The stock market is showing positive action again this morning and we think that highlights a prevailing bullish attitude. While the Easter holiday isn’t typically a holiday that can be preceded by a noted run up in prices off a surge in euphoria, it is possible that the pre-holiday environment might add something extra to the minor upward bias already in place from the strength in international equity markets overnight. With some in the market also seeing the better than expected earnings results from Bed Bath & Beyond yesterday as a positive sign for the economy as a whole that would seem to point to an interest in the retail sector earnings news that is scheduled to be released later today. While the markets hope to get something positive from the discounters (Costco already posted a 5% same stores sales decline), it could take some other fresh positive to put the market in a position to attempt a run back toward this week’s highs.
S&P 500: The S&P had its typical 2-3 day corrective setback and that typically puts the market into a very positive technical position to rally. When one considers the amount of negative news that the market was hit with early in the week it would be very impressive to see the stock market actually finish the week at or around its highs. While we don’t expect a big holiday lift, the tone of the day is likely to be set by the headline developments flowing from Wal-Mart sales. We think the bulls have a modest edge over the bear camp today. Initial resistance is seen up at 833.40 and then again up at 835.50.
DOW: With the Mini Down taking out the prior session’s highs in the early action today, it would seem like favorable retail earnings, news of US aid to US auto parts makers and reports that GM has several bidders for its Hummer division would seem to be more than enough positive news to leave the overnight bullish bias in place into the US trade. Initial resistance in the June Mini Dow is seen up at 7,943 and then again up at 8,000. Perhaps the most limiting force to a 8,000 June Mini Dow trade today will be waning trading volume ahead of the long weekend holiday.
NASDAQ: With the June Nasdaq already managing a climb back above the 1300 level and the market seemingly anticipating something positive from further retailing data today, it is difficult to take control of the market away from the bull camp today. Unfortunately Costco has already posted a decline early today and that could begin to take off some of the bullish edge. On the other hand, some analysts are suggesting the timing of Easter has influenced the data. At least in the early going one has to favor the bull camp and in turn concede to solid close-in support at the 1300 level.