Investors Intelligence Sentiment confirms that stock market newsletter advisors are extremely bullish. With only 23.4% Bears, advisors are more bullish than they were at the stock market top in September, 2012, just before a 9% downside correction into November.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, although the 50-200 spread has been narrowing, and the two SMAs are likely to cross bearishly in days ahead.
On 1/9/13, the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose further above its 2012 highs, but the Dow-Jones Industrial Average stubbornly remained below its 2012 highs, thereby demonstrating non confirmation and bearish divergence.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA, thereby turning systematically bullish.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,461.02 ) rose 3.87 points or 0.27% on Wednesday in 1% more active trading. Stocks appear to have stalled out this week. The bullish majority is left to reflect on the meaning of multiple, indecisive Spinning Top Candlesticks and the disappointment of lack of upside follow through after Friday’s unconfirmed closing high for SPX.
The Art of Contrary Thinking calls for questioning popular optimism. Investor sentiment data indicated alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency in recent weeks, matching or exceeding extremes in September, 2012, when many stock price indexes hit peaks and reversed to the downside. Elevated levels of optimism are bearish because when the majority is extremely bullish, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but the market mood always reverts to the mean.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts made gains in 6 of the past 7 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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VIX Fear Index collapsed to 13.22 on 1/9/13 from 23.23 on 12/28/12. This indicates a rapid shift to bullish complacency from worried concern. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1467.94, high of 1/4/13
1464.02, high of 10/18/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1414.72, 50-day SMA
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1392.13, 200-day SMA
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically neutral again on 1/8/13 when whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA and a 6-months long downtrend line. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 1/4/13. DBA turned systematically neutral on 11/30/12 when price crossed back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, although the 50-200 spread has been narrowing, and the two SMAs are likely to cross bearishly in days ahead.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price rose above its highs of the previous 2 months on 1/2/13. USO turned systematically neutral on 12/26/12, when price rose back above its 50-day SMA. USO price fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/20/12. GLD turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. Support: 158.39, 157.40, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 164.14, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish on 12/27/12 when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral on 12/13/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Support 28.61, 27.97, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 30.04, 30.47, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/20/12. SLV/GLD turned systematically neutral on 12/14/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) turned systematically neutral on 12/26/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Long term, JJC has been consolidating losses in Triangle chart pattern trading range between 38.99 and 51.41 for more than a year since October 2011. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
18.60% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
5.28% , HSP , HOSPIRA
10.14% , SVU , SUPERVALU
7.04% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
3.68% , DHR , DANAHER
4.06% , PKI , PERKINELMER
1.62% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
4.29% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
3.95% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
2.62% , TYC , TYCO INTL
1.28% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.35% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.09% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
0.30% , VTV , Value VIPERs, VTV
2.63% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
1.62% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.45% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
1.11% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
3.64% , HAR , Harman International
2.57% , WAT , WATERS
2.48% , SYK , STRYKER
3.45% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
2.70% , A , AGILENT TECH
2.20% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
3.35% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
1.86% , AGN , ALLERGAN
0.55% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
1.85% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
1.01% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.27% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
3.41% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
0.53% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
2.05% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.98% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
-7.76% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-1.78% , SYY , SYSCO
-4.59% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-2.64% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
-4.91% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-3.92% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-3.27% , FHN , First Horizon National
-3.83% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-1.78% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
-2.25% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-0.30% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.59% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
-0.34% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-0.99% , C , CITIGROUP
-0.87% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-0.13% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.68% , YHOO , YAHOO
-0.53% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-1.04% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-0.83% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-0.17% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.05% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-1.03% , CMA , COMERICA
-0.57% , PCAR , PACCAR
-1.21% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-0.13% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
-1.35% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-0.64% , GLW , CORNING
-1.62% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-0.46% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-1.07% , VFC , VF
-0.22% , AA , ALCOA
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.00% Spain Index, EWP
1.62% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.62% Italy Index, EWI
1.37% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.35% Japan Index, EWJ
1.35% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.32% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.28% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.14% Mexico Index, EWW
1.10% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.08% China 25 iS, FXI
1.01% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.01% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.99% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.96% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.96% Singapore Index, EWS
0.90% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.90% Water Resources, PHO
0.89% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.88% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.87% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.76% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.72% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.71% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.71% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.69% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.68% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.68% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.68% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.67% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.65% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.65% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.64% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.63% Australia Index, EWA
0.62% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.61% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.61% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.60% Global 100, IOO
0.60% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.59% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.58% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.56% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.54% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.54% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.53% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.53% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.51% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.51% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.49% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.49% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.48% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.46% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.45% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.45% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.44% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.44% Dividend International, PID
0.43% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.43% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.43% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.42% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.39% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.38% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.38% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.38% India PS, PIN
0.38% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.37% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.37% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.35% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.35% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.34% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.34% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.34% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.33% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.32% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.31% European VIPERs, VGK
0.31% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.30% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.30% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.29% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.29% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.28% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.28% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.28% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.28% Canada Index, EWC
0.27% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.27% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.26% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.25% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.25% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.25% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.25% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.24% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.24% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.23% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.21% Networking, IGN
0.21% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.21% Energy Global, IXC
0.21% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.19% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.18% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.17% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.17% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.17% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.15% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.11% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.10% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.09% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.07% Belgium Index, EWK
0.06% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.05% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.04% Germany Index, EWG
0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.02% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.03% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.04% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.05% Austria Index, EWO
-0.06% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.06% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.07% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.08% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.08% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.09% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.09% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.10% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.13% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.14% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.15% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.15% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.16% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.17% Russia MV, RSX
-0.17% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.20% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.23% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.23% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.24% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.24% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.24% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.30% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.34% France Index, EWQ
-0.49% Indonesia MV, IDX
