Monday, November 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock indexes, higher crude oil prices and a sharply lower U.S. dollar.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Here are my market biases: The U.S. stock indexes are at or near their lows, as are the grain futures markets. Gold will not see a sustained rally and will sell off in the not-too-distant future. Crude oil is at or near a market bottom and the U.S. dollar will continue strong, but not see the strong and steep gains seen in recent months.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early morning trading today on short covering. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 800.00 and then at the overnight low of 783.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 825.00 and then at 850.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 812.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 777.85
1st Support:——– 753.20
2nd Support:——– 714.35
1st Resistance:—– 816.70
2nd Resistance:—– 841.35
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,074.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,050.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,125.00 and then at 1,150.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,117.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,066.70
1st Support:—— 1,040.35
2nd Support:—— 977.85
1st Resistance:— 989.70
2nd Resistance:— 1,143.70
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,100 and then more stops just below support at 8,000. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,200 and then just above resistance at 8,300. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,007
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 7,852
1st Support:—— 7,629
2nd Support:—— 7,222
1st Resistance:— 8,259
2nd Resistance:— 8,482
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are narrowly mixed in early trading today, after mammoth gains last week. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 126 even and then at the overnight low of 125 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 126 16/32 and then at 127 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 125 6/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 126 15/32
1st Support:—– 124 17/32 2nd Support:—– 122 26/32
1st Resistance:– 128 6/32
2nd Resistance:– 130 4/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 120.12.0 and then at 121.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 119.23.5 and then at 119.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119.12.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 120 20/32
1st Support:—– 119 24/32 2nd Support:—– 119 2/32
1st Resistance:– 121 10/32
2nd Resistance:– 122 6/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is sharply lower in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 88.00 and then at the overnight high of 88.39. Shorter-term support is seen at 87.50 and then at last week’s low of 87.14. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.71. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
The December Euro is sharply higher in early electronic trading, on short covering. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2650 and then just below support at the overnight low of 1.2554. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at last week’s high of 1.2770 and then at 1.2800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2694. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
GOLD
Gold is solidly higher in early dealings today. Bulls do have near-term technical momentum on their side as prices hit a fresh five-week high overnight. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $824.30 and then at $835.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $800.00 and then at the overnight low of $787.20. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $842.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today, on short covering in a bear market. Bears are still in near-term technical control. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $52.09 and then just above resistance at $53.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $51.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $50.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $53.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on short covering from solid losses late last week. The key “outside markets” are bullish early today–crude oil prices are higher and the U.S. dollar is sharply lower. U.S. stock indexes are also firmer. Grain bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grains. There has not been much new fresh fundamental news in the grain markets recently, so traders are continuing to focus on the outside markets for direction.
