Investors Intelligence Sentiment confirms that stock market newsletter advisors are extremely bullish. With 53.2% Bulls versus only 22.3% Bears, advisors are more bullish than they were at the stock market top in September, 2012, just before a 9% downside correction into November.
VIX Fear Index collapsed to 13.20 from 23.23 on 12/28/12. This indicates a shift to bullish complacency from worried concern.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically neutral when it crossed below its 50-day SMA.
Utilities stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months, again confirming its systematically bearish major trend.
The Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above previous highs, but the Dow-Jones Industrial Average stubbornly remained below its 2012 highs, thereby demonstrating non confirmation and bearish divergence.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,472.63) finished nearly unchanged again on Wednesday, up by only 0.29 points or 0.02%. It was another in a long and tiresome series of mixed and indecisive trading days, lulling traders into complacency bordering on stupor…set up for the kill?
NYSE trading volume rose 1% to a level that was still 5% below its 200-day SMA. Low volume indicates tepid demand for stocks.
The Art of Contrary Thinking calls for questioning popular optimism. Investor sentiment data indicated alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency in recent weeks, matching or exceeding extremes in September, 2012, when many stock price indexes hit peaks and reversed to the downside. Elevated levels of optimism are bearish because when the majority is extremely bullish, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but the market mood always reverts to the mean.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts made gains in 6 of the past 7 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1463.76, low of 1/15/13
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, 50-day SMA
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1393.75, 200-day SMA
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically bearish again on 1/10/13 when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA and a 6-months long downtrend line. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral on 12/26/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 33.57, 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.32, 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Support: 158.39, 157.40, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 164.14, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral on 12/13/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Support 28.61, 27.97, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 31.36, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/20/12. SLV/GLD turned systematically neutral on 12/14/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price remains systematically neutral. Long term, JJC has been consolidating losses in Triangle Consolidation chart pattern trading range between 38.99 and 51.41 for more than a year since October 2011. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.66% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
8.86% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
2.94% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
4.06% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
3.68% , CIEN.O , CIENA
4.13% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
3.62% , NE , NOBLE
3.70% , CMA , COMERICA
2.82% , YHOO , YAHOO
3.30% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
2.94% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
1.12% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
2.24% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
2.96% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
2.77% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
2.37% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
2.16% , XRX , XEROX
1.20% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.01% , KEY , KEYCORP
0.91% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
4.11% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
0.75% , EBAY , EBAY
0.73% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
1.36% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
0.35% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.90% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.39% , ALTR , ALTERA
0.92% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
1.49% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
0.85% , SWY , SAFEWAY
1.01% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
0.85% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.58% , HSP , HOSPIRA
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.68% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-5.74% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
-3.38% , BA , BOEING
-4.33% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-3.29% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
-1.40% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-4.14% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-0.82% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-0.48% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-2.76% , BK , BANK OF NEW YORK
-0.13% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
-1.45% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
-0.72% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
-1.56% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-1.26% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
-1.48% , T , AT&T Corp., T
-0.95% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-1.87% , STT , STATE STREET
-0.95% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-1.84% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-1.57% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-0.79% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
-0.97% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-1.11% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
-0.53% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
-0.58% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
-0.50% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.30% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
-1.40% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
-0.25% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-2.68% , AFL , AFLAC
-0.22% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.89% , AMGN , AMGEN
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.90% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.66% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.20% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.98% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.85% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.71% Australia Index, EWA
0.69% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.65% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.61% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.59% Singapore Index, EWS
0.50% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.45% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.41% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.37% Networking, IGN
0.35% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.34% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.30% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.26% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.26% Energy DJ, IYE
0.25% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.22% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.21% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.20% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.18% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.13% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.13% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.11% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.11% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.08% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.07% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.06% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.06% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.05% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.04% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.04% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.04% Mexico Index, EWW
0.04% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.04% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.03% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.03% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.00% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.00% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.02% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.02% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.02% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.03% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.03% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.03% Russia MV, RSX
-0.04% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.06% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.06% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.06% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.08% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.08% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.09% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.09% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.09% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.09% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.10% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.10% Energy Global, IXC
-0.10% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.11% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.12% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.12% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.13% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.13% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.14% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.14% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.14% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.14% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.15% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.16% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.16% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.16% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.16% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.17% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.17% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.17% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.18% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.18% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.19% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.19% Water Resources, PHO
-0.19% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.20% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.21% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.21% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.22% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.22% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.22% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.22% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.22% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.23% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.24% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.24% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.25% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.26% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.26% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.29% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.30% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.30% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.30% Global 100, IOO
-0.31% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.33% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.34% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.37% Dividend International, PID
-0.38% Austria Index, EWO
-0.39% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.40% Germany Index, EWG
-0.41% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.41% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.41% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.43% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.44% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.46% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.46% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.47% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.48% Canada Index, EWC
-0.48% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.48% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.50% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.51% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.55% France Index, EWQ
-0.55% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.60% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.62% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.64% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.71% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.72% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.74% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.78% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.80% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.83% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.92% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.95% India PS, PIN
-0.95% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.96% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.00% Spain Index, EWP
-1.20% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.21% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.40% Italy Index, EWI
