Health Care (XLV) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/11/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish).
US political news whipsaws the markets mercilessly. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,703.20, up 0.63%) absolute price opened modestly lower on Friday but quickly reversed to the upside on hopeful reports of a political deal. Prices worked their way higher until 1:08 p.m., then faded for most of the afternoon, until a steep upside sprint in the final 8 minutes drove the SPX back up near its highest level of the day. SPX closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, above its closing levels of the previous 14 trading days, and above its widely-watched 50-day SMA.
SPX turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on Thursday 10/10/13 by closing above its 50-day SMA. SPX remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50 remains above the 200. Subjectively, the SPX trend still looks uncertain for the short-term, day-to-day trend and no better than neutral for the medium term, since its May high. Momentum divergences, lagging volume, excessive bullish sentiment, and politics remain major obstacles to a sustainable upside trend.
NYSE total volume fell 14% to a level 20% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE both on bounced higher on Thursday and Friday. The Advance-Decline Line whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on Thursday 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral), although medium-term bearish divergences remain. The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line continues to lag: it fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/23/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The day-to-day Minor Ripple trend has turned uncertain since.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose to its highest level in 11 months on 10/1/13. QQQ/SPY turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed. Absolute price of EFA rose above its 4-year high of 64.14 on 9/18/13 and remains systematically bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/3/13 and rose above its highs of the past 18 months on 10/1/13 to confirm its preexisting bullish trend. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/24/13 and rose above its highs of the past 27 months on 10/1/13 to confirm its preexisting bullish trend. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/3/13. Price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 9/12/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically neutral on 8/26/13, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, DBA price has been in a cyclical bear market since peaking at 35.58 on 3/4/11. In addition, DBA has been in a secular bear market since peaking at 43.50 on 2/27/2008.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Support 36.82, 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 7 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/9/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support 19.88, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/9/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.03% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
5.52% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
6.91% , SWY , SAFEWAY
4.14% , MBI , MBIA
2.00% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
3.41% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
1.05% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.97% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.38% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
0.60% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
3.68% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
0.42% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
1.40% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
2.73% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
0.62% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.13% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.95% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
1.08% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
3.51% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
0.71% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.01% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
2.36% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
1.63% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
0.36% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
1.50% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.81% , CVG , CONVERGYS
0.65% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
0.64% , VO , MidCap VIPERs, VO
1.19% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
0.71% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.91% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
2.05% , LOW , LOWES
0.94% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.18% , GPS , GAP
-8.63% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-1.37% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-2.59% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-1.46% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.74% , NE , NOBLE
-0.65% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-1.34% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.92% , CSX , CSX
-0.69% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
-1.98% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-0.60% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-1.54% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-0.18% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-0.74% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-0.62% , DD , DU PONT
-0.24% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.13% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
-0.64% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-0.14% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-0.74% , DE , DEERE & CO
-0.13% , BK , BANK OF NEW YORK
-1.31% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
-0.55% , LLY , ELI LILLY
-0.09% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
-0.02% , WFC , WELLS FARGO
-0.07% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-0.07% , GLW , CORNING
-1.66% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.02% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.49% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.80% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.75% , Mexico Index, EWW
1.68% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.65% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.52% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.50% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.47% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.46% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.45% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.45% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.33% , Australia Index, EWA
1.22% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.19% , Water Resources, PHO
1.13% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.12% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.10% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.10% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.10% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.08% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.05% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.03% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.01% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.00% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.97% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.96% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.96% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.96% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.95% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.91% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.90% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.89% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.89% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.86% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.86% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.85% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.84% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.84% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.84% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.81% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.81% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.80% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.79% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.77% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.77% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.75% , Energy Global, IXC
0.75% , Networking, IGN
0.75% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.74% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.74% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.73% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.73% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.72% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.72% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.72% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.71% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.71% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.70% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.70% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.69% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.69% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.69% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.69% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.68% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.67% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.67% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.66% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.66% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.65% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.65% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.64% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.64% , Dividend International, PID
0.64% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.63% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.62% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.62% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.61% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.61% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.59% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.59% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.59% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.57% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.57% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.56% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.54% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.54% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.54% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.53% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.53% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.53% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.53% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.47% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.47% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.47% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.46% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.45% , Global 100, IOO
0.43% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.41% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.39% , Canada Index, EWC
0.38% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.36% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.36% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.35% , Germany Index, EWG
0.33% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.30% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.30% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.28% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.26% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.26% , Italy Index, EWI
0.25% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.19% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.18% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.17% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.17% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.16% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.16% , Austria Index, EWO
0.15% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.15% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.13% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.12% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.08% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.07% , France Index, EWQ
0.06% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.04% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.03% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.03% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.18% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.24% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.25% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.39% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.41% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.53% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.59% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.68% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.81% , India PS, PIN
-0.94% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.09% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.34% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.37% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.46% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1678.41, 50-day SMA
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1602.16, 200-day SMA
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
