Energy Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below 12-week lows on 3/15/10 and remains bearish. In contrast, absolute price of XLE moved above 7-week highs on 3/12/10 and remains in bullish relative to 50- and 200-day simple moving averages.
Although major indexes finished narrowly mixed, typical of a normal consolidation day, On Balance Volume for the SPY ETF rose to another new high.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
8.16% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
6.31% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
3.90% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
4.26% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
3.41% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
2.82% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
3.07% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
4.03% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
1.57% , ASH , ASHLAND
0.42% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
2.45% , FO , FORTUNE BRANDS
1.32% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
1.61% , PEP , PEPSICO
1.58% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
1.56% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
1.15% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
0.91% , MKC , MCCORMICK
0.26% , SWH , Software H, SWH
0.68% , TMK , TORCHMARK
0.69% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
1.25% , Q , QWEST COMMUNICAT
1.35% , FAST , Fastenal Company
1.19% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
0.97% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
0.68% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
1.24% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
0.72% , EFX , EQUIFAX
1.18% , GPS , GAP
0.58% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
1.52% , HSP , HOSPIRA
1.19% , EBAY , EBAY
1.41% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
0.76% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
0.54% , FISV , FISERV
0.24% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
0.26% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
0.43% , AYE , ALLEGHENY ENERGY
1.01% , RAI , RJR TOBACCO HLDS
1.49% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
1.38% , KSS , KOHLS
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-12.60% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-1.15% , BDK , BLACK & DECKER
-0.97% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-4.61% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-4.62% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
-2.63% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
-0.56% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.25% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-0.57% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-3.72% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-2.97% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-0.76% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-2.82% , GOOG , Google
-0.60% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-0.38% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-1.22% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
-1.04% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-1.49% , HAS , HASBRO
-0.79% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.72% , ALL , ALLSTATE
-2.61% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-0.55% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-3.06% , EP , EL PASO
-1.35% , HES , AMERADA HESS
-0.52% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
-0.27% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-1.37% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.27% , CAR , Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)
-2.24% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-0.25% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.19% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.61% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.94% , AMGN , AMGEN
-0.76% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.74% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-0.33% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.63% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-2.39% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
-1.34% , FHN , FIRST TENNESSEE
-1.11% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 4-year highs on 3/12/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY rose above 17-month highs on 3/12/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.66, 30.99, 29.90, 29.25, 28.66, 28.21 and 26.62. Resistance 32.63 and 33.76.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose further above 14-month highs on 3/12/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI moved above 16-month highs on 3/12/10 and remains bullish. Support 29.60, 28.15, 27.28, 26.66 and 25.20. Resistance 30.56 and 32.00.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) has been consolidating below 50- and 200-day simple moving averages since 2/19/10. Absolute price rose above 6-week highs on 3/12/10 and remains bullish. Support 22.52, 21.30, 20.71, 20.46 and 20.09. Resistance 22.96, and 23.05.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 9-week lows on 3/12/10 and remains below 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of XLV appears to be consolidating slightly above its moving averages. Support 31.46, 31.00, 30.27, 30.65 and 29.55. Resistance 32.13, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) has been consolidating below 50- and 200-day simple moving averages since 1/21/10. Absolute price of XLB rose above 7-week highs on 3/12/10 and remains bullish. Support 32.58, 30.79, 29.48, 28.95 and 28.67. Resistance 33.73 and 34.52.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) turned bearish on 3/9/10 when it fell below its 50-day simple moving average. XLP/SPY remains below its 200, and the 50 is below the 200 SMA. Absolute price of XLP has been consolidating since closing above 16-month highs on 3/5/10, and moving average analysis of price remains bullish. Support 27.23, 26.82, 26.49, 26.04, 25.93 and 25.71. Resistance 27.62, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose further above 4-month highs on 3/11/10. Although XLF/SPY is above both moving averages, the 50 remains below the 200, reflecting a 3-year downtrend. Absolute price of XLF closed above 5-month highs on 3/11/10, and moving average analysis of XLF price remains bullish. Support 15.12, 14.33, 13.95, 13.51 and 13.08. Resistance 15.76 and 16.53.
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below 12-week lows on 3/15/10 and remains bearish. In contrast, absolute price of XLE moved above 7-week highs on 3/12/10 and remains in bullish relative to 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Support 56.84, 54.72, 52.67 and 51.34. Resistance 59.90 and 60.87.
Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell further below 2-year lows on 3/12/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU remains neutral, stuck between its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Support 28.45 and 28.10. Resistance 30.13, 31.30, 31.64 and 32.08.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) remains bearish, below both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is below the 200. But absolute price of EEM remains bullish, above both moving averages, and the 50 is above the 200.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains bearish, but absolute price of EFA rose to a 7-week high on 3/12/10 and remains bullish. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it is best to stand aside.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 3/10/10 and remains in bullish position above rising 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is above the 200. Absolute price of the NASDAQ rose above 18-month highs on 3/11/10 and also is in bullish position relative to moving averages.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) has performed choppy/sideways/neutral for most of the past 12 months, since March 2009, and that trend appears to be continuing. Longer term, IWF/IWD has been mostly bullish since 8/8/06. Absolute price of IWF rose above 18-month highs on 3/11/10 and is bullish.
Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) has performed choppy/sideways/neutral most of the time over the past 12 months. Longer term, IWD/SPY has been bearish most of the time since 3/22/07, and we assume that long-term trends continue–until proved otherwise. Absolute price of IWD rose above 17-month highs on 3/11/10 and is bullish.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above previous 6-year highs on 3/10/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP rose above 18-month highs on 3/12/10 and remains bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) broke down below the lows of the previous 20 months on 3/10/10. OEX/SPX remains bearish below its falling 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is below the 200. Conflicting with this bearish Relative Strength trend, absolute price of OEX remains bullish relative to its moving averages.
