Financial (XLF) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/7/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend.
U.S. stock market price indexes opened lower again and continued to decline until 10:30 a.m. ET. Prices partially recovered after that intraday low to close lower than the previous close but near the open and above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,690.91) fell 0.38% and closed below the closes of the previous 4 trading days. On Tuesday, 8/6/13, SPX broke down below a 6-week uptrend line rising from the intraday low 1,560.33 on 6/24/13, and SPX remains below that trendline.
NYSE total volume fell 3% a level 10% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE fell again. In July and so far in August, both failed to rise above their May highs; therefore, both remain bearishly divergent relative to the price indexes. In addition, the Net Number of New Highs-Lows remains far below its May high, thereby diverging bearishly as well.
Popular price momentum oscillators based on SPX, such as RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9), failed to rise above their May highs in recent weeks to confirm new highs by the price indexes. So, both oscillators remain bearishly divergent.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) remains systematically neutral, although its trend appears to be changing in a more bullish direction. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/5/13.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 years on 7/9/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007. Absolute price peaked at 64.14 on 5/22/13 and fell to a 6-month low on 6/24/13, confirming a significant downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) remains systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). UUP rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/1/13. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a systematically bullish trend above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Support 36.22, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 7/30/13 when price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been trending down since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 130.14, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.89, 20.53, 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 7/30/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. The JJC price trend has been bearish since price peaked at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.58% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
8.49% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
6.82% , AMGN , AMGEN
0.23% , IGN , Networking, IGN
1.58% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
2.54% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
1.96% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
0.85% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
1.80% , TLAB , TELLABS
0.39% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
1.37% , CTAS , CINTAS
1.13% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
2.30% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
0.74% , INTU , INTUIT
0.75% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.42% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
1.37% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
0.13% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
0.27% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
0.93% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
1.68% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
0.72% , PKI , PERKINELMER
0.48% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.58% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
0.21% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.04% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.59% , NI , NISOURCE
0.61% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.38% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
0.19% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.31% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
0.93% , D , DOMINION RSCS
0.24% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.40% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-8.64% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-3.43% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-5.49% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-2.88% , MOLX , MOLEX
-4.75% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
-3.91% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.16% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-0.21% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.72% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.35% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-3.35% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-1.68% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
-1.89% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.64% , LM , LEGG MASON
-1.96% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
-0.64% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.75% , MTB , M&T BANK
-1.36% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.70% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
-1.68% , MBI , MBIA
-1.54% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-1.07% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.95% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
-1.69% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-3.03% , BBY , BEST BUY
-1.06% , AEE , AMEREN
-2.24% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-1.70% , MAR , MARRIOTT INTL STK A
-1.67% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
-1.42% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
-1.52% , AA , ALCOA
-1.71% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.11% , Spain Index, EWP
1.06% , Italy Index, EWI
0.85% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.75% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.61% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.53% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.51% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.47% , France Index, EWQ
0.46% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.44% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.42% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.39% , Austria Index, EWO
0.36% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.32% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.30% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.26% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.24% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.23% , Networking, IGN
0.22% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.20% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.16% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.15% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.15% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.14% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.13% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.08% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.04% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.04% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.00% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.00% , Russia MV, RSX
0.00% , Germany Index, EWG
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.08% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.08% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.10% , Global 100, IOO
-0.12% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.15% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.15% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.15% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.15% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.16% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.18% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.20% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.20% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.21% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.23% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.24% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.25% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.25% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.26% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.26% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.27% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.27% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.28% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.29% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.29% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.30% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.31% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.32% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.32% , India PS, PIN
-0.32% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.33% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.33% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.34% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.35% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.35% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.36% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.39% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.39% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.40% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.40% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.40% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.41% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.41% , Dividend International, PID
-0.41% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.42% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.42% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.42% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.43% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.44% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.48% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.48% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.51% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.52% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.52% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.54% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.54% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.55% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.57% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.58% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.60% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.63% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.64% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.64% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.65% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.65% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.66% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.66% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.67% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.68% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.69% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.70% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.71% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.72% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.73% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.73% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.75% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.76% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.78% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.79% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.79% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.81% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.83% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.84% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.84% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.88% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.95% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.95% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-1.04% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.07% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.08% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.09% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.15% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.18% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.20% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.34% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.35% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.36% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.36% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.40% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.43% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.60% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.69% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.71% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.72% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.87% , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.89% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.98% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.16% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-3.91% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1660.03, Fib 78.6% of May-June 2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1650.64, 50-day SMA
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1540.91, 200-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
