mostly down for the short term.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. China bought 1126,000 tons of US Soybeans overnight.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1250, 1238, and 1206 November, and resistance is at 1267, 1282, and 1318 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 322.00, 319.00, and 309.00 October, and resistance is at 330.00, 334.00, and 337.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 5225, 5170, and 5130 October, with resistance at 5380, 5415, and 5475 October.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 812,514
: Positions
: 167,821 379,092 135,527 22,298 44,124 128,076 12,285 68,424 27,405 26,459 178,099
: Changes from: September 13, 2011
: 28,979 -28,460 335 3,407 2,976 -41,989 901 -2,493 -6,551 -5,288 1,526
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 20.7 46.7 16.7 2.7 5.4 15.8 1.5 8.4 3.4 3.3 21.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 591
: 102 182 20 7 24 106 29 73 104 116 174
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 60,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 334,341
: Positions
: 95,172 192,676 64,873 1,386 13,303 53,707 20,272 19,995 16,533 20,270 40,294
: Changes from: September 13, 2011
: 5,455 -8,277 2,672 -2,420 -808 -5,665 7,955 -3,465 -335 -1,039 922
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 28.5 57.6 19.4 0.4 4.0 16.1 6.1 6.0 4.9 6.1 12.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 256
: 55 61 16 . 13 53 25 25 36 38 56
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 20, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 100 TONS)
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 199,938
: Positions
: 66,105 112,053 15,966 5,675 917 45,483 19,738 11,302 6,417 6,625 18,902
: Changes from: September 13, 2011
: 9,931 -20,531 -350 -1,282 -59 -17,904 5,993 -2,804 398 -308 -252
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 33.1 56.0 8.0 2.8 0.5 22.7 9.9 5.7 3.2 3.3 9.5
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 190
: 58 59 11 . 6 39 20 15 24 15 29
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CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with Chicago and in reaction to increased selling from producers and elevators. Exporters and processors were the best buyers. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Some selling was seen as export demand seems slow. Cash movement by farmers was reported moderate last week as the farmers are with the new crop harvest. Most crops appear to be in good condition as harvest progresses, and yields are reported to be very good. Harvest is ahead of normal. Palm Oil was lower today on outside markets. SGS said that exports so far this month are 1.204 million tons, from 1.365 million last month. ITS estimated exports so far at 1.199 million tons, from 1.361 million last month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 524.00, 511.00, and 505.00 November, with resistance at 544.00, 546.00, and 551.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2950, 2940, and 2890 December, with resistance at 3000, 3015, and 3025 December.
DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Weekly Crush
Winnipeg (Dow Jones) – The Canadian Oilseed Processors
Association reported the Canadian oilseed crush for the week
ended September 21, 2011, as follows:
Figures are in metric tons. R-denotes revision.
Cumulative Cumulative
Week 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11
Ended Canola (Aug/Jul) Sybns (Aug/Jul)
Sep 21 131,994 793,996 801,729 25,205 175,794 184,452
Sep 14 115,184 662,002 696,141 22,390 150,589 161,238
Sep 07 111,669 546,818 587,415 22,472 128,199 132,011
Aug 31 73,560 435,149 469,128 19,611 105,727 102,732
Aug 24 86,039 361,589 360,761 23,160 86,116 84,318
Crush Capacity Utilization
This Week Year-to-Date Year Ago
Canola 90.0% 72.4% 73.8%
Soybeans 56.3% 52.5% 55.1%
Midwest Weather: Chances for showers through Wednesday, then mostly dry. Temperatures will average below normal through Wednesday, then near to below normal. Warm and dry west of the Mississippi all week.
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