DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 9
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep. 12, 2011 125 Aug 31, 2011
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep. 12, 2011 299 Sep 07, 2011
ROUGH RICE September Sep. 12, 2011 43 Sep 08, 2011
SOYBEAN September Sep. 12, 2011 635 Sep 08, 2011
WHEAT September Sep. 12, 2011 49 Sep 02, 2011
MINI-SIZED WHEAT September Sep. 12, 2011 1 Aug 31, 2011
DJ KCBT Wheat Delivery Intentions Breakdown – Sep 9
Intentions Reintentions
Intention Date: Sep 9, 2011 KC 0 0
Delivery Date: Sep 12, 2011 Hutchinson 0 2
Oldest long date: Sep 6, 2011 Salina/Abilene 9 38
Wichita 0 0
Totals 9 40
MGEX Spring Wheat Deliveries for Sept 9
The Minneapolis Grain Exchange reported the following deliveries
against SEPT spring wheat futures. (in contracts)
OLDEST LONG DATE FOR—SPRING WHEAT FUTURES: 8/29/11
DELIVERED DULUTH/SUPERIOR 0
TOTAL ORIGINAL DELIVERY: 0
TOTAL RE-DELIVERY: 0
Notes: REG=House Account. SEG=Customer Account, RDEL=Re-delivery,
ORIG=Original delivery, N/A=not available.
DJ SURVEY: USDA September Corn, Soybean Production Report
The following are analysts’ estimates in billions of bushels for 2011 U.S. corn
and soybean production based on conditions as of September 1, as compiled by
Dow Jones Newswires.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production
at 8:30 a.m. EDT Monday. Parentheses denote the number ofestimates in that
average and range.
August 2010
Average Range USDA Production
Corn (24) 12.505 11.913-12.913 12.914 12.447
Soybeans (24) 3.025 2.924-3.085 3.056 3.329
Yield August 2010
Average Range USDA Yield
Corn (24) 148.8 145.0-153.0 153.0 152.8
Soybeans (24) 41.0 40.0-41.8 41.4 43.5
Corn Corn Soy Soy
Production Yield Production Yield
ABN Amro 12.660 150.0 3.025 41.0
ADM Inv Services 12.432 148.0 2.985 40.5
AgriSource 12.475 148.0 3.045 41.5
Agrivisor 12.717 150.7 3.049 41.3
Allendale 12.466 147.7 3.007 40.7
Citigroup 12.616 150.0 3.030 40.8
Cropcast/MDA 11.913 145.2 2.924 40.3
Doane 12.468 148.5 3.000 41.0
Farm Futures 12.264 146.0 3.031 41.1
INTL FCStone 12.350 146.3 3.030 41.05
Global Comm Analytics 12.517 148.3 3.022 41.0
*Informa 12.711 151.0 3.061 41.5
Jefferies Bache 12.591 149.2 3.048 41.3
Kropf and Love 12.585 150.0 3.005 41.0
Linn Group 12.391 149.1 2.997 41.0
Macquarie Bank 12.499 148.8 3.085 41.8
North Am Risk Mgmt 12.550 148.9 3.022 40.9
Newedge 12.521 148.4 3.035 41.1
PFG Best 12.600 151.5 3.010 40.9
Prime Ag 12.913 153.0 3.056 41.4
Pro Farmer 12.484 147.9 3.083 41.8
Risk Mgmt Comm 12.238 145.0 2.972 40.0
RJ O’Brien 12.500 148.1 3.019 40.9
U.S. Commodities 12.652 150.8 3.048 41.3
*From Trade Sources
DJ SURVEY: US Grain, Soybean Carryout
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–The following are analysts’ estimates in billions of
bushels for U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks for 2010-11 and 2011-12, as
compiled by Dow Jones Newswires. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is
scheduled to release updated supply and demand estimates at 8:30 a.m. EDT Monday.
Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range.
