iShares MSCI Spain Index Relative Strength Ratio (EWP/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 9 years on 4/19/12, reconfirming its bearish long-term trend. “Spain’s economic plight is getting worse,” according to Barrons. “If Spain’s liquidity problems persist–and they will–the European Financial Stability Facility may be called upon to provide precautionary credit lines, or to recapitalize the banking sector.”
iShares MSCI France Index Relative Strength Ratio (EWQ/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous decade on 4/19/12, reconfirming its bearish long-term trend. The probable defeat of French President Nicolas Sarkozy by Socialist Party candidate Francois Hollande is generally expected to be bearish for France and disruptive for the entire eurozone.
Germany, iShares MSCI Germany Index Relative Strength Ratio (EWG/SPY) remains systematically bearish, below both 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/1711. “Germany sees upswing amid eurozone turmoil,” said BusinessWeek. The slight uptick in business optimism reflected in last week’s Ifo institute survey of German business executives indeed may indicate resilience relative to the eurozone as a whole–but not relative to the rest of the world.
iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Relative Strength Ratio (SOXX/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 3-months on 4/20/12. SOXX appears to have significant downside potential.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,378.53) rose 0.12% on Friday. NYSE volume fell 8%, suggesting relative weak buying pressure.
SPX is down 2.13% for April month-to-date–despite widely-hailed earnings beats.
NASDAQ Composite (3,000.45) fell 0.24% on Friday. NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke sharply below the lows of the previous 5 weeks and closed below its 50-day SMA on 4/20/12. Absolute price also fell below the lows of the previous 5 weeks and closed below its 50-day SMA on 4/16/12. A significant downside correction could be at hand. SPX crossed below its 50-day SMA again 4/19/12. SPX has closed below its 50-day SMA 6 of the past 9 trading days. SPX has closed below its 20-day SMA each of the past 12 trading days.
MACD based on SPX fell bearishly below its Signal Line 3 weeks ago, on 3/28/12, and has remained below every day since.
On-Balance Volume based on SPX has demonstrated a bearish divergence since OBV peaked on 3/19/12.
Volatility has increased over the past 5 weeks, suggesting doubt replacing bullish complacency.
A variety of technical indicators have been demonstrating waning bullish momentum for stocks. A downside correction or shakeout has seemed overdue, according to past norms.
Following unusually large price run ups, such as Q1 2012, stocks become more vulnerable to sudden reversals. Potential Reward relative to potential Risk remains unattractive for stocks at this time.
The SPX chart broke down below the rising lower boundary line of a Bearish Rising Wedge on 4/5/12, thereby giving a clear bearish chart signal. This chart pattern suggests that stocks could erase all gains since the 10/4/11 low of 1,074.77 on the S&P 500.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Available by subscription only (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Available by subscription only (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) is systematically neutral at this time: below its 50-day SMA, above 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 21.85, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.23, 22.47, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index fell further below its lows of the previous 3 months on 4/19/12. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 17 months on 4/18/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 4/3/12, turning systematically neutral. A day or two of strong price action could turn USO bullish again. USO remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 38.31, 36.67, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.89, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke down below its lows of the previous 12 weeks and fell further below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 4/4/12. Systematically, GLD turned bearish on 4/17/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Support: 156.58, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 3 years on 4/11/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Systematically, GDX/GLD remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) broke down below its lows of the previous 11 weeks on 4/4/12, confirming a downtrend for the medium term. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 30.11, 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) broke down below its lows of the previous 12 weeks on 4/13/12, confirming a downtrend for the medium term. SLV/GLD remains below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell further below its lows of the past 3 months on 4/16/12, confirming a downtrend for the medium term. Systematically, however, JJC remains neutral: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA now only moderately above the 200-day SMA. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.47% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
0.73% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
6.08% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
4.72% , NCR , NCR
0.88% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
4.30% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
4.55% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
4.17% , BC , BRUNSWICK
2.72% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
0.90% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
0.68% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
5.20% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
0.22% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
2.40% , HON , HONEYWELL INTL
1.84% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
1.26% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.26% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
1.84% , CR , CRANE
1.59% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
0.52% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
1.51% , TIF , TIFFANY
1.40% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
1.19% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
1.75% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
2.00% , AMGN , AMGEN
1.01% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.34% , OMC , OMNICOM
3.11% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
1.08% , AN , AUTONATION
1.99% , EL , Estee Lauder
1.38% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
1.70% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
0.87% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-8.26% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
-11.27% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-5.99% , INTU , INTUIT
-8.44% , ALTR , ALTERA
-4.51% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-4.56% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-4.56% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-5.21% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-1.76% , SYY , SYSCO
-1.83% , XLNX , XILINX
-2.20% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-2.41% , BBY , BEST BUY
-1.47% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-2.31% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-5.64% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-4.00% , MBI , MBIA
-2.59% , GLW , CORNING
-2.63% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-1.55% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
-1.59% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-2.52% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
-0.47% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
-1.21% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
-2.46% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-1.73% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
-0.40% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.63% , TER , TERADYNE
-1.18% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-2.53% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-0.60% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
-0.81% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-0.81% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
-0.10% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.10% Spain Index, EWP
1.85% Sweden Index, EWD
1.82% Italy Index, EWI
1.64% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.63% Austria Index, EWO
1.47% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.41% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.40% South Africa Index, EZA
1.36% Germany Index, EWG
1.32% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.29% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.28% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.27% European VIPERs, VGK
1.26% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.26% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.22% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.19% Water Resources, PHO
1.17% Russia MV, RSX
1.13% Mexico Index, EWW
1.10% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.05% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.05% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.05% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.05% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.01% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.01% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.99% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.98% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.96% EAFE Index, EFA
0.91% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.91% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.90% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.90% Global 100, IOO
0.87% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.85% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.80% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.78% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.77% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.76% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.75% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.72% Dividend International, PID
0.71% Belgium Index, EWK
0.70% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.69% France Index, EWQ
0.69% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.67% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.67% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.64% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.64% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.62% China 25 iS, FXI
0.61% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.58% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.55% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.54% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.52% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.51% Australia Index, EWA
0.51% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.48% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.47% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.47% Singapore Index, EWS
0.47% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.45% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.39% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.38% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.37% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.37% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.34% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.34% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.33% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.33% India PS, PIN
0.33% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.32% Canada Index, EWC
0.26% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.26% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.26% Japan Index, EWJ
0.25% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.23% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.21% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.20% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.19% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.19% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.18% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.18% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.17% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.17% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.16% Energy Global, IXC
0.16% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.16% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.16% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.14% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.13% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.13% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.13% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.13% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.12% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.10% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.09% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.08% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.07% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.05% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.03% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.03% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.02% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.02% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.01% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.01% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.01% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.03% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.05% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.05% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.12% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.13% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.14% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.16% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.16% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.17% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.19% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.23% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.25% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.25% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.26% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.27% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.28% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.37% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.39% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.40% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.49% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.51% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.52% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.64% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.67% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.67% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.78% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.39% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.22% Networking, IGN
-2.31% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-3.35% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
