The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,249.64) closed below the lows of the previous 2 trading days and fell below its 200-day SMA (now at 1258.87) on 12/28/11. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11, suggesting a persistent Bear trend for the longer term.
Stocks were overbought, and my short-term momentum indicators gave a clear bearish divergence warning of a downside reversal, as noted here yesterday.
NYSE trading volume rose 17% to confirm the price downtrend.
Technology stock sector price fell below its 50-day SMA and has been trending down since peaking at 27.09 on 2/18/11.
Energy stock sector price fell below its 50-day SMA and has been correcting and consolidating since peaking at 80.97 on 3/31/11.
Materials stock sector price fell below its 50-day SMA and has been correcting and consolidating since peaking at 41.28 on 4/6/11.
Financial stock sector price fell below its 50-day SMA and has been correcting and consolidating since peaking at 17.20 on 2/18/11.
NASDAQ Composite price fell below its 50-day SMA, remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price rose above the highs of the previous 4 trading days after finding support at its 50-day SMA on 12/27/11.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the highs of the previous 5 trading days.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) reversed to the downside following a bounce within its major downtrend over the prior 6 trading days.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below the lows of the previous 3 trading days.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 5 weeks.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below the lows of the previous 11 months.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 14 months.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below the lows of the previous 3 trading days.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory signaled either an upward Secondary Reaction bounce or Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/23/11, when both Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages closed above their closing price highs of the previous 144 calendar days. This appears to be one of those junctures when interpretation of the Dow Theory could be open to debate. Significantly, these higher highs were NOT confirmed by the broad-based, capitalization-weighted price indexes. And given that Friday 12/23/11 was a low-volume day with many investors taking off for holidays, there may be some probability of a false signal. Let’s wait for broader confirmation before making any big changes.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 6-months on 12/23/11. The Ratio has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite fell below its 50-day SMA on 12/28/11, remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 12/28/11. BKF/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 12/28/11. EEM/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 years on 12/28/11. EFA/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/14/11.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 12/19/11 and has been in a rising trend since 11/4/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has been correcting and consolidating since peaking on 4/5/11. Short term, IWM/SPY firmed modestly from 10/3/11 to 10/27/11 but has stalled out in more recent weeks. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/11/11.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 12/14/11 and has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/24/11.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 70.5% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 29.5% Bears as of 12/28/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.
VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 5-months on 12/22/11, hitting 20.34 intraday. That is down from recent peaks of 30.91 on 12/8/11, 37.83 on 11/1/11, 46.88 on 10/4/11, and 48.00 on 8/8/11. This drop indicates a shift away from fear and toward confidence, which, according to Humphrey Bancroft Neill’s Art of Contrary Thinking, may be bearish. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1269.37, high of 12/27/2011
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1258.87, 200-day SMA
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price rose above the highs of the previous 4 trading days on 12/28/11 after finding support at its 50-day SMA on 12/27/11. TLT remains in bullish position above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistent Bull trend. Support 117.62, 115.80, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 124.02 and 125.03.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price rose above the highs of the previous 4 trading days on 12/28/11 after finding support above its 50-day SMA on 12/27/11,. IEF remains in bullish position above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistent Bull trend. Support 104.25, 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 105.68 and 106.66.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell $0.64 and broke below 5-day lows on 12/28/11–but most of that drop was due to the stock trading ex-dividend of $0.483 per share. Adjusting for this, the trend has remained choppy/sideways since making a low on 10/4/11, when it broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has turned choppy/sideways since making a low on 9/30/11. TIP/IEF remains below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the highs of the previous 5 trading days on 12/28/11. UUP rose above the highs of the previous 10 months on 12/14/11, again confirming its preexisting bullish trend. UUP rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/14/11 and rose above its 200-day SMA on 11/9/11. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 22.31, 21.97, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.70, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) reversed to the downside on 12/28/11 following a bounce within its major downtrend over the prior 6 trading days. Price fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/16/11, again confirming a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below the lows of the previous 3 trading days on 12/28/11. As of 12/27/11, USO had bounced up to the upper end of its 6-week trading range, where I figured it might find resistance. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/14/11. Support 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.21, 39.74, 40.74, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 5 weeks on 12/28/11, confirming a bearish trend. Price fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 12/15/11. On 12/12/11, I warned that a break below the low at 165.53 set on 12/6/11 would be bearish. GLD remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Support: 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 157.53, 162.07, 165.53, 170.80, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) remains bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below the lows of the previous 11 months on 12/28/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. SLV remains bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. SLV crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/8/11 and crossed below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 27.70, 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 28.99, 32.53, 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/28/11, confirming a bearish trend. SLV/GLD remains bearishly below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below the lows of the previous 3 trading days on 12/28/11. JJC gapped sharply lower on 12/27/11, leaving behind a bearish Island Reversal. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA and crossed back below its 50-day SMA on 12/27/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.43% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
1.67% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
1.09% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
2.25% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
1.85% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
2.31% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.17% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
2.45% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.65% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
0.21% , HAR , Harman International
1.20% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.28% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
0.81% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
0.63% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.27% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
0.22% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
0.02% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.18% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.44% , KSS , KOHLS
0.57% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
0.03% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
0.27% , AN , AUTONATION
0.26% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.16% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
