U.S. stock indexes remain in short-term, minor uptrends. Prices were choppy for most of the day on Friday before turning higher in the final hour. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,680.19) finished higher by 0.31%. The next SPX resistance is at 1,687.18, the SPX intraday high of 5/22/2013.

The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE rose further above its 50-day SMA but remains well below its May high.

The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE turned down slightly and remains above its 50-day SMA and below its May high.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory confirmed a Secondary Reaction on 6/21/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average both closed below their price lows of the previous 7 weeks. Previously, on 5/28/13, the Dow Theory warned of a non-confirmation, bearish divergence when the Industrial Average rose to a higher high without confirmation by the Transportation Average, which made a lower high–and that exact same thing happened again on 7/12/13. A Secondary Reaction is often significant in extent and duration, possibly retracing a substantial fraction of the previous move over a period lasting several months.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically neutral again (from bearish) on 7/10/13, when it crossed back up above its own 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 12-year high on 7/12/13 to confirm its 4-year uptrend.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 years on 7/9/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. The EFA/SPY 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) remains systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising bond prices, however. An oversold bounce seems overdue after an unusually persistent selling wave since the first day of May. Support 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 114.77, 118.94, 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 6/24/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Like the long bond, TLT, the 33-year trend is pointing upward for IEF price, and an oversold bounce seems overdue. Support 100.31, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 107.62, 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been systematically bullish since 5/3/13, when the ratio crossed above its 50-day SMA. Absolute price of JNK turned bearish on 7/5/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 5/6/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of TIP peaked at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and turned systematically bearish on 5/3/13.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 7/11/13, thereby turning systematically neutral. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 2 years on 7/5/13 and remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price broke out above its highs of the previous 14 months on 7/10/13 and is in a bullish trend. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.64, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been down trending since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/26/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. The JJC price trend has been bearish since price peaked at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.01% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.30% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
0.65% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
5.36% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
3.82% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
2.70% , XLNX , XILINX
3.65% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
0.81% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
2.60% , NE , NOBLE
0.35% , IGV , Software, IGV
0.59% , CLX , CLOROX
0.92% , SEE , SEALED AIR
1.32% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
2.00% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
1.66% , BC , BRUNSWICK
0.38% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
2.00% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
0.50% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
0.79% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
2.67% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
0.61% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
1.19% , BBY , BEST BUY
1.72% , ADSK , AUTODESK
0.97% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
2.63% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
0.54% , AEE , AMEREN
0.27% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
1.06% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
1.83% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
0.49% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
0.83% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
0.16% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.33% , CHD , Church & Dwight
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.69% , BA , BOEING
-10.17% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-5.83% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
-3.01% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-1.91% , ORCL , ORACLE
-0.91% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.45% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
-0.64% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.37% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.99% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-2.10% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
-0.56% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.47% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.34% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-2.02% , FDX , FEDEX
-0.62% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-1.12% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
-0.36% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-3.29% , X , US STEEL CORP
-1.42% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
-0.74% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
-1.19% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.86% , MOLX , MOLEX
-3.30% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-0.31% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
-1.07% , MAR , MARRIOTT INTL STK A
-0.07% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-0.45% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
-0.08% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.06% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.10% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
-0.56% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
-0.17% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.01% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.49% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.07% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.01% , Networking, IGN
0.98% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.86% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.69% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.65% , Austria Index, EWO
0.65% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.61% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.61% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.60% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.60% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.56% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.55% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.47% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.46% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.44% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.38% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.38% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.34% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.33% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.32% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.32% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.31% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.31% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.30% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.28% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.28% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.28% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.27% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.26% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.26% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.26% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.25% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.24% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.24% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.23% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.22% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.21% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.20% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.20% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.19% , Russia MV, RSX
0.18% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.18% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.17% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.16% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.16% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.15% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.15% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.14% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.12% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.12% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.12% , India PS, PIN
0.12% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.11% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.09% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.09% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.09% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.09% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.09% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.08% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.08% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.06% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.05% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.04% , Water Resources, PHO
0.04% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.04% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.04% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.03% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.02% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.02% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.04% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.06% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.08% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.08% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.08% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.09% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.10% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.10% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.11% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.12% , Dividend International, PID
-0.14% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.17% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.18% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.19% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.25% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.28% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.33% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.33% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.34% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.35% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.36% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.37% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.45% , Global 100, IOO
-0.46% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.47% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.48% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.50% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.51% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.54% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.55% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.56% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.58% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.60% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.61% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.63% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.63% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.64% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.65% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.66% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.70% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.71% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.73% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.76% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.82% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.89% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.90% , France Index, EWQ
-0.91% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.91% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.95% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.96% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.99% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.05% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.05% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.06% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-1.18% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.19% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.22% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.32% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.32% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.34% , Singapore Index, EWS
-1.41% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.44% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.45% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.47% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.51% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.57% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.75% , China 25 iS, FXI
-2.92% , Italy Index, EWI
-3.01% , Spain Index, EWP
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1674.21, high of 5/28/2013
1660.03, Fib 78.6% of May-June 2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1632.92, 50-day SMA
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1518.84, 200-day SMA
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009