The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,257.60) fell 0.43% on Friday. In addition, SPX finished lower for the week and for the year 2011. SPX crossed back below its widely-followed 200-day SMA (now at 1258.82). The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11, suggesting a persistent Bear trend for the longer term.

The previous week’s bounce left stocks overbought, and my short-term momentum indicators gave clear bearish divergence warnings of a downside reversal on Monday, 12/27/11.

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price rose above the highs of the previous 6 trading days on 12/30/11 after finding support at its 50-day SMA on 12/27/11.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) crossed back below its 50-day SMA on 12/30/11. JNK/LQD remains below its falling 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 12-week lows on 12/30/11, confirming its downtrend.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) closed below the closing price lows of the previous 5 trading days on 12/30/11.
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1269.37, high of 12/27/2011
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1258.82, 200-day SMA

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) closed higher for the week, for the month, and for the quarter. UUP rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/14/11 and rose above its 200-day SMA on 11/9/11. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 22.31, 21.97, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.70, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) closed higher last week but appears overbought thanks to a minor 6-day bounce. Price fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/16/11, again confirming a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) closed below the closing price lows of the previous 5 trading days on 12/30/11. As of 12/27/11, USO had bounced to the upper end of its 6-week trading range, reaching a peak of 39.21, where I figured it might find resistance. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/14/11. Support 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.21, 39.74, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 12/29/11, confirming a bearish trend. On 12/12/11, I warned that a break below the low at 165.53 set on 12/6/11 would be bearish. GLD remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 157.53, 162.07, 165.53, 170.80, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) remains bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 3-year lows on 12/19/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below the lows of the previous 11 months on 12/29/11. SLV remains bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. SLV crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/8/11 and crossed below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.65 and 24.44. Resistance: 28.99, 32.53, 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/28/11, confirming a bearish trend. SLV/GLD remains bearishly below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) remains below its 200-day SMA and crossed back below its 50-day SMA on 12/27/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.95% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
2.78% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
4.61% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
3.08% , X , US STEEL CORP
0.21% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
0.40% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.66% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
1.57% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
1.35% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
0.26% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.56% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
0.50% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
2.09% , PWER , POWER ONE
0.55% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
0.79% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
2.13% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
1.89% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
0.35% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
1.12% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
1.53% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
0.51% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
1.16% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
1.34% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
0.56% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
1.30% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
0.77% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
1.55% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
0.41% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
1.13% , BBY , BEST BUY
0.32% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.44% , WMB , WILLIAMS
0.70% , OMC , OMNICOM
0.31% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.65% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-0.92% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-2.12% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
-3.23% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
-1.32% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-1.63% , NE , NOBLE
-0.28% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
-1.93% , AET , AETNA
-0.90% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-2.22% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-2.14% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-0.51% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.55% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.73% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-0.19% , PPH , Pharmaceutical H, PPH
-1.25% , CHD , Church & Dwight
-0.42% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
-0.72% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-2.42% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
-0.60% , MDY , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-2.06% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-0.71% , WPO , Washington Post
-0.41% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
-0.45% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-1.12% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
-1.78% , AMP , Ameriprise Financial Inc.
-0.38% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.46% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-0.92% , CVS , CVS
-1.58% , ITT , ITT INDS
-1.01% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-0.31% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
-1.21% , PIN , India PS, PIN
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.57% Canada Index, EWC
1.56% Russia MV, RSX
1.10% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.91% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.83% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.77% Japan Index, EWJ
0.69% Dividend International, PID
0.58% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.54% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.52% Germany Index, EWG
0.52% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.49% EAFE Index, EFA
0.48% South Africa Index, EZA
0.48% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.47% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.45% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.45% Energy Global, IXC
0.44% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.44% Sweden Index, EWD
0.44% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.42% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.42% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.42% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.40% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.40% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.39% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.38% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.38% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.36% Spain Index, EWP
0.35% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.35% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.32% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.32% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.31% European VIPERs, VGK
0.31% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.31% France Index, EWQ
0.31% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.30% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.29% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.28% Austria Index, EWO
0.26% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.26% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.23% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.16% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.14% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.14% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.13% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.11% South Korea Index, EWY
0.11% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.08% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.06% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.06% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.06% China 25 iS, FXI
0.06% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.01% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.00% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.03% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.04% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.05% Australia Index, EWA
-0.05% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.05% Global 100, IOO
-0.06% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.08% Italy Index, EWI
-0.11% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.13% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.13% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.13% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.15% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.17% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.20% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.26% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.28% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.29% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.29% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.29% Networking, IGN
-0.31% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.31% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.33% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.35% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.36% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.36% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.37% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.37% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.38% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.39% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.41% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.42% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.42% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.43% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.43% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.43% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.43% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.44% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.44% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.45% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.45% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.46% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.46% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.46% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.46% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.47% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.47% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.47% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.47% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.47% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.48% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.49% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.49% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.49% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.51% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.53% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.53% Water Resources, PHO
-0.54% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.54% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.54% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.55% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.55% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.56% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.56% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.60% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.61% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.62% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.63% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.64% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.67% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.68% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.70% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.72% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.72% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.75% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.78% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.83% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.85% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.87% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.89% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.91% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.91% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.93% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.95% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.21% India PS, PIN