* Latest Market Developments *

(Follow me on Twitter: @jimwyckoff)

In overnight news, the German government auctioned a two-year note (the Schatz) for a negative yield Wednesday, which fetched -0.05%. Investors are paying the German government to hold their cash. This is yet another sign of the very low confidence in the European economy’s health and its financial system.

Meantime, the Bank of England said Wednesday that an interest rate hike from the BOE will come later rather than sooner due to low inflation and lower U.K. economic growth expectations. Still, the BOE expects to make a rate hike in late 2015.

On Nov. 30 the Swiss public will vote on a measure to force the Swiss National Bank to hold 20% of its assets in gold within five years. Reports said the SNB currently has total assets of around $550 billion. A recent Swiss poll showed the vote will be close. The SNB chief on Wednesday warned the passage of the referendum would destabilize prices.

The recently red-hot U.S. dollar index has cooled off just a bit this week, as some profit taking is occurring. Last week the greenback hit a four-year high. Nymex crude oil prices are trading not far above a three-year low scored last week. These two key “outside markets” will continue to have a daily influence on many other markets.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is again light and includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and monthly wholesale trade.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (Geopolitical risks have been moved to the back burner of the market place…for now.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early trading, on profit taking after hitting a record high Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s record high of 2,039.00 and then at 2,050.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,021.00 and then at 2,010.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early trading, on mild profit taking after hitting a 14-year high Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 4,188.00 and then at 4,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 4,175.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 4,164.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a record high Tuesday. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s record high of 17,580 and then at 17,600. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at this week’s low of 17,500 and then at 17,440. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on short covering. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 141 20/32 and then at 142 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 141 even and then at the overnight low of 140 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0 December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.17.0 and then at 126.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 126.08.0 and then at the overnight low of 126.03.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading. Prices are still hovering near the recent contract and four-year high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 88.00 and then at this week’s high of 88.155. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 87.470 and then at this week’s low of 87.210. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are hovering just above a three-year low. Bears remain in solid overall near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.42 and then at last week’s low of $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Grain futures markets were higher in overnight trading. A surprisingly strong rally in soybean futures Tuesday has energized all the grain market bulls today. Recent price action suggests all of the big, bearish supply news may now be factored into grain futures prices. The grain market bulls are keeping fledgling price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. Traders will also keep a close eye on the important “outside markets”—crude oil and the U.S. dollar index—which have lately been favoring the bearish camp.