2010-11
Aug 2009-10
Average Range USDA USDA
Corn (12) 0.974 0.929-1.080 0.940 1.708
Soybeans (12) 0.232 0.223-0.240 0.230 0.151
Corn Soybeans
ABN Amro 1.080 0.230
ADM Investor Services 1.005 0.236
Allendale 0.929 0.232
Citigroup 0.967 0.230
Doane Advisory Services 0.955 0.230
Farm Futures 0.933 0.225
Jefferies Bache 0.965 0.230
Macquarie Bank 0.982 0.234
Newedge 0.940 0.230
North America Risk Mgmt 0.940 0.240
RJ O’Brien 0.952 0.240
U.S. Commodities 1.045 0.223
2011-12
Aug
Average Range USDA
Corn (19) 0.636 0.497-0.757 0.714
Soybeans (19) 0.152 0.110-0.188 0.155
Wheat (17) 0.667 0.628-0.705 0.671
Corn Soybeans Wheat
ABN Amro 0.725 0.165 0.650
ADM Investor Services 0.702 0.165 0.639
AgriSource 0.580 0.165 0.650
AgriVisor 0.747 0.174 0.695
Allendale 0.570 0.124 0.663
Citigroup 0.593 0.140 0.705
Doane Advisory Services 0.553 0.150 0.651
Farm Futures 0.500 0.130 0.673
Global Commodity Analytics 0.497 0.144 0.631
Jefferies Bache 0.526 0.150 0.651
Kropf & Love 0.700 0.150 0.669
Macquarie Bank 0.676 0.188 0.628
Newedge 0.625 0.165 0.694
North America Risk Management 0.650 0.157 0.701
PFG Best 0.660 0.140 0.665
Prime Ag 0.714 0.160 0.671
RJ O’Brien 0.636 0.146 0.703
Risk Management Commodities 0.675 0.110 n/a
U.S. Commodities 0.757 0.171 n/a
DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Sep 9
For the week ended Sep 1, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The 2011-12 marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
2011-12 marketing year for rice and cotton began Aug 1. The 2011-12
marketing year for soymeal and soyoil will begin Oct 1.
For corn, soybeans and sorghum, “this year” is the 2011-2012
marketing year, which began Sep 1, while “last year” is 2010-2011.
Source: USDA
-a: Includes new sales activity for Aug 26-Sep 1 which
resulted in a net increase of 820.6 thousand metric tons. Also includes
2795.7 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2010-2011.
-b: Includes new sales activity for Aug 26-Sep 1 which
resulted in a net increase of 444.9 thousand metric tons. Also includes
2281.9 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2010-2011.
-c: Includes new sales activity for week Aug 26-Sep 1 which
resulted in a net decrease of -6.8 thousand metric tons. Also includes
172.6 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2010-2011.
wk’s net change total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 512.2 0.0 12714.7 15037.3 4971.6 63.6
corn 3616.3-a 50.0 13306.5 15388.3 13170.5 591.3
soybeans 2726.8-b 0.0 14326.0 17786.5 14283.6 0.0
soymeal -24.5 172.5 7797.8 9741.0 681.8 872.2
soyoil 0.0 5.9 1368.1 1480.5 137.0 23.2
upland cotton 43.7 2.0 6416.0 6851.8 5843.3 142.9
pima cotton 1.0 0.0 369.6 181.5 363.6 0.9
sorghum 165.8-c 0.0 355.6 869.4 346.7 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 80.6 60.7 50.5 0.0
rice 116.4 0.0 700.1 940.8 414.0 0.3
WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower yesterday in response to selling seen in most markets. The lower US Dollar was negative and news that India would sell 2.0 million tons of Wheat into export markets was also negative. Many traders were waiting for President Obama to speak last night and did not trade, so volumes were very light. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained in areas of the central and southern Great Plains continue, and these ideas supported buying after the lower start. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas was hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains in the north. Wheat is still finding its way into feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. The current Corn prices imply that these trends will continue. Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue for the next week, and more rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops. Charts show that the trends are down for at least the short term.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions or light showers are expected in the southern Great Plains, and northern areas could see mostly dry conditions or light showers. Temperatures should average near normal in the south, but near to below normal in the north. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions or light showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat. India asid it will permit exports of 2.0 million tons of Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 730 and 687 December. Support is at 731, 720, and 708 December, with resistance at 746, 750, and 758 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 843, 836, and 821 December, with resistance at 854, 878, and 880 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 893 and 864 December. Support is at 897, 885, and 878 December, and resistance is at 922, 950, and 957 December.
