By FXEmpire.com
NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis April 20, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation: (close of the Asian session)
The NZD/USD dropped over half a US cent with inflation figures expected to confirm there is little pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates this year.
The kiwi fell to 81.45 US cents at 8am from 82.16 cents. The trade weighted index decreased to 72.72 from 73.27 yesterday.
The market is pricing in a 0.6 per cent increase in the consumer price index for the March quarter.
If the figure is on expectations then you are likely to see the kiwi come under further downside pressure.
It leaves the New Zealand dollar vulnerable to a flat number.
In March, Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard held the official cash rate at 2.5 per cent saying the strength of the kiwi dollar would keep interest rates lower for longer.
Traders are betting central bank will hike the rate by just 4 basis points over the next 12 months, according to the Overnight Index Swap curve.
Economic Data for April 18 & 19, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
GBP |
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
1.1% |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
|
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
3.6K |
7.0K |
4.5K |
|
|
GBP |
MPC Meeting Minutes |
||||
|
NZD |
CPI (QoQ) |
0.5% |
0.6% |
-0.3% |
|
|
Apr. 19 |
JPY |
Trade Balance |
-0.62T |
-0.43T |
-0.32T |
|
AUD |
NAB Quarterly Business Confidence |
-1.00 |
1.00 |
Economic Events scheduled for April 20, 2012 that affect the NZD, AUD, and JPY
13:00:00 G20 Meeting
Government Bond Auction Schedule:
Apr 20 15:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Apr 24 & BOT on Apr 26
Apr 23-27 n/a UK Re-opened 3.75% 2052 Conventional Gilt syndication (further details tba)
Apr 23 09:30 Germany Eur 3.0bn new Apr 2013 (12M) Bubill
Apr 23 10:00 Belgium OLO Auction cancelled
Apr 23 15:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Apr 27
Apr 24 00:30 Japan Auctions 20Y JGBs
Apr 24 08:30 Holland Eur 1.5-2.5bn Jul 2014 & Jan 2037 DSL auction
Apr 24 08:30 Spain 3 & 6M T-bill auction
Apr 24 09:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei
Apr 24 14:30 UK Details Conventional Gilt auction on May 01 & I/L auction on May 03
Apr 24 17:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes
Apr 25 09:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills
Apr 25 09:30 Germany Eur 3.0bn new Jul 2044 Bund
Apr 25 14:30 Sweden Details nominal bond auction on May 02
Apr 25 17:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes
Apr 26 00:30 Japan Auctions 2Y JGBs
Apr 26 09:10 Italy BOT auction
Apr 26 14:30 Sweden Details I/L bond auction on May 03
Apr 26 17:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes
Apr 27 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction
Originally posted here
