Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 8/13/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downside correction. DBA crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). DBA appears to be heading for a systematically bearish signal, unless its existing 3-month downtrend reverses significantly.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 10 weeks on 8/13/14, reconfirming a downside correction.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell further below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 8/13/14, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 8/13/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Health Care stock sector ETF (XLV) absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/13/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Materials stock sector ETF (XLB) absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/13/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Energy stock sector ETF (XLE) Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 10 weeks on 8/13/14 and remains systematically neutral.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,946.72, up 0.67%) absolute price opened higher and rose further in the first two hours. Stocks peaked before noon and traded in a tight range the rest of the day. SPX closed above both the (true) open and the midpoint of the day’s high-low range. SPX also closed above its highs of the previous 8 trading days, thereby confirming the minor uptrend that started last Friday.
NYSE total volume rose 4% to a level 19% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
Although volume rose modestly on Wednesday, still it was low compared to average levels over the past 200-trading days. The 4% rise was not enough to suggest that the bulls are significantly less reluctant to risk buying stocks long.
Although price momentum turned upward last Friday, it still is lagging price itself, making a reversal of preexisting bearish divergences improbable. Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and failing price momentum is often followed by a down move for price. Short-term momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the SPX broke down to their lowest levels in more than 6 months on 8/7/14 , thereby confirming their preexisting downtrends. Both turned down on 7/7/14, after failing to match their highs of 6/10/14–despite higher highs for the S&P 500 Index on which these oscillators are based. Furthermore, these same momentum oscillators consistently have remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite much higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, both oscillators have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at +104, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the stock market has been ignoring for months.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory entered a Secondary Reaction to the downside in early August, as the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average made lower highs and lower lows for more than 3 weeks. Such a downside correction can last several months. Although not part of the Dow Theory, all 3 Dow-Jones Averages (Industrial, Transportation, and Utility) crossed below their 50-day SMAs on 7/31/14, thereby demonstrating price weakness by separate objective method that requires no subjective interpretation.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 8/13/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose to a 13-year closing price high on 7/23/14 and held its 50-day SMA during the recent minor pullback. The price 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 1/28/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) rose to its highest level in 8 months on 8/11/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. This RS ratio’s rising 50-day SMA crossed above the falling 200-day SMA on 8/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Absolute price is systematically neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2 years on 8/8/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 6 months on 7/29/14 but remains systematically neutral, with 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 7/28/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has turned weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 7/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has turned weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 8/5/14. UUP is currently systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA is rising up toward the 200-day SMA, such that a bullish crossover may be possible in weeks ahead if price rises further. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 8/13/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downside correction. DBA crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). DBA appears to be heading for a systematically bearish signal, unless its existing 3-month downtrend reverses significantly.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 4 months on 8/7/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downside correction. Price remains systematically neutral. Long term, USO has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 22.74 on 2/19/09. Support 35.62, 34.97, 34.00, 32.68, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price appears to be base building in neutral trading range since hitting a bottom at 114.46 on 12/31/13. GLD price has been crisscrossing its 50-day and 200-day SMAs this year, resulting in misleading signals, typical of range-bound market. Support: 119.42, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 11 months on 1/12/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 7/9/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks and fell below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 8/4/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Long term, SLV has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 17.75 on 4/27/13. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 10 weeks on 8/13/14, reconfirming a downside correction. The 50-200 SMA remains negative, with 50Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell further below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 8/13/14, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.63% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
2.84% , NUE , NUCOR
2.18% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
0.73% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.75% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
2.65% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
0.81% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
0.39% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.68% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
1.56% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
4.39% , MBI , MBIA
0.43% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
0.43% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
0.75% , VV , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.81% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
2.98% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
0.46% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.97% , MHFI.K , McGraw Hill Financial, Inc., MHFI.K
1.44% , MRK , MERCK & CO
0.20% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.57% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
0.43% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
0.92% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
0.42% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
0.82% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.01% , ASH , ASHLAND
0.59% , EIX , EDISON INTL
0.55% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
0.23% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
1.39% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.65% , MMM , 3M
0.56% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
0.42% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.58% , TIF , TIFFANY
-3.58% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-2.34% , CIEN.N , CIENA
-1.45% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.47% , KSS , KOHLS
-2.30% , DE , DEERE & CO
-1.09% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-1.60% , TJX , TJX
-1.16% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-0.86% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-0.92% , EBAY , EBAY
-0.68% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.64% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-1.27% , LLY , ELI LILLY
-0.26% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
-0.35% , SO , SOUTHERN
-2.20% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.17% , LM , LEGG MASON
-0.37% , WMB , WILLIAMS
-0.74% , KR , KROGER
-0.26% , LB , L Brands, LB
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.21% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.75% , Russia MV, RSX
1.56% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.54% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.45% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.44% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.39% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.33% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.24% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
1.22% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.21% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.20% , Germany Index, EWG
1.14% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.09% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.06% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.06% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.98% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.98% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.97% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.95% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.94% , India PS, PIN
0.91% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.90% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.89% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.87% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.85% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.85% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.84% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.83% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.83% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.83% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.82% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.82% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.80% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.80% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.78% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.78% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.77% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.77% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.75% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.75% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.75% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.74% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.73% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.72% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.72% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.71% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.71% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.71% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.70% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.70% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.69% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.69% , Australia Index, EWA
0.68% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.67% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.67% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.66% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.65% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.64% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.64% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.64% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.64% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.64% , Global 100, IOO
0.64% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.63% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.62% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.62% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.61% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.60% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.58% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.57% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.57% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.57% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.56% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.56% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.55% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.55% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.54% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.54% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.53% , Spain Index, EWP
0.53% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.50% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.50% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.49% , Water Resources, PHO
0.49% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.48% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.48% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.48% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.47% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.47% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.46% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.46% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.45% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.44% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.44% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.43% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.42% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.42% , Dividend International, PID
0.42% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.39% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.39% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.38% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.37% , France Index, EWQ
0.37% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.36% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.35% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.34% , Austria Index, EWO
0.34% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.33% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.32% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.32% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.29% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.29% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.29% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.28% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.26% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.26% , Italy Index, EWI
0.22% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.20% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.20% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.19% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.18% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.17% , Energy Global, IXC
0.17% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.13% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.12% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.09% , Networking, IGN
0.08% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.07% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.05% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.04% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.00% , Canada Index, EWC
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.05% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.06% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.08% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.13% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.27% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.68% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.68% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.86% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.45% , Brazil Index, EWZ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1991.39, high of 7/24/2014
1956.22, 50-day SMA
1952.86, low of 7/10/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1865.55, 200-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
