Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/19/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/19/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish.
U.S. stock market price indexes attempted a small, low-volume rally in the first 31 minutes on Monday. By 10:02 a.m., prices had started a slide that lasted all day. The market again closed weakly, below the open, below the previous day’s close, and below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,646.06) closed below its lowest closes of the previous 5 weeks, down 0.59%. It also closed below its widely-watched 50-day SMA for the second consecutive session. SPX is now below its May highs, which suggests a loss of upside price momentum for the medium term. Short-term daily momentum is obviously bearish since SPX closed at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13.
NYSE total volume fell 9% to a level 13% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE fell again. Both closed below their 50-day SMAs and below their lowest closes of the previous 6 weeks. Previously, in July and so far in August, both Volume and Breadth lines failed to rise above their May highs; the S&P 500 rose to a new high at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13, but Volume and Breadth did not rise to higher highs. Therefore, both Volume and Breadth warned of bearish divergence relative to the price indexes.
The Net Number of New Highs-Lows turned negative on Thursday and grew more negative since then, that is, there have been a shrinking number of New Highs and an increasing number of New Lows. Previously, the Net Number remained far below its May high at the August price highs, thereby warning of bearish divergence relative to the price indexes.
Popular price momentum oscillators based on SPX, such as RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9), also remain bearishly divergent compared to price.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs. Both Averages fell below their 50-day SMAs on 8/15/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) remains systematically neutral, although its trend appears to be changing in a more bullish direction. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/13/13.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/14/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, however, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/19/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/19/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/2/13, and the 50-day SMA could be heading toward a possible bearish cross below the 200-day SMA in weeks ahead. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price is systematically neutral above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, DBA fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a systematically bullish trend above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. In recent weeks, however, USO price has stalled out below its peak of 38.62 on 7/19/13. Support 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 38.62, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, so the long-term trend may be doubtful. GLD may be consolidating losses within its longer term downtrend: price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD price trend was bearish since price peaked at 185.85 on 9/6/11 until price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, and that down trend may not be finished. Support: 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, so the long-term trend may be doubtful. SLV may be consolidating losses within its longer term downtrend: SLV price trend was bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11 until price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, and that down trend may not be finished. Support 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, and that long-term down trend may not be over.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, so the long-term trend may be doubtful. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13, and that long-term down trend may not be over. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.75% PGJ China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.23% MPEL Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
1.67% NKE NIKE STK B
1.67% INTC INTEL
0.78% PST 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
1.08% AAPL APPLE COMPUTER
0.65% CHD Church & Dwight
1.68% TBT 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
0.45% URBN Urban Outfitters Inc.
0.77% GRMN GARMIN LTD
0.55% MJN Mead Johnson Nutrition
1.19% BBY BEST BUY
1.31% PETM PETsMART Inc
0.63% SH Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.65% ROST Ross Stores Inc
0.24% QID Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.37% CAG CONAGRA FOODS
0.17% PLL PALL
0.12% DLX DELUXE
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.97% THD Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.09% ECH Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.93% EWM Malaysia Index, EWM
-6.86% IDX Indonesia MV, IDX
-3.53% TUR Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.71% SWK Stanley Black & Decker
-2.58% EWP Spain Index, EWP
-4.58% APA APACHE
-1.35% IYF Financial DJ US, IYF
-4.82% MRO MARATHON OIL
-5.70% MTG MGIC INVESTMENT
-0.71% SOXX Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-3.00% EWI Italy Index, EWI
-0.83% PRF Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
-0.54% VIS Industrials VIPERs, VIS
-0.82% IGV Software, IGV
-2.55% PBW WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.78% EZA South Africa Index, EZA
-4.53% GNW GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-4.21% EPI India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.76% DDS DILLARD STK A
-4.19% LPX LOUISIANA PAC
-1.00% PID Dividend International, PID
-1.26% IYG Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.14% CBS CBS CORP.
-1.55% ILF Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.61% DBO Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-2.74% JPM J P MORGAN CHASE
-1.14% SJM J. M. Smucker
-2.31% XHB Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.22% IWN Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.34% AES AES
-1.31% TMK TORCHMARK
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.84% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.75% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.63% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.18% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.01% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.11% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.18% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.21% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.22% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.26% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.28% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.28% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.30% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.30% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.30% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.31% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.31% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.34% Russia MV, RSX
-0.34% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.37% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.39% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.39% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.42% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.43% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.43% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.43% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.45% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.47% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.49% Germany Index, EWG
-0.50% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.50% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.51% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.51% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.53% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.54% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.55% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.59% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.60% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.60% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.60% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.60% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.61% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.63% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.64% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.64% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.64% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.65% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.66% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.66% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.68% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.68% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.68% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.68% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.69% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.71% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.71% Water Resources, PHO
-0.71% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.71% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.72% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.73% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.74% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.75% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.78% Global 100, IOO
-0.79% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.79% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.81% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.82% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.82% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.83% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.84% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.85% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.87% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.87% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.87% Australia Index, EWA
-0.87% Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.88% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.88% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.89% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.89% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.89% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.89% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.89% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.89% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.90% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.90% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.91% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.91% Austria Index, EWO
-0.91% France Index, EWQ
-0.92% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.93% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.98% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.00% Dividend International, PID
-1.00% Financial Preferred, PGF
-1.01% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.01% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.01% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.01% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-1.02% Networking, IGN
-1.02% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.04% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.07% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.07% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.13% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.15% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-1.18% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.22% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.22% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.26% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.26% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.32% Canada Index, EWC
-1.32% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.32% Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.35% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.36% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-1.36% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.37% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.40% Energy Global, IXC
-1.44% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.48% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.51% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.54% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.55% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.59% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.67% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.67% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.88% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.93% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.96% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.09% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-2.31% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.32% Mexico Index, EWW
-2.55% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.58% Spain Index, EWP
-2.65% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.78% South Africa Index, EZA
-3.00% Italy Index, EWI
-3.53% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-4.17% India PS, PIN
-4.21% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-4.97% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-6.86% Indonesia MV, IDX
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1658.59, low of 8/15/2013
1657.45, 50-day SMA
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1551.10, 200-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
