The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/9/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months.
Also confirming 18-month new highs were the NASDAQ Composite, S&P 100, S&P 500, and Russell 1000 Value stock price indexes.
Advance-Decline Lines for the NYSE, NASDAQ, and ASE confirmed new highs.
Consumer Discretionary, Industrial, Financial, and Technology Stock Sectors moved above 17-month new highs and remain bullish.
79% of NYSE stocks and 69% of NASDAQ stocks are in Point-and-Figure chart uptrends.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) fell to a 5-month low. IWF/IWD remains below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. In contrast, absolute price of IWF rose above 18-month highs on 4/9/10 and remains bullish. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.
Health Care Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 4-month lows.
Gold nearest futures contract broke out above 4-month highs, confirming the beginning of another up wave in a major bull market.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
71.47% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
1.98% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
3.36% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
4.97% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
0.87% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
4.48% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
3.52% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
3.74% , VIA.B , VIACOM STK B
4.42% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
0.74% , SDY , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.84% , MDP , MEREDITH
3.42% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
4.81% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
0.81% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
1.11% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
4.54% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
3.10% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
1.53% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
2.95% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
1.72% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
0.91% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
1.54% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
1.85% , MBI , MBIA
1.93% , VFC , VF
3.74% , WFMI , Whole Foods Market Inc
0.74% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
0.62% , ELV , Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
0.54% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
1.74% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
1.18% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
1.97% , SWK , STANLEY WORKS
0.57% , PTE , Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
0.86% , PIN , India PS, PIN
0.75% , GR , GOODRICH CORP
1.31% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
2.37% , CVX , CHEVRONTEXACO
0.58% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
2.40% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
0.31% , NI , NISOURCE
1.53% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.23% , AA , ALCOA
-1.32% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
-1.82% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-0.98% , MOLX , MOLEX
-2.55% , HUM , HUMANA
-0.74% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-1.30% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-1.98% , KG , KING PHARM
-1.69% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-0.20% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.38% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-0.66% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-1.93% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
-2.48% , X , US STEEL CORP
-0.72% , TER , TERADYNE
-0.65% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.21% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-1.10% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-1.27% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-0.54% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
-0.15% , PGN , PROGRESS ENERGY
-0.45% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-0.07% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-0.34% , CL , COLGATE
-0.61% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-0.75% , NBR , NABORS
-0.24% , PWER , POWER ONE
-0.56% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
-0.38% , EXC , EXELON CORP
-0.14% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-0.27% , CBE , COOPER INDS STK A
-1.19% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
-0.75% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
-0.22% , GOOG , Google
-0.04% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 4-year highs on 4/9/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY closed above 17-month closing price highs on 4/9/10 and remains bullish. Support 33.15, 31.94, 31.66, 30.99, 29.90, 29.25, 28.66, 28.21 and 26.62. Resistance 33.76 and 34.50.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 16-month highs on 3/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI moved above 17-month highs on 4/9/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.27, 29.79, 29.60, and 28.15. Resistance 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above 6-month highs on 4/8/10. Although XLF/SPY is above both moving averages, the 50 remains below the 200, which is not bullish. Absolute price of XLF moved above 17-month highs on 4/9/10 and remains bullish. Support 16.22, 15.52, 15.37, and 15.12. Resistance 16.77, 17.16, and 17.87.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 11-week highs and rose above both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages on 4/5/10. But XLB/SPY is only neutral because the 50 is below the 200. Absolute price of XLB rose above 12-week highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. Support 33.40, 32.85, and 32.58. Resistance 35.38 and 37.10.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) turned bearish on 4/1/10 when it broke down below 4-week lows and broke down below 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price broke to a new 19-month high on 4/9/10 and remains bullish. Support 23.07, 22.90, 22.66, 22.52, 21.30, 20.71, 20.46 and 20.09. Resistance 23.83 and 24.68.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) broke down below 2-month lows on 4/9/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLP moved above 17-month highs on 3/30/10 and remains bullish. Support 27.76, 27.23, 26.82, 26.49, 26.04, 25.93 and 25.71. Resistance 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 4-month lows on 4/9/10 but still remains technically neutral because the 50-day is still above the 200-day simple moving average. Absolute price of XLV fell below 4-week lows on 4/8/10 but still remains bullish relative to 50- and 200-day averages. Support 31.83, 31.46, 31.00, 30.27, 30.65 and 29.55. Resistance 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below 17-month lows on 3/25/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLE broke out above 3-month highs on 4/9/10. The price trend is bullish. Support 58.27, 54.72, 52.67 and 51.34. Resistance 59.90 and 60.87.
Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell further below 2-year lows on 3/25/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU has been neutral most of the time since the peak on 12/14/09. Support 29.30, 28.45, and 28.10. Resistance 31.30, 31.64 and 32.08.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 10 weeks on 4/5/10. EEM/SPY is now above 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, but the 50 remains below the 200, which is not favorable. Absolute price of EEM rose above its highs of the previous 20 months on 4/9/10 and remains bullish.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 7 weeks on 4/1/10 but is only neutral, with the 50- below the 200-day simple moving average. Absolute price of EFA rose above its highs of the previous 10 weeks on 4/5/10 and remains bullish.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 3/10/10 and remains in bullish position above rising 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is above the 200. Absolute price of the NASDAQ closed above 18-month highs on 4/9/10 and is in bullish position relative to moving averages.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) fell to a 5-month low on 4/9/10. IWF/IWD remains below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. In contrast, absolute price of IWF rose above 18-month highs on 4/9/10 and remains bullish. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.
Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 4/9/10 and is bullish. Absolute price of IWD rose above 17-month highs on 4/9/10 and is bullish.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above previous 6-year highs on 4/5/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP rose above 18-month highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) broke down below the lows of the previous 21 months on 4/6/10. OEX/SPX remains bearish below its falling 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is below the 200. Conflicting with this bearish Relative Strength trend, absolute price of OEX remains bullish relative to its moving averages.
The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 17-month highs on 4/7/10. Absolute price of IWM rose further above 17-month highs on 4/6/10. Both remain in bullish position relative to key moving averages.
The Mid Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of MDY rose above 17-month highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price broke out above previous 18-month highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. Support 78.86, 77.05, 76.71, 72.60, 69.50, 68.59 and 65.05. Resistance 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract broke out above 4-month highs on 4/9/10, confirming the beginning of another upwave in a major bull market. Support 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance 1163.0, 1170.2, 1196.8 and 1226.4.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has turned neutral for the intermediate-term trend after stabilizing since making a low on 1/29/10. Longer term, the trend appears unfavorable, since gold mining stocks have underperformed gold bullion since 9/17/09.
Silver/Gold Ratio has partially recovered since making a low on 2/8/10 and has improved from bearish to neutral.
Copper nearest futures contract price broke out to a new 20-month high on 4/5/10. Copper has been in a strong trend since 12/08. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 3.29, 3.1505, 3.034, and 2.811. Resistance 3.795 and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell sharply below 10-month lows on 4/5/10 and remains bearish. Support 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 118.12, 119.18, 120.11 and 123.18.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 10-week highs on 4/9/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of JNK also rose above 10-week highs on 3/30/10 and remains bullish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned slightly bullish on 3/25/10, when TIP/IEF rose above 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. This means investors now prefer a bit more inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP fell below its 50-day simple moving average on 2/9/10 and is not bullish.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price has had a minor consolidation in a major uptrend since peaking at 82.52 on 3/25/10. A minor consolidation is normal in an major uptrend and carries little significance. USD rose above its 10-month trading range on 3/25/10, which was significant. USD remains bullish. Support 80.775, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 82.52, 83.145 and 83.335.
The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 48.9% Bulls versus 18.9% Bears as of 4/7/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 2.59, up from 2.53 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio is still below its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
VIX Fear Index fell to a 22-month low of 16.08 on 4/6/10. A low and falling VIX suggests bullish complacency. VIX is down from a closing high of 80.86 set on 11/20/08. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
VXN Fear Index fell to a 31-month low of 16.54 on 4/9/10. A low and falling VXN suggests bullish complacency. VXN is down from a closing high of 80.64 set on 11/20/08. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.
ISEE Call/Put Ratio has been consistently neutral in recent months: its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which is two standard deviations from the mean.
CBOE Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.43 on 4/5/10, a low level that indicates significant bullish sentiment, which might be taken as a caution sign. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which is two standard deviations from the mean.
The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/9/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) absolute price rose above 18-month highs on 4/9/10, again confirming its bullish trend. Support 1175.12, 1141.45, 1116.11, 1086.02, 1078.46, 1069.97, 1044.50, 1036.31 and 1029.54. Resistance 1220.03 and 1228.74.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1175.12, low of 4/9/2010
1141.45, low of 3/15/2010
1116.11, high of 3/1/2010
1086.95, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1086.02, low of 2/25/2010
1078.46, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1069.97, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1036.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-2010 range
1029.54, Gann 25.0% of 2009-2010 range
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
969.08, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
965.69, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
908.62, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
851.55, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.36% Spain Index, EWP
2.37% Austria Index, EWO
1.95% European VIPERs, VGK
1.88% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.87% China 25 iS, FXI
1.82% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.81% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.76% France Index, EWQ
1.74% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.72% Italy Index, EWI
1.69% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.67% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.64% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.58% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.53% Belgium Index, EWK
1.50% Russia MV, RSX
1.46% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.41% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.37% Germany Index, EWG
1.36% Mexico Index, EWW
1.36% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.35% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.33% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.31% EAFE Index, EFA
1.24% Energy Global, IXC
1.18% Global 100, IOO
1.18% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.15% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.11% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.10% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
1.10% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.09% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.08% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.06% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.04% Dividend International, PID
1.02% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.00% Energy DJ, IYE
0.99% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.98% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.98% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.92% Sweden Index, EWD
0.88% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.86% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.86% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.86% India PS, PIN
0.86% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.84% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.81% Australia Index, EWA
0.80% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.80% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.78% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.78% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.78% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.77% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.75% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.75% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.74% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.74% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.74% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.74% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.73% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.72% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.72% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.69% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.69% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.69% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.68% Singapore Index, EWS
0.68% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.67% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.66% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.66% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.65% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.65% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.63% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.62% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.61% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.61% Networking, IGN
0.61% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.61% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.61% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.61% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.60% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.60% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.60% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.60% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.59% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.58% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.58% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.57% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.57% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.57% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.56% Canada Index, EWC
0.56% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.54% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.54% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.53% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.53% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.52% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.51% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.50% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.50% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.48% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.48% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.47% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.47% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.44% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.39% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.37% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.37% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.36% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.35% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.34% South Africa Index, EZA
0.34% Water Resources, PHO
0.32% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.28% Japan Index, EWJ
0.25% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.24% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.22% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.21% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.19% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.17% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.15% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.15% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.11% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.11% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.11% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.11% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.07% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.04% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.04% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.07% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.20% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.44% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.65% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.69% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
