U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically bearish again on 11/30/12 when price fell below its 50-day SMA.
Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) turned systematically neutral again on 11/30/12 when price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA.
Financial stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 11/30/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Long term, XLF/SPY Relative Strength topped out on 3/23/04 and is merely bumping along at a low level. Absolute price turned systematically neutral on 11/26/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA.
Copper ETN (JJC) rose above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA on 11/30/12. Long term, JJC has been consolidating losses in Triangle chart pattern trading range between 38.99 and 51.41 for more than a year since October 2011.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1416.18) rose 0.50% last week, its second consecutive week of gain. Although overnight price strength in foreign stock markets seemed to encourage bullish sentiment, upside momentum slowed substantially. Nearly all of the gain for the week occurred overnight in the wee hours of Thursday morning when the U.S. stock market was closed–that gain apparently based on hope that U. S. political opponents might compromise on a tax and spending deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. During the regular day session on Thursday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed near its opening price, forming Spinning Top Candlestick, which indicated indecision. Another Spinning Top Candlestick on Friday confirmed Thursday’s stalemate in the battle of bullish and bearish forces. In addition, SPX price tested but failed to penetrate resistance at its falling 50-day SMA now at 1421.60, which also happens to be just below the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the SPX September-November price range at 1,424.41. Thus, the SPX has arrived at a significant zone of technical resistance. resistance. Another failed short-term rally attempt may be at hand.
The technical condition of the stock market has not supported the excessive optimism that the bullish majority of stock investors and traders clearly exhibited over the past several months. Long-term momentum has been showing bearish divergence and has weakened considerably since the SPX price peak on 9/14/12. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts preserved capital over the past 9 weeks while the S&P 500 fell 8.9%, based on intraday highs and lows from 9/14/12 to 11/16/12. In addition, our clients’ accounts made gains every quarter for the past 6 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1464.02, high of 10/18/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1421.60, 50-day SMA
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1384.74, 200-day SMA
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and TLT’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 123.43, 121.78, 119.87, 118.05, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and IEF’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 107.99, 107.25, 106.59, 106.42, 105.84, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/28/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. JNK/LQD fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA has remained consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/1/12.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically neutral on 11/13/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. TIP/IEF rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/27/12, and the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 10/10/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically bearish again on 11/30/12 when price fell below its 50-day SMA. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.89, 21.86, 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) turned systematically neutral again on 11/30/12 when price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, although the 50-200 spread has been narrowing gradually.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO price fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 32.93, 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. GLD price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. Support: 165.18, 162.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral on 11/5/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA since 10/19/12, but a bearish crossover seems possible in weeks ahead.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/21/12, thereby turning systematically bullish. The 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/1/12. Support 31.91, 29.84, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/20/12, thereby turning systematically bullish. Longer term, SLV/GLD 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/9/12.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) rose above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA on 11/30/12. Long term, JJC has been consolidating losses in Triangle chart pattern trading range between 38.99 and 51.41 for more than a year since October 2011. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
20.68% , TLAB , TELLABS
2.40% , AES , AES
2.98% , WPO , Washington Post
2.54% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
3.52% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
1.12% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
1.35% , CLX , CLOROX
7.84% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
1.46% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
2.29% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
2.54% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
1.06% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.36% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
1.13% , FISV , FISERV
0.94% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
0.99% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
1.49% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
1.43% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
2.08% , NBR , NABORS
1.24% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
1.09% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
1.34% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
0.94% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
1.04% , CVG , CONVERGYS
0.49% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
1.33% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
1.38% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
1.15% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
0.71% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
0.38% , CB , CHUBB
0.38% , CR , CRANE
1.75% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
1.43% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-13.19% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-6.11% , CBE , COOPER INDS STK A
-9.92% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
-1.99% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-5.14% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-1.82% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-0.90% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.91% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
-1.76% , TXT , TEXTRON
-1.49% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-1.87% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-1.09% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-1.43% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
-2.32% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.72% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-0.86% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
-1.77% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
-1.05% , FHN , First Horizon National
-0.79% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.77% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
-1.44% , DRI , DARDEN REST
-1.96% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.49% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
-3.11% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-0.92% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-1.60% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-0.50% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-1.38% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
-2.22% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
-0.66% , DOV , DOVER
-1.82% , C , CITIGROUP
-0.45% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
-1.69% , CMI , CUMMINS
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.24% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.21% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.16% Russia MV, RSX
1.06% Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.04% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.93% India PS, PIN
0.85% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.81% China 25 iS, FXI
0.72% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.59% Singapore Index, EWS
0.56% Sweden Index, EWD
0.56% Germany Index, EWG
0.52% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.52% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.47% Austria Index, EWO
0.44% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.40% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.37% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.36% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.36% Australia Index, EWA
0.33% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.33% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.31% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.30% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.28% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.26% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.21% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.21% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.20% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.20% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.20% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.20% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.20% Dividend International, PID
0.18% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.18% Networking, IGN
0.18% France Index, EWQ
0.16% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.16% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.15% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.15% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.15% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.13% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.12% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.12% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.11% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.11% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.10% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.10% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.10% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.10% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.10% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.08% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.08% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.08% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.08% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.08% Belgium Index, EWK
0.08% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.07% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.07% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.07% Spain Index, EWP
0.06% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.06% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.05% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.04% European VIPERs, VGK
0.03% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.02% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.02% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.02% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.01% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.01% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.00% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.00% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.00% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.00% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.00% Energy DJ, IYE
0.00% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.01% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.02% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.03% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.03% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.03% Global 100, IOO
-0.04% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.04% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.04% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.05% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.05% Energy Global, IXC
-0.05% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.06% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.06% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.07% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.07% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.08% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.08% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.08% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.08% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.09% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.09% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.10% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.10% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.10% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.10% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.11% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.12% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.12% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.12% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.14% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.15% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.15% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.16% Italy Index, EWI
-0.16% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.17% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.17% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.19% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.21% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.22% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.22% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.22% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.25% Water Resources, PHO
-0.25% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.25% Canada Index, EWC
-0.26% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.26% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.26% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.27% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.29% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.30% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.36% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.37% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.37% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.53% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.55% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.58% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.59% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.68% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.79% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.90% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.96% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.32% Silver Trust iS, SLV
