Consumer Discretionary stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs and remains bullish. XLY has been at the top of my sector rankings for more than a year and has outperformed substantially.
Utilities stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 5-month lows and remains bearish.
iShares Russell 1000 Growth/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/SPY) rose above 19-month highs again and remains bullish.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 20-year highs and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs and remains bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows. The ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
Crude Oil moved above 6-day highs, confirming a bullish trend for the short term. Longer term, Oil rose above 2-year highs on 11/11/10, again reconfirming a bullish major trend.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,198.35) rose 17.62 points or 1.49% on Wednesday, again demonstrating impressive bullish resilience. SPX gained more than it lost on Tuesday, when it was shaken by the news of the North Korea attack. The stock market also has handled news of the European debt crisis with resilience in recent weeks. SPX over the past 3 weeks appears to be merely correcting and consolidating previous large gains, which is normal and natural in a bull market. SPX has been holding above key Simple Moving Averages: the 50-day SMA, now at 1174.77 and rising, and the 200-day SMA, now at 1132.99 and rising. Longer term, SPX rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10, again reconfirming a bullish major trend.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.48% , PZJ , SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
3.42% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
1.79% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
2.70% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
1.56% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
1.50% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
1.89% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
2.30% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
1.79% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
2.08% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
2.19% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
2.30% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
4.65% , CBE , COOPER INDS STK A
2.63% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
2.49% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
1.24% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
2.11% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
5.38% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
2.02% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
5.25% , TIF , TIFFANY
0.99% , NY , Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
2.61% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
1.84% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
2.78% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.51% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
0.69% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
4.45% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
3.78% , COH , COACH
1.74% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
2.95% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
2.30% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.44% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
2.21% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
4.10% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
3.32% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
1.66% , Q , QWEST COMMUNICAT
0.87% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
2.17% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
3.43% , SPLS , STAPLES
1.46% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.28% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-1.07% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.48% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-1.79% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.17% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.47% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-0.14% , DE , DEERE & CO
-0.27% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.53% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-1.52% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-0.53% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.28% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
-0.10% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-0.25% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-0.25% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-0.08% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-0.14% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
-0.12% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 11/24/10 and remains bullish. XLY has been at the top of my sector rankings for more than a year and has outperformed substantially. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 38.25 and 39.09.
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 10-month highs on 11/19/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/11/10 and remains bullish. Support 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 63.89, 69.95 and 78.10.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) fell below 10-week lows on 11/11/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 33.53, 35.00, and 36.16.
Technology (XLK) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/22/10 and turned bullish again. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 25.28 and 25.69.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 2-week lows on 11/16/10 and turned neutral. Absolute price rose above rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 36.71, 37.56, and 39.00.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below 5-month lows on 11/10/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 28.31, 28.28, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.27, 29.29 and 30.29.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 6-month lows on 11/10/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV rose above 6-month highs on 11/4/10 and is now bullish. Support 30.40, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 31.73, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 5-month lows on 11/24/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU fell below 9-week lows on 11/23/10. Support 30.76, 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.11 and 32.40.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 18-month lows on 11/23/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLF fell below 9-week lows on 11/23/10, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Support 14.25, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 15.68, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below 7-week lows and remains neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below 13-week lows and remains neutral.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 11/2/10 and remains bullish for the long term. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/8/10 and remains bullish. The ratio has been in an uptrend for nearly 2 years, since 12/2/08.
iShares Russell 1000 Growth/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/SPY) rose above 19-month highs again on 11/24/10 and remains bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 11/24/10. The ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 20-year highs on 11/24/10 and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 11/24/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/24/10 and remains bullish.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price moved above 6-day highs on 11/24/10, confirming a bullish trend for the short term. Longer term, Oil rose above 2-year highs on 11/11/10, again reconfirming a bullish major trend. Support 80.28, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 84.92, 88.63, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price rose above 6-day highs on 11/23/10, again confirming that minor selling pressure may have abated for the short term. Longer term, Gold rose above previous all-time highs on 11/9/10, again confirming the bullish major trend. Support 1332.9, 1329.0, 1315.6, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1424.3.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 11-month highs on 11/22/10 and remains bullish.
