The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX), NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQ), Small Cap Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), and S&P Mid Cap 400 ETF (MDY) absolute prices rose to new highs on 1/15/14 and remain systematically bullish.
Energy (XLE) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 3 years on 1/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/15/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,848.38), up 0.52%, absolute price gapped higher on the open and added to gains during the first 97 minutes, after which prices spent most of the day choppy. S&P 500 closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above previous closing price levels. Other indexes also finished with good gains.
NYSE total volume rose 7% to a level matching its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose to 439 on Wednesday, which was still far below peaks above 800 in 2013, and thereby diverging bearishly compared to higher highs for the large-capitalization stock price indexes.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 continue to lag the price index itself. Both were unable to rise above their previous 2013 highs as the S&P 500 price rose to higher price highs.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highest levels of the previous 15 months on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term uptrend. QQQ/SPY rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/15/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/9/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 1/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/9/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/20/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/15/14 and remains systematically bullish.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/7/14 by crossing above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/15/14 and remains systematically bullish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/15/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 1/9/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA has been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, since it peaked at 35.58 on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 1/9/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. USO remains below both SMAs, and the 50-day SMA is below the 200-day SMA. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.07, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/14/14 when it whipsawed below its 50-day SMA. Support: 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 122.32, 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Previously, GDX/GLD fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.69, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/1, but SLV has held up better then GLD since 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.50% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
4.82% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
8.26% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
1.66% , IGV , Software, IGV
2.77% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
3.65% , SNV , SYNOVUS
2.27% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
4.02% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
3.47% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
2.04% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
2.87% , XLNX , XILINX
4.86% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
1.52% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
1.48% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
3.95% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
2.62% , AA , ALCOA
2.21% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
4.00% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
6.09% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
1.93% , C , CITIGROUP
4.06% , TER , TERADYNE
2.39% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
2.26% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
1.79% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.49% , USB , US BANCORP
0.84% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.85% , LLY , ELI LILLY
1.19% , XLF , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.59% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
1.36% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.94% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.21% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
0.44% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.46% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-3.25% , AN , AUTONATION
-2.33% , MBI , MBIA
-3.50% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-2.34% , HES , AMERADA HESS
-3.45% , GCI , GANNETT
-1.55% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-2.24% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-2.41% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
-1.06% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-1.61% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-1.10% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
-2.64% , MDP , MEREDITH
-1.18% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-1.17% , PPL , PPL
-1.41% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-0.39% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.83% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-0.52% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-1.18% , EL , Estee Lauder
-1.90% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-0.94% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-1.59% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
-0.95% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
-0.39% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
-1.02% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
-0.29% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-1.25% , LOW , LOWES
-0.27% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
-0.11% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.27% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
-0.31% , MHFI.K , McGraw Hill Financial, Inc., MHFI.K
-0.29% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.21% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
2.14% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.93% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.79% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.73% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.64% , Networking, IGN
1.52% , Spain Index, EWP
1.51% , Italy Index, EWI
1.50% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.48% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.36% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.34% , Germany Index, EWG
1.26% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.21% , Technology SPDR, XLK
1.19% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.17% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.09% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.09% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.02% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.01% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.01% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.00% , Water Resources, PHO
0.94% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.91% , Austria Index, EWO
0.90% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.89% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.84% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.83% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.82% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.82% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.78% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.77% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.77% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.77% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.76% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.75% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.75% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.75% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.72% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.71% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.70% , Global 100, IOO
0.69% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.69% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.68% , France Index, EWQ
0.65% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.65% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.61% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.60% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.60% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.59% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.59% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.58% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.58% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.58% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.57% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.57% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.56% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.55% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.55% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.54% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.54% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.54% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.54% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.53% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.53% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.52% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.52% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.52% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.51% , Russia MV, RSX
0.50% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.47% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.46% , Canada Index, EWC
0.44% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.43% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.43% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.42% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.42% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.42% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.39% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.39% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.37% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.34% , India PS, PIN
0.31% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.30% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.30% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.30% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.29% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.28% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.26% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.24% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.20% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.19% , Dividend International, PID
0.19% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.17% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.17% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.16% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.13% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.11% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.03% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.02% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.02% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.01% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.00% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.00% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.00% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.02% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.03% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.03% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.08% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.08% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.09% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.09% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.09% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.09% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.10% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.11% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.11% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.11% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.17% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.18% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.18% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.19% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.19% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.19% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.21% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.23% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.24% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.27% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.29% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.30% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.37% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.39% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.44% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.48% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.49% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.55% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.63% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-1.55% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-2.14% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
none
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1804.50, 50-day SMA
1767.99, low of 12/18/2013
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1693.09, 200-day SMA
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
