COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher Friday on rumors of new Chinese buying. China has said that it has started to buy Corn and Soybeans to rebuild state reserves, and there are ideas it is doing the same in Cotton. There was talk that other mills in other countries are buying now as well. There has been a lot of commercial interest seen in owning Cotton on the commercial side below 100.00 basis futures, but some of this demand might disappear. Chart trends are mixed for the short term. Demand remains soft on the export side. India has had a lot of Cotton to offer, but recent floods make it hard for Pakistan to talk of exports and easy for mills there to talk of new imports from India down the road. So far, though, little actual demand has been reported.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but showers are possible tomorrow. Temperatures will average below normal. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average mostly near to below normal. The USDA average spot price is now 97.71 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.018 million bales, from 0.019 million yesterday. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today and that total deliveries are now 228 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 95.00, and 94.00 December, with resistance of 103.00, 105.00, and 107.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 11, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 257,149
: Positions
: 60,851 110,692 42,037 19,030 19,577 34,139 11,055 21,118 8,949 2,744 58,318
: Changes from: October 4, 2011
: -592 -1,022 -1,068 -24 3 133 -239 911 -122 -289 -728
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 23.7 43.0 16.3 7.4 7.6 13.3 4.3 8.2 3.5 1.1 22.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 238
: 38 45 20 14 24 61 20 34 48 24 53
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FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed higher again Friday on what appeared to be chart based buying. Florida weather remains a negative for prices. The weather is good and there is no other news around. Florida has had good weather so far this year with showers most days and warm temperatures. This week should see showers and storms as a tropical system brings lots of rain to parts of the state. Early harvest is getting underway. Trends are up on the charts. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures. Rain are seen again this week in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for rains much of the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal through Wednesday, then near to below normal..
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 176.00 and 191.00 November. Support is at 170.00, 165.00, and 160.00 November, with resistance at 175.00, 178.00, and 179.00 November.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 11, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 34,292
: Positions
: 11,835 23,723 3,604 410 164 8,187 1,183 460 341 159 6,998
: Changes from: October 4, 2011
: 292 945 41 0 158 187 -288 -248 -323 -104 402
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 34.5 69.2 10.5 1.2 0.5 23.9 3.4 1.3 1.0 0.5 20.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 88
: 24 23 9 . 4 21 6 . 16 5 16
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COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher again Friday on speculative buying tied to a change in chart trends to up. Futures held near the 240.00 NY December area much of the day due to November options expiration. The potential for big crops in Vietnam and Brazil later on keeps people wondering about upside potential, but trees are just starting to flower in Brazil and Vietnam has seen a lot of rain recently that could hurt cherries. Futures still have to deal with a tight supply situation for the short term, and the possibility of less than expected Arabica Coffee produced over the next year. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong. There has been some talk there that the Brazil production will not be as big as some of the huge production estimates floating around, which range as high as 60 million bags. Rains are falling now and flowering is now underway. Central America and Colombia are offering to sell new crop with high differentials. Good weather is reported in Mexico and parts of Central America, although some parts of Central America are now getting too much rain. Chart trends are trends are turning up.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.400 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 199.30 ct/lb. Brazil should see showers today, then drier conditions the rest of this week. Temperatures will average near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 247.00, 263.00, and 264.00 December. Support is at 236.00, 231.00, and 228.00 December, and resistance is at 246.00, 252.00, and 256.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1990, 1940, and 1910 November, and resistance is at 2020, 2030, and 2050 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 342.00 and 408.00 December. Support is at 327.00, 309.00, and 306.00 December, and resistance is at 335.00, 342.00, and 344.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 11, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 197,371
: Positions
: 53,722 72,800 28,972 7,844 10,036 17,828 13,869 25,799 1,217 6,469 53,857
: Changes from: October 4, 2011
: -418 -4,288 -258 -437 464 -625 2,344 513 135 1,108 1,079
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 27.2 36.9 14.7 4.0 5.1 9.0 7.0 13.1 0.6 3.3 27.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 335
: 87 93 22 11 19 55 43 53 39 49 78
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SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher again Friday on what appeared to be chart based buying. Sugar has seen new speculative buying as chart trends have turned up again for at least the short term. There was not a lot of news for Sugar traders Friday once again. India is still offering and expects to sell more as the country tries to work off surplus production and stocks. Thailand has a lot for export as well, and Brazil is expected to be a strong producer next year after a disappointing year this year. There were some flooding rains in Thailand last week that could have damaged Sugarcane and other crops. Damage reports might be heard this week. More rain is possible there soon. Pakistan said last week that it could import 400,000 tons of Sugar after recent flooding rains. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon and will help offset the smaller production in Brazil. Europe is said to have very good crops this year, and Russia could export for the first time in 12 years.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil after some showers today. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Mexico is opening a new Sugar import quota covering 150,000 tons through January.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2840 March. Support is at 2730, 2720, and 2630 March, and resistance is at 2840, 2860, and 2950 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 698.00, 693.00, and 685.00 December, and resistance is at 721.00, 724.00, and 730.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 11, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 663,313
: Positions
: 122,369 275,088 128,906 85,707 49,309 107,912 22,423 36,439 25,281 4,950 124,188
: Changes from: October 4, 2011
: -4,226 3,777 -460 1,827 1,188 3,525 1,498 14 834 -702 1,004
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 18.4 41.5 19.4 12.9 7.4 16.3 3.4 5.5 3.8 0.7 18.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 226
: 56 61 19 12 24 46 13 27 36 32 56
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COCOA
General Comments: Futures were mixed in New York and in London yesterday as early buying faded. A very strong European Grind report created the initial buying interest, but Cocoa is around so the buying met with some producer and speculative selling. Talk of oversupply in the market for Cocoa still are keeping prices down overall, but futures have made new contract lows and might have already priced in the increased supplies for now as there has been no real follow through to the downside. Trends are mixed for the short term on the charts. There is still no real reason to buy for now, but next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.835 million bags. Ghana raised its purchase price to farmers last Friday. Farmers in Ivory Coast have stopped delivering Cocoa and are demanding higher prices as well.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2620, 2610, and 2590 December, with resistance at 2690, 2710, and 2740 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1690, 1660, and 1630 December, with resistance at 1720, 1750, and 1760 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 11, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS)
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 236,446
: Positions
: 110,897 102,742 18,131 10,904 6,614 25,850 38,357 30,816 2,412 3,157 32,053
: Changes from: October 4, 2011
: 2,109 5,330 123 -546 760 -86 -1,699 -2,143 24 -306 4,462
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 46.9 43.5 7.7 4.6 2.8 10.9 16.2 13.0 1.0 1.3 13.6
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 191
: 38 40 15 8 12 31 53 25 17 17 23
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Questions Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
