Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 15 months on 8/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish trend.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price rose above its closing price highs of the previous 14 months on 8/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish trend.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 8/15/14, suggesting a medium-term downtrend.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 9 weeks on 8/15/14, reconfirming a medium-term downtrend since 7/10/14. Longer term, SLV could be attempting to form a base, or bottom, since bottoming at 17.75 on 4/27/13.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 11 weeks on 8/15/14, reconfirming a medium-term downtrend.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 8/15/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ also rose above its highs of the previous 13 years 8/15/14 and remains systematically bullish.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,955.06, down 0.01%) absolute price opened higher on a gap and worked further upward in the first 64 minutes. Stocks reversed to the downside and were relatively deeply into the red just before noon. SPX recovered nearly all of its loss in the afternoon to close below the (true) open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and only slightly below Thursday’s close.
NYSE total volume rose 15% to a level 9% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
Although price momentum turned upward on Friday 8/8/14, it still is lagging price itself, making a reversal of preexisting bearish divergences improbable. Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and failing price momentum is often followed by a down move for price. Short-term momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the SPX broke down to their lowest levels in more than 6 months on 8/7/14 , thereby confirming their preexisting downtrends. Both turned down on 7/7/14, after failing to match their highs of 6/10/14–despite higher highs for the S&P 500 Index on which these oscillators are based. Furthermore, these same momentum oscillators consistently have remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite much higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, both oscillators have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at +210, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the stock market has been ignoring for months.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory entered a Secondary Reaction to the downside in early August, as the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average made lower highs and lower lows for more than 3 weeks. Such a downside correction can last several months. Although not part of the Dow Theory, all 3 Dow-Jones Averages (Industrial, Transportation, and Utility) crossed below their 50-day SMAs on 7/31/14, thereby demonstrating price weakness by separate objective method that requires no subjective interpretation.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 8/15/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ also rose above its highs of the previous 13 years 8/15/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) rose to its highest level in 8 months on 8/11/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. This RS ratio’s rising 50-day SMA crossed above the falling 200-day SMA on 8/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Absolute price is systematically neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2 years on 8/8/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 6 months on 7/29/14 but remains systematically neutral, with 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 7/28/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has turned weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 7/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has turned weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 8/5/14. UUP is currently systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA is rising up toward the 200-day SMA, such that a bullish crossover may be possible in weeks ahead if price rises further. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 8/14/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downside correction. DBA crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). DBA appears to be heading for a systematically bearish signal, unless its existing 3-month downtrend reverses significantly.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 5 months on 8/14/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downside correction. Price remains systematically neutral. Long term, USO has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 22.74 on 2/19/09. Support 35.62, 34.97, 34.00, 32.68, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price appears to be base building in neutral trading range since hitting a bottom at 114.46 on 12/31/13. GLD price has been crisscrossing its 50-day and 200-day SMAs this year, resulting in misleading signals, typical of range-bound market. Support: 119.42, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 11 months on 8/12/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 7/9/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 9 weeks on 8/15/14, reconfirming a medium-term downtrend since 7/10/14. Longer term, SLV could be attempting to form a base, or bottom, since bottoming at 17.75 on 4/27/13. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 11 weeks on 8/15/14, reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. The 50-200 SMA remains negative, with 50Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price broke down below a 5-month trendline and fell further below its lows of the previous 8 weeks on 8/14/14, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
30.48% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
6.29% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
0.65% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
6.17% , MBI , MBIA
1.53% , PCG , PG&E
1.82% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
1.74% , KO , COCA COLA
0.25% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.50% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
3.52% , A , AGILENT TECH
3.25% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
0.71% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.56% , FISV , FISERV
0.55% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.43% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.31% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.17% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
1.41% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
1.65% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
1.36% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
1.09% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.65% , MON , MONSANTO
1.50% , GCI , GANNETT
1.68% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
0.81% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
2.09% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.82% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
0.19% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
0.73% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.08% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
1.97% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
0.48% , QQQ.O , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.40% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-8.21% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-6.43% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-5.21% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-1.26% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.21% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-2.15% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-0.97% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
-2.46% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-2.22% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-0.65% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.80% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
-0.71% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-0.84% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-0.47% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-0.97% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-2.43% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-0.56% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-0.47% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
-0.85% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-1.21% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-0.54% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.48% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.55% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
-1.30% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-1.31% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
-1.15% , BBY , BEST BUY
-0.47% , BBT , BB&T
-2.74% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-1.30% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
-0.85% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
-0.79% , BCR , C R BARD
-1.83% , LB , L Brands, LB
-0.66% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.09% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.09% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.06% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.04% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.94% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.84% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.84% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.77% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.74% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.73% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.71% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.71% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.71% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.70% , Energy Global, IXC
0.68% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.65% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.53% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.48% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.43% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.43% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.40% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.40% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.38% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.38% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.38% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.35% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.31% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.30% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.30% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.28% , Canada Index, EWC
0.26% , Dividend International, PID
0.25% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.25% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.24% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.23% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.21% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.21% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.20% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.17% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.15% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.15% , Australia Index, EWA
0.15% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.14% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.14% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.14% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.12% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.12% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.11% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.10% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.10% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.10% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.09% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.08% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.07% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.07% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.05% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.04% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.04% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.04% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.03% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.02% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.02% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.01% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.01% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.01% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.00% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.01% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.02% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.03% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.03% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.04% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.04% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.04% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.05% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.05% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.05% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.05% , Global 100, IOO
-0.05% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.05% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.06% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.07% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.07% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.08% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.08% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.09% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.09% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.10% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.10% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.11% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.11% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.11% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.12% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.13% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.13% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.13% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.14% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.15% , France Index, EWQ
-0.15% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.15% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.15% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.16% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.19% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.19% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.19% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.20% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.20% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.21% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.21% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.23% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.26% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.27% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.28% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.30% , Networking, IGN
-0.30% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.30% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.31% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.32% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.33% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.33% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.33% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.38% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.44% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.44% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.45% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.45% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.48% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.48% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.51% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.54% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.60% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.65% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.67% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.71% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.73% , India PS, PIN
-0.80% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.85% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.26% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.26% , South Africa Index, EZA
-2.16% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1991.39, high of 7/24/2014
1957.06, 50-day SMA
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1867.43, 200-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