RICE
General Comments: Prices were at or near limit down in early trading on news that India will allow unlimited exports of up to 2.0 million tons of Rice, but then recovered as US growing conditions and yields remain bad. Disappointing yields were heard in Texas and in Arkansas yesterday. The harvest continues to move north, although many producers near the Gulf Coast still have quite a bit of second crop Rice to harvest. Initial yield reports are poor in Arkansas. Yield reports are getting worse along the Gulf Coast as farmers move to later planted Rice. Milling yields have not been good as harvest progresses. Asian prices have been mixed so far this week. US cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas. New crop bids have also been steady. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady to firm. Futures remain well above cash prices. We think production could be near 184.6 million cwt.
Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas off and on through this weekend, but mostly dry. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1737 and 1670 November. Support is at 1765, 1751, and 1720 November, and resistance is at 1822, 1836, and 1842 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower yesterday on selling seen in most markets and on a stronger US Dollar. The cash market remains soft, and cash market buyers have been hard to find with current prices. There is still talk of more yield loss due to the rapid progress of the crop, but initial reports from southern parts of the Midwest appear to be higher than expected. Any rains now will probably be too late to help Corn all that much. Corn losses are certain this year from the hot and dry weather seen in July and the poor Spring weather that hurt planting. However, the trade has now come out with some very low estimates that do not appear too likely to come to pass. We think production could be near 12.714 billion bushels. End users are increasingly looking to Wheat or other substitute grains in place of Corn due to the high price of Corn. The export sales pace has also been behind last year. Basis levels are weak in the country as the elevators prepare for the harvest. Oats are being harvested, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico. Unknown destinations bought 127,506 tons of US Corn overnight. bought 161,900 tons of US Corn overnight.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 717 and 690 December. Support is at 725, 706, and 698 December, and resistance is at 738, 744, and 747 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 343 and 325 December. Support is at 349, 346, and 342 September, and resistance is at 359, 361, and 366 December.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower yesterday on selling seen in most markets and on weak cash markets. Overall Midwest weather is mixed for Soybeans development and production potential. Weather forecasts still offer more hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest with temperatures now below normal and some showers this weekend. Farmers report that rains are needed very soon to avoid any more yield loss. It is still pod setting and pod filling time, and moisture needs are high. Soybeans have had better weather in August than Corn got in July, but still need additional rains. Demand is not strong at this time for US Soybeans, and basis levels are dropping. We think production could be near 3.025 billion bushels. Charts show that trends are turning down for the short term.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady to weak at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. China cancelled purchases of 240,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1402 and 1370 November. Support is at 1410, 1408, and 1405 November, and resistance is at 1426, 1435, and 1448 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 366.00 and 356.00 October. Support is at 367.00, 360.00, and 354.00 October, and resistance is at 372.00, 375.00, and 382.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5675 and 5575 October. Support is at 5770, 5680, and 5660 October, with resistance at 5840, 5880, and 5935 October.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on weakness in US Soybeans. Ideas of increased deliveries from farmers were also negative and hurt November on spreads. Producers and elevators were the best buyers. There is some talk of small yields in parts of Manitoba, but overall production ideas are big for the Prairies despite the variable yield results so far in Manitoba. Saskatchewan is moving fast on its harvest and is ahead of average now. Reports of dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Some selling was seen as export demand seems slow. Cash movement by farmers is reported slow this week as the farmers are with the new crop harvest and not interested in selling. Most crops appear to be in good condition. Palm Oil was higher today on short covering before the weekend. Ideas it was too cheap to Soybean Oil provided some support. Workers were not so active during the month, but exports are only expected to be flat from last month as demand holds stable.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 564.00 and 554.00 November. Support is at 566.00, 560.00, and 557.00 November, with resistance at 574.00, 576.00, and 580.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3015, 2990, and 2960 November, with resistance at 3070, 3090, and 3140 November.
Midwest Weather: Mostly dry, but there will be periods of showers and storms over the weekend. Temperatures will average near normal.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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