* Latest Market Developments *

(Follow me on Twitter: @jimwyckoff)

The two key “outside markets” start out the trading week with the U.S. dollar index lower and crude oil prices higher. That will be a bullish underlying factor for the raw commodity sector today. The dollar index hit a four-year high last week, while crude oil prices hit a three-year low last week.

U.S. stock indexes are firmer in overnight trading and are hovering near their recent record or multi-year highs. The past few weeks have seen more of a “risk-on” trader mentality in the market place.

There is an OPEC meeting on November 27. OPEC officials are already jaw-boning, telling the media there is no panic in the cartel. However, the plunging crude oil market has severely strained OPEC.

In overnight news, the Russian ruble rebounded following its recent drubbing against other major currencies. The ruble was supported on rhetoric coming from Russia’s central bank, saying it will intervene in the currency markets to support the ruble. Russian president Putin also called the recent downslide in the ruble just speculation in the market.

China’s consumer inflation rate held steady, at up 1.6% year-on-year, in October, it was reported Monday. The figure was in line with expectations.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index.

(Note: Follow me on Twitter–@jimwyckoff–for breaking market news.)

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (Geopolitical risks have been moved to the back burner of the market place…for now.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early trading. Prices Friday hit a record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s record high of 2,033.50 and then at 2,050.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,010.75 and then at last week’s low of 1,995.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading and hovering near last week’s 14-year high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 4,177.00 and then at 4,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 4,150.00 and then at 4,135.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are hovering near last Friday’s record high. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 17,550 and then at 17,600. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 17,500 and then at Friday’s low of 17,440. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today and hit a two-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 142 8/32 and then at 142 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 141 23/32 and then at 141 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5 December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early trading and hit a two-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 127.00.5 and then at 127.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.20.5 and then at 126.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading, on profit taking after hitting and hit a contract and four-year high on Friday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight contract high of 87.640 and then at 87.750. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 87.210 and then at 87.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Short covering is featured. Prices last week hit a three-year low. Bears remain in firm overall near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at the overnight low of $78.35. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures markets were mixed in overnight trading. Position evening is featured ahead of Monday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. This report is not expected to be bullish, but all of the big-supply news may now be factored into grain futures prices. The grain market bulls are working to keep their fledgling price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. Traders will also keep a close eye on the important “outside markets”—crude oil and the U.S. dollar index—which have lately been favoring the bearish camp.