Thursday, November 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower crude oil prices that hit a fresh 22-month low and a firmer U.S. dollar.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The bearish posture of the key “outside markets” today do not bode well for the commodity futures markets. Crude oil prices are lower, the U.S. dollar is stronger against the other major currencies and the U.S. stock market looks to open weaker today. The commodity markets have been mostly ignoring their own fundamentals and looking to these outside markets for direction on a daily basis. Look for this situation to continue for at least the near term.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are slightly lower again in early morning trading today and did set fresh contract lows in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes as prices hover near their recent contract lows.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight contract low of 795.00 and then at 775.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 825.00 and then at 850.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 841.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 827.80
1st Support:——– 789.20
2nd Support:——– 765.90
1st Resistance:—– 851.10
2nd Resistance:—– 889.70
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight contract low of 1,068.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,050.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,100.00 and then at 1,125.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,135.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,116.60
1st Support:—— 1,057.90
2nd Support:—— 1,023.35
1st Resistance:— 1,151.20
2nd Resistance:— 1,209.85
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 7,900 and then more stops just below support at 7,800. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,000 and then just above resistance at 8,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,298
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,162
1st Support:—— 7,840
2nd Support:—— 7,652
1st Resistance:— 8,350
2nd Resistance:— 8,672
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are solidly higher again early today and hit a fresh highs overnight. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 123 even and then at the overnight low of 122 18/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the contract high of 123 27/32 and then at 124 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 121 even
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 121 21/32
1st Support:—– 120 28/32 2nd Support:—– 119 16/32
1st Resistance:– 123 1/32
2nd Resistance:– 123 26/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight contract high of 120.05.0 and then at 120.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 119.16.0 and then at 119.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118.20.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 119 2/32
1st Support:—– 118 22/32 2nd Support:—– 117 31/32
1st Resistance:– 119 25/32
2nd Resistance:– 120 5/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 88.00 and then at 88.25. Shorter-term support is seen at 87.50 and then at 87.12. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.71. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The December Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.2458 and then just below support at 1.2400. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2600 and then at 1.2700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2694. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today. Trading has been choppy. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $750.80 and then at this week’s high of $764.80. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $732.60 and then at this week’s low of $729.60. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $740.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower again early today. Prices fell to another fresh 22-month low overnight. Bears are still in near-term technical control. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $53.30 and then just above resistance at $54.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $51.95 and then more sell stops just below support at $51.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $55.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are solidly bearish early today–crude oil prices are lower and the U.S. dollar is stronger. U.S. stock indexes are also weaker. Grain bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grains, as the path of least resistance for the grains remains sideways at best. There has not been much new fresh fundamental news in the grain markets recently, so traders are continuing to focus on the outside markets for direction. Traders will examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales data.