The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 17-month highs on 3/10/10. Absolute price of IWM rose further above 17-month highs on 3/10/10. Both remain in bullish position relative to key moving averages.
The Mid Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 3/12/10 and remains bullish. In addition, absolute price of MDY rose above 15-month highs on 3/12/10 and remains bullish.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price broke down below the lows of the previous 8 trading days on 3/15/10, which might be taken as a warning of a short-term correction. Oil remains in strong position above 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, however, so it may be premature to turn bearish. Support 80.16, 77.05, 76.71, 72.60, 69.50, 68.59 and 65.05. Resistance 83.95, 85.82 and 98.65.
Gold nearest futures contract price sagged below 10-day lows on 3/12/10 and remains slightly below its 50-day simple moving average. This after rising above 6-week highs on 3/3/10. Gold remains above its 200-day simple moving average, and the 50 remains comfortably above the 200. Support 1088.5, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance 1145.8, 1163.0, 1170.2, 1196.8 and 1226.4.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) remains neutral, between 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of GDX also is neutral. The gold mining stocks have underperformed gold bullion since 9/17/09.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above its 50-day simple moving average on 3/5/10 but remains below its 200-day simple moving average. The 50 is below the 200. Mixed indications from the Silver/Gold Ratio implies some uncertainty about prospects for the world economy.
Copper nearest futures contract price broke down below the lows of the previous 8 trading days on 3/15/10, which might be taken as a warning of a short-term correction. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 3.1505, 3.034, 2.811, 2.64 and 2.4575. Resistance 3.4665, 3.47, 3.544, 3.5625, 3.5625, and 3.79.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price has been stuck in a choppy/sideways/neutral trend since its June, 2009, low at 113.04. The Bond currently is above its 50-day simple moving average, below its 200-day simple moving average, and the 50 remains below the 200, reflecting the downtrend since the top at 143.00 set on 12/18/08. Support 115.24, 114.16, 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 118.02, 119.18, 120.11 and 123.18.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) is moderately above key moving averages and so remains bullish. Absolute price of JNK rose above 6-week highs on 3/10/10 and remains bullish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) and absolute price of TIP both remain neutral, stuck between 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Investors appear unconcerned about inflation.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 3-week lows on 3/12/10, which might be taken as a warning of a short-term correction. USD remains in strong position above 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, however, so it may be premature to turn bearish. Support 79.92, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 81.43, 81.795 and 83.335.
The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 44.9% Bulls versus 23.6% Bears as of 3/10/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 1.90, up from 1.85 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio is still well below its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
VIX Fear Index fell to a 6-week low of 17.23 on 3/5/10 and is near the low end of its 2010 range of 16.86 to 29.22. A low and falling VIX suggests bullish complacency. VIX is down from a closing high of 80.86 set on 11/20/08. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
VXN Fear Index fell to a 7-week low of 17.82 on 3/5/10 and is near the lower end of its 2010 range of 17.73 to 29.12. A low and falling VXN suggests bullish complacency. VXN is down from a closing high of 80.64 set on 11/20/08. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.
ISEE Call/Put Ratio has been neutral in recent months: its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which is two standard deviations from the mean.
CBOE Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.43 on 3/9/10, a low level that indicates significant bullish sentiment, which might be taken as a caution sign. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which is two standard deviations from the mean.
The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 1/11/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 14 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 signal reversed the previous signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) rose above 7-week highs on 3/11/10. SPX remains in bullish position above its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 remains well above the 200. Support 1116.11, 1086.02, 1078.46, 1069.97, 1044.50, 1036.31 and 1029.54. Resistance 1158.76 and 1220.03.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1158.76, EW ABC measured move target
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1116.11, high of 3/1/2010
1086.95, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1086.02, low of 2/25/2010
1078.46, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1069.97, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1036.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-2010 range
1029.54, Gann 25.0% of 2009-2010 range
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
969.08, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
965.69, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
908.62, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
851.55, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.41% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.76% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.74% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.66% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.38% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.37% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.37% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.35% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.28% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.28% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.27% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.26% Austria Index, EWO
0.25% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.25% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.24% South Africa Index, EZA
0.22% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.18% Networking, IGN
0.17% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.15% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.14% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.14% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.13% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.13% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.10% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.06% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.06% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.05% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.05% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.05% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.05% India PS, PIN
0.04% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.04% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.03% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.00% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.00% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.00% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.02% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.02% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.02% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.03% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.03% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.03% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.04% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.04% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.04% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.05% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.06% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.08% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.08% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.09% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.09% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.10% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.10% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.10% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.11% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.12% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.12% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.13% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.13% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.13% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.13% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.14% Canada Index, EWC
-0.15% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.17% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.20% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.20% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.20% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.21% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.21% Dividend International, PID
-0.23% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.23% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.23% Water Resources, PHO
-0.24% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.24% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.25% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.25% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.25% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.25% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-0.27% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.27% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.29% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.32% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.32% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.32% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.33% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.34% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.35% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.37% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.39% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.40% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.43% Global 100, IOO
-0.43% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.44% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.44% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.49% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.53% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.54% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.55% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.56% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.60% Italy Index, EWI
-0.61% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.63% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.68% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.70% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.72% France Index, EWQ
-0.72% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.73% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.76% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.79% Energy Global, IXC
-0.79% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.80% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.80% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.81% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.84% Germany Index, EWG
-0.86% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.96% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.97% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.98% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.99% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.03% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.05% Australia Index, EWA
-1.07% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.07% Spain Index, EWP
-1.08% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-1.14% Russia MV, RSX
-1.15% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.19% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.19% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.19% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.37% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.49% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.55% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-1.57% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.72% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.77% Taiwan Index, EWT