NYSE volume fell 5 days in a row. NYSE total volume fell 9% to a level 11% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX) rose to another new high, thereby reconfirming its preexisting systematically bullish trend.
U.S. stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been present for months and remain, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/10/14 when the both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 14 years on 10/28/14 and remains systematically bullish. In addition, QQQ absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 14 years on 11/11/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 11/10/14. The BKF/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 11/5/14, thereby turning systematically bearish. Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 9 years on 11/6/14. The EEM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 10/22/14, thereby turning systematically bearish. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 11/7/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years. Absolute price of EFA also remains systematically bearish, with the declining 50-day SMA falling further below the declining 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) lost bullish momentum since peaking on 10/13/14 and remains neutral. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been relatively weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been relatively weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose to a new high on 10/15/14. TLT crossed above its 50-day SMA on 9/25/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 118.21, 112.73, 110.34, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 17 months on 10/15/14. IEF crossed above its 50-day SMA on 10/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 104.45, 102.45, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 108.88, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/15/14 and remains systematically bearish. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/1/14. Absolute price of JNK has turned unusually volatile since 6/24/14.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 9/18/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 3 years on 11/6/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 22.45, 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 years on 11/4/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 26.28 and 22.74. Resistance 31.63, 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support: 102.28 and 84.92. Resistance: 120.50, 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price of GDX fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/31/14.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.09, 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/16/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.54% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
0.73% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.40% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
0.87% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
2.11% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
2.60% , DRI , DARDEN REST
2.43% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
3.45% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
1.63% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
1.44% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
2.22% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
0.52% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
2.38% , HSP , HOSPIRA
3.33% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
0.97% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
0.11% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
0.11% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
1.27% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.63% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
0.07% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
0.04% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.03% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
0.20% , TE , TECO ENERGY
0.02% , IWR , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.09% , VXF , Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
0.03% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.43% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.64% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-2.73% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-0.22% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-4.81% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-1.63% , SEE , SEALED AIR
-0.91% , SPLS , STAPLES
-1.27% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
-1.05% , TJX , TJX
-0.85% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.56% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
-0.84% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-0.70% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
-0.73% , YHOO , YAHOO
-0.73% , LLY , ELI LILLY
-0.03% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
-0.29% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.57% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
-0.15% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.47% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.43% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.27% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.19% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.02% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.98% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.87% , Spain Index, EWP
0.82% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.81% , Austria Index, EWO
0.77% , France Index, EWQ
0.77% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.76% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.75% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.73% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.70% , Canada Index, EWC
0.70% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.68% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.67% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.63% , Germany Index, EWG
0.63% , Italy Index, EWI
0.60% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.60% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.60% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.59% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.53% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.52% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.51% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.51% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.50% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.49% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.49% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.48% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.47% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.44% , Dividend International, PID
0.43% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.37% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.37% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.36% , Global 100, IOO
0.34% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.32% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.32% , Australia Index, EWA
0.32% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.31% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.31% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.30% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.30% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.28% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.27% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.24% , Energy Global, IXC
0.23% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.21% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.21% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.20% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.18% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.17% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.17% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.17% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.16% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.15% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.15% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.14% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.13% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.13% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.12% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.11% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.11% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.10% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.10% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.10% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.09% , India PS, PIN
0.09% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.09% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.08% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.08% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.07% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.07% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.07% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.07% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.07% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.05% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.05% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.05% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.04% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.04% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.03% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.03% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.03% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.03% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.03% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.03% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.02% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.01% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.01% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.01% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.00% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.00% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.00% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.02% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.05% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.08% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.08% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.09% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.10% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.11% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.11% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.12% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.12% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.13% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.14% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.18% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.19% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.19% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.19% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.22% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.22% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.22% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.24% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.25% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.25% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.26% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.28% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.29% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.30% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.30% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.32% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.33% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.34% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.37% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.39% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.39% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.45% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.47% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.49% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.62% , Networking, IGN
-0.66% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.71% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.82% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.85% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2041.28, high of 11/11/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1972.15, 50-day SMA
1919.71, 200-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1820.66, low of 10/15/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