Silver nearest futures contract price rose above 7-day highs on 11/22/10, confirming a reversal of the previous minor price pullback for the short term. Silver rose above previous 30-year highs on 11/9/10, confirming a bullish major trend.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 2-year highs on 11/22/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price over the past 2 weeks appears to be consolidating previous large gains. Longer term, Copper rose above previous 2-year highs on 11/11/10, again confirming the bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.90, 4.0825, and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price over the past 2 weeks appears to be consolidating previous losses. The bond fell below the lows of the previous 4 months on 11/15/10, confirming the preexisting bearish trend for the intermediate-term trend. Support 125.15, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 129.03, 129.27, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below 5-week lows on 11/23/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price fell below 8-week lows on 11/23/10 and is now neutral.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) sagged lower since 10/26/10, which implies that fixed-income investors actually have been choosing less inflation protection, contrary to those voices warning of inflation recently.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price moved further above the previous 7-weeks highs on 11/24/10. The short-term trend has been up since the low on 11/3/10. Longer term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish long-term price trend. Support 78.06, 75.235, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 80.505, 82.335, 83.315, 83.64, 83.96, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 56.2% Bulls versus 20.2% Bears as of 11/17/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 2.78, which is between one and two standard deviations above the long-term mean. This is not overly excessive bullish sentiment in the second year of a bull market. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.54, and the mean is 1.61.
VIX Fear Index fell to 17.76 on 11/19/10 from 23.07 on 11/16/10. A relatively low and falling VIX indicates increasing bullish confidence and decreasing concern and hesitancy by options players to chase price strength. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 11/3/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 25 months. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. Many other analysts were fooled into calling “Bear Market” by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010, but my interpretation has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Trend.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,198.35) rose 17.62 points or 1.49% on Wednesday, again demonstrating impressive bullish resilience. SPX gained more than it lost on Tuesday, when it was shaken by the news of the North Korea attack. The stock market also has handled news of the European debt crisis with resilience in recent weeks. SPX over the past 3 weeks appears to be merely correcting and consolidating previous large gains, which is normal and natural in a bull market. SPX has been holding above key Simple Moving Averages: the 50-day SMA, now at 1174.77 and rising, and the 200-day SMA, now at 1132.99 and rising. Longer term, SPX rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10, again reconfirming a bullish major trend.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.57% South Korea Index, EWY
3.23% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
3.05% Mexico Index, EWW
2.78% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.78% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.57% Australia Index, EWA
2.53% Latin Am 40, ILF
2.52% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.51% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
2.51% Russia MV, RSX
2.47% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.46% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.46% Brazil Index, EWZ
2.36% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.36% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
2.31% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
2.31% Emerging Markets, EEM
2.30% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
2.30% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
2.26% Industrial SPDR, XLI
2.26% Water Resources, PHO
2.25% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
2.22% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
2.22% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
2.22% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
2.22% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
2.21% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
2.21% Microcap Russell, IWC
2.20% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.18% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
2.17% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2.14% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
2.06% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
2.04% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
2.02% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
2.01% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
2.00% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
2.00% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.99% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.99% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.96% Canada Index, EWC
1.93% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.93% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.93% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.93% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.89% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.89% Singapore Index, EWS
1.88% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.88% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.86% Networking, IGN
1.83% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.80% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.80% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.80% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.79% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.78% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.76% Japan Index, EWJ
1.75% Sweden Index, EWD
1.74% South Africa Index, EZA
1.73% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.73% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
1.72% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.72% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.72% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.71% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
1.69% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.68% China 25 iS, FXI
1.67% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.66% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.61% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.61% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.60% Energy DJ, IYE
1.59% Germany Index, EWG
1.59% EAFE Index, EFA
1.59% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.58% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.57% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.55% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.55% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.54% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.53% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.51% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.50% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.49% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.48% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.48% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.47% Energy Global, IXC
1.46% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.44% India PS, PIN
1.43% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.39% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.39% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.39% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.37% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.37% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.33% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.32% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.31% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.30% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.29% European VIPERs, VGK
1.28% Dividend International, PID
1.26% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.26% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.23% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.21% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
1.19% Global 100, IOO
1.16% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.15% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.06% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.01% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.93% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.89% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.86% Spain Index, EWP
0.78% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.77% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.68% Italy Index, EWI
0.60% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.60% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.60% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.59% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.56% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.55% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.55% France Index, EWQ
0.54% Belgium Index, EWK
0.51% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.45% Austria Index, EWO
0.36% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.28% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.17% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.17% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.26% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.27% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.48% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.53% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.53% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.82% Bond, Corp, LQD
-1.07% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.79% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