0.02% , RTN , RAYTHEON
0.11% , ALTR , ALTERA
0.05% , SLE , SARA LEE
0.14% , JCP , JC PENNEY
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.65% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-3.72% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.12% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.45% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-5.74% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-3.48% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.70% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.39% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-1.48% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-3.86% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-3.18% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-3.50% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
-0.90% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-2.50% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.75% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-2.20% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-2.32% , DLX , DELUXE
-2.06% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-1.75% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-4.62% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-1.95% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.96% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-4.20% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-3.85% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-1.57% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.99% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-1.75% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-1.20% , VIG , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.01% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-3.00% , PCAR , PACCAR
-1.25% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-2.09% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.93% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.85% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.20% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.63% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.26% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.18% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.17% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.08% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.14% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.17% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.36% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.47% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.49% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.58% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.63% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.64% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.75% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.85% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.91% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.94% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.96% Dividend International, PID
-0.98% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.01% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.01% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.02% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.04% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.05% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.06% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.08% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-1.09% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.09% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.12% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.12% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.14% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.16% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.16% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.17% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.18% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.20% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.20% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.20% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.20% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.21% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.22% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.23% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.23% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.23% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.25% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.26% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.26% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.26% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.27% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.27% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.31% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.32% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.34% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.36% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.37% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.37% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.38% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.40% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.41% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.44% India PS, PIN
-1.45% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.48% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.51% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.52% Global 100, IOO
-1.52% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.52% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.53% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.56% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.56% Canada Index, EWC
-1.57% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.57% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.58% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.58% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.58% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.61% Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.62% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.62% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.63% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.64% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-1.65% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.67% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.68% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.68% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.69% Austria Index, EWO
-1.70% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.71% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.71% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.71% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.72% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.72% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.75% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.75% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.76% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.77% Networking, IGN
-1.78% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.79% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.79% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.80% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.80% Energy Global, IXC
-1.81% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.82% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.84% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.84% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.85% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.85% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.89% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.91% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.93% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.95% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.97% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.97% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.98% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-2.01% Russia MV, RSX
-2.06% Water Resources, PHO
-2.09% Italy Index, EWI
-2.09% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.09% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.11% France Index, EWQ
-2.12% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-2.12% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.16% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-2.18% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.22% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-2.39% Materials SPDR, XLB
-2.42% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-2.50% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.64% Germany Index, EWG
-2.65% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.70% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.81% Spain Index, EWP
-2.94% Australia Index, EWA
-3.48% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-3.72% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-5.74% Silver Trust iS, SLV
