Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) confirmed a bullish trend. GLD rose above the highs of the previous 8 weeks on 1/31/12 and broke out above a 4-month downtrend line on 1/25/12. GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/23/12. GLD remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,312.41) fell 0.05% on Tuesday. That was the fourth consecutive lower daily close price.

Despite recent price weakness for SPX, its 50-day SMA crossed above its 200-day SMA, thanks to lower numbers dropping out of the moving 50-day window. This “Golden Cross” is widely believed to offer a bullish trend confirmation. Most people don’t seem to realize that there are a majority of unprofitable whipsaws using the “Golden Cross”. This may be one.

It is clear that the January rally has lost steam. Bearish divergences have been evident in short-term momentum indicators.

RSI(14) fell below the readings of the previous 10 trading days and fell further below a 5-week uptrend line.

The latest sentiment data indicates more optimism and bullish complacency. When the majority of investors is bullish, and therefore already invested in the market, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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AAII Sentiment: There were 48% Bulls and 19% Bears, according to the AAII weekly survey reported on 1/26/11. That was an uptick in mood from the previous week’s reading, and it was nearly 1.3 standard deviations more optimistic than the 20-year average.

VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 5 months on 1/26/12, hitting 16.80 intraday. That is down from recent peaks of 30.91 on 12/8/11, 37.83 on 11/1/11, 46.88 on 10/4/11, and 48.00 on 8/8/11. This drop indicates a shift away from fear and toward confidence, which, according to Humphrey Bancroft Neill’s Art of Contrary Thinking, may be bearish. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1349.31, Fibonacci 87.5% projection 10/11 range
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1333.47, high of 1/26/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1300.49, low of 1/30/2012
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.19, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) rose back above its 50-day SMA on 1/30/12, turning technically bullish again. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend for the longer term. Support 115.55, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 121.64, 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 1/31/12. IEF remains above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend. Support 104.00, 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/18/12 but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/19/12 but remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) confirmed a downside correction on 1/27/12. UUP fell below the lows of the previous 8 weeks on 1/27/12 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 1/23/11, turning technically neutral. UUP remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.97, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.41, 22.46, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 4 trading days on 1/30/21. DBA remains neutral, above its 50-day SMA but below its 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) has been correcting and consolidating over the past 18 trading days. USO broke out above the highs of the previous 7 months on 1/4/12, thereby confirming a major uptrend. Support 37.49, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.96, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) confirmed a bullish trend. GLD rose above the highs of the previous 8 weeks on 1/31/12 and broke out above a 4-month downtrend line on 1/25/12. GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/23/12. GLD remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 167.05, 160.29, 159.68, 158.01, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 170.80, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 3 years on 1/24/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. GDX/GLD remains bearishly below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) confirmed a bullish short-term trend. SLV rose above the highs of the previous 10 weeks on 1/27/12 and rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12. SLV remains below its falling 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 30.67, 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) has been rising since 12/28/11. SLV/GLD rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 1/27/12. SLV/GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12 but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV/GLD fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/28/11, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) whipsawed back below its 200-day SMA on 1/30/12, turning technically neutral. Longer term, JJC’s 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.31% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
0.38% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
6.20% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
5.08% , X , US STEEL CORP
3.85% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
0.82% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
1.09% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
2.37% , MDP , MEREDITH
3.54% , TYC , TYCO INTL
0.59% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.01% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
3.35% , UIS , UNISYS
0.64% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
2.29% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
1.84% , SEE , SEALED AIR
2.25% , COH , COACH
0.51% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
2.09% , HES , AMERADA HESS
2.14% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
1.19% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
0.81% , VWO , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.49% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
1.41% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
0.30% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
2.67% , MBI , MBIA
0.73% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
0.12% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
1.06% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
1.01% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
2.41% , NCR , NCR
1.24% , EP , EL PASO
1.42% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
1.02% , TJX , TJX

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-29.81% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-10.79% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
-9.31% , TLAB , TELLABS
-5.40% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
-5.63% , BBY , BEST BUY
-3.64% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
-1.30% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-6.37% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-7.68% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-3.24% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
-4.29% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-2.27% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-4.45% , KBH , KB HOME
-1.17% , AVP , AVON
-2.01% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-3.13% , DYN , DYNEGY
-2.76% , WPO , Washington Post
-1.50% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
-2.94% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-2.01% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
-0.35% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-1.80% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
-1.59% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-1.85% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-3.18% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-1.43% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.65% , IR , INGER RAND
-5.48% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
-2.33% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
-1.38% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
-0.96% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
-2.05% , XOM , EXXON MOBIL
-2.75% , KMX , CarMax
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.00% India PS, PIN
1.84% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.80% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.42% South Africa Index, EZA
1.16% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.09% Austria Index, EWO
1.03% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.01% Italy Index, EWI
1.01% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.94% China 25 iS, FXI
0.86% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.82% France Index, EWQ
0.81% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.79% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.76% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.72% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.70% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.69% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.68% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.66% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.65% Singapore Index, EWS
0.65% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.65% European VIPERs, VGK
0.62% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.61% South Korea Index, EWY
0.59% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.58% Japan Index, EWJ
0.58% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.57% Russia MV, RSX
0.52% EAFE Index, EFA
0.51% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.50% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.49% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.49% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.48% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.47% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.45% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.45% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.45% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.44% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.42% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.40% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.39% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.38% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.38% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.37% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.36% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.32% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.29% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.29% Spain Index, EWP
0.29% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.25% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.23% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.22% Sweden Index, EWD
0.22% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.21% Australia Index, EWA
0.21% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.20% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.19% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.19% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.18% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.17% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.14% Canada Index, EWC
0.14% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.13% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.13% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.12% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.11% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.11% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.10% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.10% Global 100, IOO
0.10% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.09% Belgium Index, EWK
0.08% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.08% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.07% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.06% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.06% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.05% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.05% Germany Index, EWG
0.05% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.04% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.03% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.00% Water Resources, PHO
0.00% Dividend International, PID
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.02% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.02% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.02% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.02% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.02% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.02% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.03% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.04% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.04% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.06% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.07% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.08% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.08% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.09% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.10% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.10% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.10% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.10% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.11% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.11% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.12% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.12% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.13% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.13% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.14% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.14% Networking, IGN
-0.15% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.15% Energy Global, IXC
-0.16% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.16% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.17% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.23% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.24% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.25% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.25% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.25% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.25% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.30% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.37% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.42% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.42% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.47% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.50% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.60% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.63% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.71% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.77% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.78% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.83% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.33% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.41% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.43% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.87% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW